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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

18z tracking a bit further north- so the northern contingent will be happy :)

We ain’t happy Steve!! 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

+3 waves..

propping up the lps/slider...

Another variation...

Tweaked north...

Screenshot_2017-12-06-21-52-23.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Yes,as others have said,further north on this run,there will be corrections,even this far out.

gfsnh-0-84.png?18gfsnh-0-90.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

The reason why the slider is further N is due to weak +ve heights in the Greenland area are more diluted compared to 12z thus its not forced south as much this can easily evolve. 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Another shift  I think  and ill stick my neck out.  We will get something between the Ecm and Gfs 18z    my call will be the middle third of the country  with perhaps  south Yorkshire getting the brunt of it.  

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

18z further north happy days 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Might give even the southeast some snow on this chart 

3E140F9F-84E6-4D7C-9F69-AF50AE60F415.png

looks good, but no expert, looks slight negative tilt, needs to move SSE though not SE

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Yes slight shift north on the 18z but all subject to change

You guys down south be carefull what you wish for? Couple inch of snow and you lot be stranded and making national news headlines! !!:rofl:

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Any new members on here you might want to bookmark the below site it has lots of interactive tools from snow cover to pressure to wind gusts and more

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.7;-1.1;4&l=snow

Amazing link! Thank you

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Dont worry mate 06z & 18z =early blocking fail 

wait to the 00z

post that GFS now alligning similar to the ECM Demonstrating this could be a LONG cold spell-

Steve you reckon we get heights slightly higher again on the 00z run around iceland!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The reason why the slider is further N is due to weak +ve heights in the Greenland area are more diluted compared to 12z thus its not forced south as much this can easily evolve. 

+ve heights are weaker @greenland on 18z.

Although there is more energy modeledoff the south west..

This will 'impede' the track and hold things on a more northern slant/exaction 

Edit: and just yet a few more complexities, that are YET To be resolved.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
12 minutes ago, radiohead said:

The next low, south of Greenland, has also shifted north.

I think the bigger picture is okay, no surprises there though. The Azores high looks slower to creep north on this run if it does.

image.thumb.png.b5e328a775f811d7b012ea71dff580f8.png

Though its very similar in the earlier stages, I wouldn't be a paranoid android just yet.

This model output watching is giving me the bends though. Lets hope we don't get left high and dry. Hopefully we can get everything in its right place.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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