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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just been looking at the GEFS 6z mean and it doesn't show any mild weather after today, it's varying degrees of cold throughout and for most of the run indicates scandi trough and mid atlantic ridge with a generally meridional pattern meaning plenty of opportunities for snow just about anywhere and lots of cold, frosty and icy nights. Further to that, mogreps / GloSea5 must still be painting a wintry picture in the mid / longer range too with no realistic sign of a return to milder, flatter zonal atlantic / azores driven pattern in sight..looking very good for the coldies I must say!:cold::wink::santa-emoji:

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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Fingers said:

    Heights higher over Greenland pushing the low on a more southerly trajectory again. Correction south again??? 

    it looked that way then as blue said it engages with the upper trough and swings back - 12z is poor for the south-not sure about the midlands could even be dodgy for the midlands..

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    it looked that way then as blue said it engages with the upper trough and swings back - 12z is poor for the south-not sure about the midlands could even be dodgy for the midlands..

    12z is an upgrade for the midlands comparing it with the 06z. Big improvements in particular for North Wales and the North West midlands.

    Edited by MKN
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Much  better 12z!!definately gone further south!!if it keeps doin that each time eventually the m4 corridor will be involved aswell!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    The Aperge 06z would have been an all snow event for the SE it was about 75 miles south of its 00z which was snowy as well but turning to rain in the extreme SE

    here was the 06z T72 - great allignment-

    IMG_2197.thumb.PNG.8746eb3f86188e3b0c4ae80c5e810411.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    3 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Much  better 12z!!definately gone further south!!if it keeps doin that each time eventually the m4 corridor will be involved aswell!

    Hopefully if it goes further south the majority will stay in the cold air and see further chances for snow down the line 

    Edited by MKN
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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    GFS good for here in Yorkshire, models seem to be giving the system a pivot as it passes over so some areas could be well favoured. For the South East (and I only just moved from there so I know your pain), it looks like Monday might be the time you get in on the act, temperatures being just too high before that.

    Overall, not a particularly snowy run compared to some others, though.

    90-780UK_lme5.GIF

    Edited by ukpaul
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    To slide or not to slide that is the question! !:rofl:Anyway still mulling over GP and tamaras points and looking threw various strat sites and usa discussion looks a good call 

    Good stuff

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Gfs provides an alternative solution so best to wait for the ukmo, gem and ecm

    of course, even if they all disagree we will be left thinking ‘wonder if gfs is into something ‘ ...........

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO at t96 doesn't fully agree with GFS amazing how close to the wire this is going

    gfs-0-96.thumb.png.cedd2a41382fce72eb50107d66ec4371.pngUW96-21.thumb.GIF.350258f6b76b6619d287b732079dceaa.GIF

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    No UKMO 48 but the 12z sees a big adjustment south - Exit point somewhere around sussex although hard to tell

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    No UKMO 48 but the 12z sees a big adjustment south - Exit point somewhere around sussex although hard to tell

     

    UKMO t48 below

    UW48-21.thumb.GIF.c4f582c23d6c0e3581adc581b13066b6.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    ukmo 72 - 96

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

     

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    last chart looks a bit interesting!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO at t96 doesn't fully agree with GFS amazing how close to the wire this is going

    gfs-0-96.thumb.png.cedd2a41382fce72eb50107d66ec4371.pngUW96-21.thumb.GIF.350258f6b76b6619d287b732079dceaa.GIF

    UKMO 12z almost a match for the GFS 6z.

    gfs-0-102_tlo1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    Ukmo T72 is complicated 

    3BD450EC-C147-4DAA-ACEB-049381FAADDA.thumb.jpeg.3fc3dddcbc51849af94e0f7f8b7348c4.jpeg

     

    Whats your take on it blue- the 96 hr chart looks either very very snowy or very very rainy!!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Whats your take on it blue- the 96 hr chart looks either very very snowy or very very rainy!!

    I reckon pretty rainy although further north could be white stuff higher up off the easterly flow 

    i doubt the detail of that system is well modelled as yet - it didn’t really exist 36 hours ago on the nwp! 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    12z looking a bit flat at the 150 hr mark ridging not really kicking in.that said pv not really building to any degree

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

    Meto state they are using Ensembles from ECM and UKMO, latest graphics on BBC bring the snow further south into Southeast Wales, so much to play for for everyone in Wales, SW England , Southern England , Midlands and possibly South east too

    So although in interested in the trends set by GFS i am more looking for changes in trend from ECM

    We also have interesting synoptics later next week showing up

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    3 hours ago, West is Best said:

    I have to say, that I think this is the form horse. It depends how quickly and deeply the arctic air entrenches. But this doesn't look to me like an east-west trajectory at all. I wouldn't be all that surprised if only Devon and Cornwall see the precipitation to be frank. It has happened before. Infamously, if I recall, on 5th-6th February 2009 when right up to the last minute the MetO and all models were predicting the incoming low to sweep across southern Britain and the Midlands. In fact, only Devon and Cornwall copped it:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/feb/06/cars-stranded-devon-snow

    I was fortunate enough to be there at the time and it was magnifique :) Here you go with the charts. Look at all familiar?

     

    5a293ebe3ce11_ScreenShot2017-12-07at13_13_36.thumb.png.2cbee570269c1cd49b430ed491857d3b.png

    5a293ec8ece94_ScreenShot2017-12-07at13_13_52.thumb.png.1cbc89d7b72b0bc2e2aa4a0e1f9f787a.png

    5a293ed3e4cbc_ScreenShot2017-12-07at13_14_06.thumb.png.8c31ea5942794ac24ec58fac22784cdb.png

    Now you really are teasing WIB, to date that's the best snow event I've had in the 20 odd years of living in the soggy SW. Bit of a difference though, in 2009 it was already cold and had been for quite a few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Could be an interesting wrap-in of cold air around that low on the UKMO +96. 

    Curious how GFS saw that feature on the 06z but has lost it again on the 12z.

     

    Further out in time, 12z GFS looks a little better aligned with the Canadian trough for throwing the mid-Atlantic ridge to Scandinavia with decent strength;

    gfsnh-0-168.png?12 gfsnh-0-174.png?6

    7 days range, so far enough away for details to be of little significance, but with the broader-scale corrections being of some note.

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    Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
    Just now, swfc said:

    12z looking a bit flat at the 150 hr mark ridging not really kicking in.that said pv not really building to any degree

    It just takes a little longer for the ridge to go up, but I would say that the low is better tilted in this run so the heights should go higher up

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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