Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Right enough of this shameless ramping! :D

    I’d advise people remain cautious and not start picking out hats for the snowman till the track of the slider and depth of cold gets within T48 hrs.

    The same thing happened with the GFS super blizzard which met a tragic end.

    I know it’s hard and it’s exciting because snow has been so rare in recent winters but I have several counselors off on holiday at the moment and the NW helpline simply won’t cope if it goes pear shaped ! :cold-emoji:

    Ha ha everybody needs to take it run by run,step by step,day by day let's just enjoy the ride.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.7k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    I hate bringing a word of caution re. FI on the GFS, but ...

    5a2857cc1c322_ScreenShot2017-12-06at20_48_16.thumb.png.9b0434e960bfc903f03d5b2e6db78efc.png

    I'd like to see a lot more agreement for the cold. However, ECM is great so here's hoping. Meanwhile, a tasty cold weekend brewing here :)

     

    You are never going to get a clean cut through the ens out to the end,and they look pretty good flatlining(majority)>-5

    anyway,news just in and nothing has changed from prev days wave 5 pattern

     

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    1 hour ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

    No BOM in those stats :D


    BOM is the gold standard they use to be compared with by the other models. It always has a perfect 1.00 score.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    You are never going to get a clean cut through the ens out to the end,and they look pretty good flatlining(majority)>-5

    anyway,news just in and nothing has changed from prev days wave 5 pattern

     

     

    Thanks for this - a rare sight indeed, when did we last see a classic 5 wave pattern - I can't remember, long time that cold in east USA/E canada has also occured with cold here.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    You are never going to get a clean cut through the ens out to the end,and they look pretty good flatlining(majority)>-5

    anyway,news just in and nothing has changed from prev days wave 5 pattern

     

     

    @rossby waves!..

    Tut-tar mr jet!....

    Anyway much lies ahead' and like a broken record!..

    Pointless atm of exacting on the first slider incoming [email protected]/placement/overhead bearings.

    This is a wide open as they come(and usualy are)!.

    1-things for almost certain some will be making the news -weekend-early next week!??..

    Fridays all round suites are the defining line for me...

    Meantime try to gage' some definition on the incoming wintry weather....

    And chill a tad!!?

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    ECM eps are an absolute stonker and an upgrade on the 0z upto around D10-12, after that there is still a euro trough but it gets pushed much further south and east and is weaker than it was a few runs ago but there is signs of a height rise between Greenland and Scandi which ties in with a growing signal in the GEFS extended of a 'Murr sausage'

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    26 minutes ago, igloo said:

    is this 4 inches falling or 4 inches lying as they are completely different not every flake lies obviously please  people dont get carried away with computer generated maps of snow cover many people will disiponted when they turn out wrong :cold:

    No its lying, although looking at snowkings graphic, they could have been lying in another sense!!!  They do look well overdone those charts.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No its lying, although looking at snowkings graphic, they could have been lying in another sense!!!  They do look well overdone those charts.

    Overdone?

    Certainly not a lot of moisture is associated with these slider lows typically somewhere gets a good dumping. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Overdone?

    Certainly not a lot of moisture is associated with these slider lows typically somewhere gets a good dumping. 

    Yep, it’s not your typical slider coming up against a block that sucks the moisture out of the system, somewhere is going to get a serious dumping!!! Still to be resolved where, Oxfordshire somewhere is my bet.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Overdone?

    Certainly not a lot of moisture is associated with these slider lows typically somewhere gets a good dumping. 

    I'm talking the ones on weather.us, they have been showing ridiculous snowfall totals over the last 7 or 8 runs.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    Is the gfs  output likely to verify compared to ukmo then Steve and if so what does that mean for Kent?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Yep, it’s not your typical slider coming up against a block that sucks the moisture out of the system, somewhere is going to get a serious dumping!!! Still to be resolved where, Oxfordshire somewhere is my bet.

    Bit further east in biggin Hill will do nicely

    mate

    18z should help with the correction.

    if it’s south again that’s a small trend

    if it’s north I give up till th 0z

    Edited by snowbob
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    OH NO on the 18z  at  6h the Greenland high bone has connected to the Scottish low bone which can only mean the sliding snow fest will track into the Bay of Biscay which will mean the jet fires up and the blo torch westerlys pick up and we all BBQ for xmas ..........Does it not?

    gfs-0-6.png?18

    Medic :crazy:

    Edited by winterof79
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    well  the event Friday has a few hot spots under snow for hours on end.  even if it were 1 flake an hour  people would still have a covering.   Now for the slider

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    A great read from Tamara's post earlier and deserves more credit with the regards to the weather upcoming the Christmas period and beyond and i do hope this is right:),are we going to see a memorable winter,well based on the background signals we are in a more favourable position,but we say this every year lol

    after reading that and i suspect the majority on here was very exited,i was:D

    jimmy.gif

     

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No its lying, although looking at snowkings graphic, they could have been lying in another sense!!!  They do look well overdone those charts.

    well i hope its on the conservative side of things and its even HIGHER more southern and flatter areas deserve something better after 3 years of dross after last weeks 5 inches lying for 5 days here a further 10 would cheer me up nicely it can lay here for weeks on end the best of luck

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Is it just me or is meteociel going incredibly slow?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    37 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    ECM eps are an absolute stonker and an upgrade on the 0z upto around D10-12, after that there is still a euro trough but it gets pushed much further south and east and is weaker than it was a few runs ago but there is signs of a height rise between Greenland and Scandi which ties in with a growing signal in the GEFS extended of a 'Murr sausage'

    Would be good to see the Euro trough extend further east if we were to get an easterly further down the line, as over the next few days there is a lot of WAA pumping up across Wern Russia and eastern Europe the source region for an easterly. It's all very good having an easterly, but you need the source to be cold. Strong southerly jet tracking into western Europe to the south of the UK next week may help extend the  Euro trough south and east though. Anyone notice nasty deepening low moving across France Monday on EC?

    ecm05_nhem_uv300_msl_2017120612_114.thumb.png.a71480ee1b196a59615c878fa4d8432c.pngecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017120612_114.thumb.jpg.c74e06be3bb07ab2bb4fe748487d7e65.jpg

    Anyway, that's too far off in the future, snow shower watching Friday and Saturday, slider low with snow threat watching on Sunday ... more than enough to concentrate on for now.

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Danny* said:

    Is it just me or is meteociel going incredibly slow?

    I thought it was my 4G :wallbash:

    netweather crashes meteociel!! Lol

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    Just now, Danny* said:

    Is it just me or is meteociel going incredibly slow?

    Yeh same here nothing loading

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    I normally find meteociel, earlier/quicker than netweather for GFS model runs

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    yes very slow.  a touch North maybe  at 78  

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...