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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:

Thank you!

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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs is currently the odd man out on Sundays frontal placement 

icon, ukmo and gem are pretty well in the same place which is prettybwell in line with 00z output 

Yes Blue- GEM joins UKMET having the low further north..but i do think there will be changes to come..:)

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Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell.

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Just now, AWD said:

12z Arpege suggests snow for the Pennines into Northern England and Scottish Borders;


Wet south of this.

Yes apart from GFS the 12z runs are very very wet for most south of manchester- from what i can make out..

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There is scope for slow moving convective snow showers/streamers too for next week.Be it off the Irish Sea or the North sea as the lows fill.The air will be colder than suggested by then on top of the slider low potential



Edited by winterof79
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If little height rises over Greenland will determine the path of the slider, there will be a long way to go till this is resolved!

Anyway the effects of higher SLP over Greenland are evident later on>


Cracking run but more support needed. 

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17 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gem further north . Uppers not great either . Still learning so happy to be corrected.

Deleted your charts to save on scrolling :) Just answering about the GEM and uppers. GEM tends to overdo the uppers, or so I've seen said by members more knowledgeable than me.

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So the event is just 4 days away, what have we got...

gfs-0-96.png?12   UW96-21.GIF?06-17   gem-0-96.png?12

Still variation between the outputs in terms of where that low will track, the GFS (left) is the further south whilst the GEM (right) is the furthest north. With the evolution being so delicate I suspect it maybe Saturday when we find out the track as it is the nature of the initial ridge shearing away which will determine the path the jetstream will take as it goes underneath weak heights to the north.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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