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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Sod’s law the slider low will go too SW and miss England altogether & skirt the extreme south coast instead hitting Northern France and the Channel Islands. I’d say that is highly unlikely not too surprised by southerly track by GFS 06z seen it time and again, would be good to see some consistency in the 12z.

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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    So let’s get this absolutely right. The set up is so marginal.....it’s marginal?  Ok got that :)

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    4 minutes ago, EML Network said:

    The same posters on here always trying to see what they want to and hopecast. 

    I have to chuckle when I see so much attention on one LP system, of course it's path is going to be modelled differently from run to run and I understand why so many people are interested, but the path is more or less clear..this will move pretty much straight across the UK from NE to SE cutting a thin sausage shaped wedge, Snow more likely from Wales in the West drawing a line to Lincoln in the East and anywhere North of that is in the firing line. 

     

    Those like me in the South really aren't going to get much out of this from Sunday onwards...those in the South and South West...your best chances of seeing snow is prior to Sunday, with Friday being your best opportunity and this has been consistently modelled for some time now. 

     

    prectypeuktopo.png

     

    If you like cold zonality and lots of rain then you're in for a treat next week, I really can't see how anyone see's it any differently ?

     

    prectypeuktopo.png

    As it usual from cold Zonality, N.Ireland, Scotland or NW England coastal areas are where you want to be. 

    If you want a UK wide snow event then you need an Easterly or a North Easterly and until that happens the majority of us on here are going to be in for a let down...personally I can't stand nothing worse than cold, strong winds and rain...and that's what most of us are going to see from this set up AFTER the weekend. 

     

    So enjoy what is to come from Thursday through until Monday IMO, but by all means feel fee to see what you want to and ignore what is actually being modelled

    Scrooge McDuck approves of this message.

    AEBF037A-FE5B-4EDF-BDE0-4A2A07AC79E1.jpeg

    In seriousness, ECM looks much more promising going forward than GFS?

    Edited by Johnp
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, EML Network said:

    The same posters on here always trying to see what they want to and hopecast. 

     

    I disagree, the last few GFS runs have corrected SW, that's indisputable fact, Nick F (a professional meteorologist) has just stressed uncertainty and that a more southerly track is possible and illustrated it with charts. Don't forget the 6z GFS is the newest data we have, ok - I admit, judging by the met office map, the UKV isn't yet seeing this but the trend is there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    So let’s get this absolutely right. The set up is so marginal.....it’s marginal?  Ok got that :)

     

    BFTP

    While the uppers are far from remarkable it can be perfectly good even for snow to settle to low levels, also bear in mind when rain falling evaporates this cools the air lowering the snow level. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    58 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Looks like a whole week characterised by 'marginality' - which, lo-and-behold, is an actual word...So why 'zonailty' isn't is a bit of a mystery: 

     

    h850t850eu.png

    If you keep posting T240 charts to support your take on it, for this winter ill be happy :)

    Edited by stewfox
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    While the uppers are far from remarkable it can be perfectly good even for snow to settle to low levels, also bear in mind when rain falling evaporates this cools the air lowering the snow level. 

    Tbh I think blast was being sarcastic Daniel. Tbh his point is valid:rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    19 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    Hmmm *interesting* update that the ECMWF and Glosea are both getting signals of pressure rising to our N N/E in the week commencing 18th , think the last two ecm runs have leaned to this 

    It would be useful to quote your source for this, ie Ian Fergusson, as per the Model Tweets thread. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    @EML Network If you watch the latest BBC Weather For The Week you will see that next week appears to be more "interesting" than you think, so keep watching those models!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    The majority of GEFS members showing heights building to the north and east at day 12-15

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    17 minutes ago, EML Network said:

    The same posters on here always trying to see what they want to and hopecast. 

    I have to chuckle when I see so much attention on one LP system, of course it's path is going to be modelled differently from run to run and I understand why so many people are interested, but the path is more or less clear..this will move pretty much straight across the UK from NE to SE cutting a thin sausage shaped wedge, Snow more likely from Wales in the West drawing a line to Lincoln in the East and anywhere North of that is in the firing line. 

     

    Those like me in the South really aren't going to get much out of this from Sunday onwards...those in the South and South West...your best chances of seeing snow is prior to Sunday, with Friday being your best opportunity and this has been consistently modelled for some time now. 

     

    prectypeuktopo.png

     

    If you like cold zonality and lots of rain then you're in for a treat next week, I really can't see how anyone see's it any differently ?

     

    prectypeuktopo.png

    As it usual from cold Zonality, N.Ireland, Scotland or NW England coastal areas are where you want to be. 

    If you want a UK wide snow event then you need an Easterly or a North Easterly and until that happens the majority of us on here are going to be in for a let down...personally I can't stand nothing worse than cold, strong winds and rain...and that's what most of us are going to see from this set up AFTER the weekend. 

     

    So enjoy what is to come from Thursday through until Monday IMO, but by all means feel fee to see what you want to and ignore what is actually being modelled

    Such certainty!

    The met office would give their eye teeth for it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    28F82FA7-2253-4964-81B4-072C5DE2965E.thumb.gif.e85eb8523379618701693315efc11016.gif

    its been a while since we’ve seen that much scatter towards the end of the run. Certainly more support for the warmer members than 12 hours ago when I posted yesterday’s 12z graph. One to watch.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Tbh I think blast was being sarcastic Daniel. Tbh his point is valid:rofl:

    I see, well I didn’t!

     I don’t see anything overly marginal on GFS 06z I must be honest I haven’t looked at the T850 temps but sure they will suffice. Ahead of the slider we see a waft of the continent this will ensure dew points are all good. The slider low fills out making it very conducive for evaporative cooling, it’s a near perfect track for Southern England. 

    2DC17A8B-DDC0-46A1-AFEE-E97BCB416B26.thumb.jpeg.bd37f287ba84559bcda67285f966b30b.jpegE00FFB97-EA5C-49D3-AD8A-28C7219F76B7.thumb.jpeg.9806aea9799d9c6b3be87e1c92b7cd6d.jpeg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    11 minutes ago, stewfox said:

    If you keep posting T240 charts to support your take on it, for this winter ill be happy :)

    In fairness Stew, I could've posted almost any chart that has any 'cold' on it; it just so happens that that was the one I was viewing, at the time...?:santa-emoji:

    PS: Friday and Saturday are of course the exception.:D

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    All this talk about the track being nailed yesterday / today. Not a hope, was never a hope and what's more, it isn't over yet.

    Zero surprise whatsoever to see the SW shift, es expected, it always does, Steve explains the reasoning earlier on very well. Be aware though, as improbable as this sounds, this could actually end up missing the UK altogether. I give that a hefty 30% chance which may seem crazy at this seemingly late stage. Should it, take the goods news, we are in all nice inside the cold air and locked in for a while.

    The models are starting to throw a few little hints about a spell of SW-NE jet activity in FI. Not to be ruled and quite plausible, one to watch and even if so I expect it to be transitory. That said, how about this instead... !! :shok:GFSP18EU06_384_1.thumb.png.428010e3af02f1d9edd9790fe4eead54.png

    Edited by s4lancia
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Afternoon all :)

    Whatever happens in the near future - I'm starting to look at beyond the beyond and as others have noticed and noted, the increasing trend for height rises to the NE. The 06Z OP doesn't really get there but plenty of the members in the ENS do.

    The truth is the route to very cold often starts from very mild and the transition from an Azores HP dominated airflow from the SW to a Scandinavian HP dominated flow from the east or south east can mean a period of mild or very mild conditions before the colder continental air sets up and moves in.

    Some of the most notable cold spells have started with the Azores HP moving NE across the British Isles to Scandinavia but they are as rare as hen's teeth and a more likely evolution is or are the two HP system squeezing out any residual trough over the British Isles and creating a single large HP cell which migrates NE and opens the door to the cold ESE flow.

    We are seeing both the Azores HP re-orient towards western Europe (a positive tilt) and heights building to the far NE but it may take a few days for anything to come into the reliable range and possibly not even until the New Year.

    Even if and when that happens, while it will guarantee cold, it won't guarantee snow and we will need to see lower pressure to the SW and the classic battle ground scenarios from which large snowfalls can occur.

    I now expect it to go mild in the week before Christmas and probably through Christmas with a return to colder weather around the New Year.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

    One thing i'm pretty sure of, by the time we get to Sunday at least one model will have modelled the correct track at least once in the last 7 days, trouble is they won't know they were right till after its gone through, a nowcast for me this one, though we may be able to get it down to a track of a couple of hundred miles wide. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Back to the here & now & before the 12s set off on their hopecasting voyage - here is the snowfall accum chart for T48 Euro 4-

    A pretty impressive coverage for the UK in particular the favoured spots of the NW midlands - but Ireland ! wheres our Irish contingent - snow all the way down to dublin-

    Maybe even a few flurries in London again !

    IMG_2189.thumb.PNG.cc389baa5fe2d201b1df32a6650452bb.PNG

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Euro 4 coming into range now, just as Storm Caroline leaves the country and the air turns colder behind and turns N/NW. Here is the EURO 4. 

    30.thumb.gif.b54b0f56b9103382445058cc7907aad9.gif36.thumb.gif.212cce17f6b2c279cf6d22cf2169e131.gif 

    42.thumb.gif.59780be35671ba28f216b5da153e917d.gif 48.thumb.gif.53b97108c80e00a852f06f5af0eadf1d.gif

    Edit. Just seen Mr Murr has posted the Accumulation charts! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Back to the here & now & before the 12s set off on their hopecasting voyage - here is the snowfall accum chart for T48 Euro 4-

    A pretty impressive coverage for the UK in particular the favoured spots of the NW midlands - but Ireland ! wheres our Irish contingent - snow all the way down to dublin-

    Maybe even a few flurries in London again !

    IMG_2189.thumb.PNG.cc389baa5fe2d201b1df32a6650452bb.PNG

    Them charts don't make sense, the METO have issued warnings for 2-5cm widely across NW England, Wales etc but the above doesn't reflect.

     

    I'll just watch the radar when it comes I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Them charts don't make sense, the METO have issued warnings for 2-5cm widely across NW England, Wales etc but the above doesn't reflect.

     

    I'll just watch the radar when it comes I guess.

    I'm sure the Met Office don't base there forecast/warnings off just the Euro 4 alone. Remember a number of times Ian Fergusson said the Euro 4 was modified/blended when in situations like this before.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    50 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate.

    The only post that sticks out a mile as pointless is the one im quoting...

    Oh Steve! You are a one... But back to the debate about the slider low, from memory is Wednesday not much too far out to judge the track with any sort of certainty? Was it the March 2013 snowfall that ended up causing record falls in the channel isles after being forecast to hit the mainland only days before? Not saying it will happen again but worth noting in that at this stage there is no point getting worried or putting the champagne on ice as the case may be. 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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