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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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1 minute ago, in the vale said:

That's what I read from the charts but yr.no shows nothing. Odd.

Out of a 50 member suite, every single one gives you some sort of snow, the vast majority give you a moderate to heavy fall and some a severe fall.

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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nescafe....

The models are smelling the coffee them:D

eps trickling out now,and at 96 hrs,neg tilted trough,looks good to me:)

EDH1-96.GIF?06-0EDU1-96.GIF?06-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
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12 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Interestingly the NetWx-MR takes it way, wayyy South into the S Midlands, SE England and Central Southern England

Bank.thumb.png.e6ddc6bd9218b927740715a44e289aa9.png

I'll be banking that one, sorry for those up Norf

 

Anywhere from midland Ireland to South England  could get a dumping depending on the track.Can't wait for the pub run :cold:

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‘Slider lows’ usually bring a rise in temperatures,especially so from the North West.Polar lows are more trustworthy in bringing snow when embedded in a Northerly and usually only in January/February.This ‘slider low’ may contradict my comment,I hope so.The main point is the models are all in agreement of it’s genesis.

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Do you know how west yorkshire fairs?

About 4 inches, maybe nearer to 6 in parts but an increasing number miss altogether now to the south although still more runs that at least give a decent covering than don't.

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5 minutes ago, snowice said:

Anywhere from midland Ireland to South England  could get a dumping depending on the track.Can't wait for the pub run :cold:

Spot on. Anyone calling this now is brave. You cannot rule out central southern england or the south east,or further north, maybe the far southwest is a bit to far, but there’s definitely more twists in this yet! 

It is still Entirely plausible it misses completely 

Knife-edge sums it up quite nicely 

If you live somewhere around Oxford, I’d be feeling ever so slightly comfortable, but still be twitchy. 

Edited by karlos1983
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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The models are smelling the coffee them:D

eps trickling out now,and at 96 hrs,neg tilted trough,looks good to me:)

EDH1-96.GIF?06-0EDU1-96.GIF?06-0

Oh damn.. suddenly those South of the M4 are back in the game!

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Hot off the press..actually cold off the press is more appropriate:santa-emoji: I give you tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean which I must say, looks full of cold wintry weather!:D

ECMAVGEU12_24_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_48_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_72_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_96_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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29 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Interestingly the NetWx-MR takes it way, wayyy South into the S Midlands, SE England and Central Southern England

Bank.thumb.png.e6ddc6bd9218b927740715a44e289aa9.png

I'll be banking that one, sorry for those up Norf

 

This is turning into quite the saga...lol

north v south v midlands v -insert posters back yard location- haha. (Though I'm good with the netwx model ;) ) 

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18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Out of a 50 member suite, every single one gives you some sort of snow, the vast majority give you a moderate to heavy fall and some a severe fall.

Thanks Feb - I'll re-evaluate my reliance on yr.no when I haven't got the time to trawl MC.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

About 4 inches, maybe nearer to 6 in parts but an increasing number miss altogether now to the south although still more runs that at least give a decent covering than don't.

is this 4 inches falling or 4 inches lying as they are completely different not every flake lies obviously please  people dont get carried away with computer generated maps of snow cover many people will disiponted when they turn out wrong :cold:

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like the snow wars have started! :D

These sliders always end in  a fracture in relations between those in the high risk versus low risk area!

If the cold can hang on for a couple of weeks hopefully everyone will get to see some snow.

Peace!  :cold-emoji:

My hope is that entrenched cold will live long and prosper..it has a good chance I would say judging by the better cold runs we have seen today..:santa-emoji::D

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Eps 15 dayer is looking prety similar to what we have next week, if it turns out that way anyone living at a higher elevation midlands north could look like Buffalo!!!

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Right enough of this shameless ramping! :D

I’d advise people remain cautious and not start picking out hats for the snowman till the track of the slider and depth of cold gets within T48 hrs.

The same thing happened with the GFS super blizzard which met a tragic end.

I know it’s hard and it’s exciting because snow has been so rare in recent winters but   I have several counselors off on holiday at the moment and the NW helpline simply won’t cope if it goes pear shaped ! :cold-emoji:

And besides it can take hours to sweep up the toys :rofl:

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