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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    its absolutely hideous for the midlands south- gales and driving rain- YUK!!

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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    its absolutely hideous for the midlands south- gales and driving rain- YUK!!

    What do you expect, it is winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    Possibility of heavy rain and windy conditions in the south on Monday with a deep low just over the channel.

    gfs-0-99-3h.png?6

    But I would reduce FI to about 72 hours at the moment regarding these lows.

    How is this going to be wind and rain when we are meant to be under freezing cold air from here on?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Any charts of snow totals from the latest track?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    How is this going to be wind and rain when we are meant to be under freezing cold air from here on?

    6Z hopefully will be an outlier solution- the chart on monday has the colder uppers mixed out- so probably will be rain for most..

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    6 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

    Now thats much better 

    If the initial slider is further North prospects of remaining cold for all of us are reduced. So be careful what you wish for. Better off the first low sliding south with the likelihood of further snow piling into northern areas mon into tues. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    Though yesterday’s 12z was less enthusiastic and yesterday’s 00z was binary clusters of flat zonal and very amplified 

    however, this mornings does have a more convincing zonal look to it. Will wait for the clusters 

    And we had a lot of posts last night along the lines of:

    "All route lead to cold",

    "Cold spell will be protracted"

    "The cold keeps coming"

    "Ensembles are in good agreement til 20th Dec".

    A few hours is long time in weather....... Having said that, GP's update a few posts up as well as Tamara's, are good news for cold lovers, not forgetting the latest MetOffice extended update which is the most "wintry" I've seen for a while.

    So despite this 'more convincing look of zonal' we appear to have a lot of cards stacked in our favour.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

    The Gfs has blown this low up which it tends to do from time to time and Imo isn't going to happen. The result would be a southward correction on the 12z 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Ali1977 said:

    Any charts of snow totals from the latest track?

    I don't think anyone cares now :rofl:

    We might be able to get back on topic at long last 

    Keeping an eye on this little feature, could bring some disruptive weather for the south coast.

    96-515.thumb.gif.09db109b6b6ed538f37a21fd2245f9a7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Yes, the northern half of the country now looks more likely to do well out of this slider.. Enjoy :)

    How on Earth are you basing that on GFS 6z alone? 

    The EC this morning is much further S similarly ARPEGE model the overall trend is more a southern track compared to one which delivers nothing for the Midlands. 

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    How on Earth are you basing that on GFS 6z alone? 

    The EC this morning is much further S similarly ARPEGE model the overall trend is more a southern track compared to one which delivers nothing for the Midlands. 

    Hold your horses Daniel, I was merely commenting on the one run that is churning out. Don't start on me just because the GFS has shown a more northerly track! Try living down south where we celebrate a frost!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    6Z hopefully will be an outlier solution- the chart on monday has the colder uppers mixed out- so probably will be rain for most..

    I think you need to get off the rollercoaster mate! The 06z is not really any different to the 00z so far and we have lots of wintry weather in the near future and beyond. 

    This is fantastic model watching, and a time to keep emotions in check and enjoy the output.

    I mean look at this at T+168 from the 06z - we'd have given our right arms for charts like this last year. There really is little we can complain about in the grand scheme of things.

    GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    IMG_0741.thumb.PNG.cc54f1bceab5d8f4f69e5bbee6f40975.PNGLet's hope the GFS 6z is of the mark a deeper low and very wet down here ?. It's all a bit messy. 

    Ps there's a blog on BBC website about La Niña and could be in for a very cold winter . There mentioning 2010 ?. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    Hold your horses Daniel, I was merely commenting on the one run that is churning out. Don't start on me just because the GFS has shown a more northerly track! Try living down south where we celebrate a frost!

     

     

    Well I’m perfectly calm, but it’s unwise to make an general assertion that’s what it sounded to me. The truth is we will not know till Saturday with a good sense of confidence of the track as what some jabs said, sometimes it comes to nowcasting I’ve known it to up end up 50-100 miles off, either side north or south.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    14 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    How is this going to be wind and rain when we are meant to be under freezing cold air from here on?

    Was wondering that too, just isn't especially cold in the east yet. We'll see, the dry continental air  may drop dew points enough, but we won't really know till t0 probably.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    My view from the ecm op is it looks much more slidy than previous runs as the frontal precipitation slides along the ridge ahead of it rather than pushing more w/e as was the case on the previous runs.  Gfs 06z still has more w/e momentum so we have to wait until the 12z runs to see if this ecm repeats. The latest fax charts look more slidy aswell 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham
    17 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    How is this going to be wind and rain when we are meant to be under freezing cold air from here on?

    Because on this run its further North, the track through the UK wont be accurately modelled until Saturday at best, anything until then is guesswork really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    3 minutes ago, Steady Easterly said:

    Because on this run its further North, the track through the UK wont be accurately modelled until Saturday at best, anything until then is guesswork really.

    So is this basically just pulling in warmer air with it from the South?

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    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

    The models have been consistent - a brief northwesterly followed by colder cyclonic conditions - far too marginal for widespread lowland snow - and we stay like this through next week followed by another weekend northerly - really good modelling imho.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oh dear me...the GFS has shifted the slider so far to the 'south' that its associated less-cold air crosses the Scottish Border...This model really does need a good talking to!:D

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Good grief this "slider"is bringing out such panic you would think there was an impending ebloa outbreak on the way fgs chill out!!!.Anyway 6z keeps the cold theme going be it 850s are a bit mixed out.Still pretty good and all to play for going forward after "slider gate" departs

    GP analysis is worth taking note of and may steady the nerves on here!!!

    Edited by swfc
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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