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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The thing about a sw shift is it isn’t such a bad thing for the Scottish contingent as it keeps them in deeper cold longer with snowfall likely anyway 

    looking beyond the first slider I would say the recent trend is for the second one to correct a long way north and its possible that a movement south in the overall pattern early on could bear more fruit later on aswell 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    gfs-0-102.png?6 gfs-0-108.png?6

    If you're new to the slider craziness, well this is how it tends to go with sizeable shifts one way then the other which may continue for another 2 or even 3 days yet.
    Sun-Mon is proving a forecasting nightmare, but you could say, 'nicer problems to have' :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    A further correction south on the 06z, this is mad, will miss us completely by 12z at this rate!:crazy::D

    gfs-0-102.png

    gfs-1-102.png

    gfs-2-108.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    yes has a few have said a huge correction south west on this run.  going from this run The midlands is the Northerly edge.  Of course this run is as likely to veryfy as the last run.  Still plenty of time for  it to adjust either way.  My opinion is  it well track further North   either way interesting viewing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    If this is what it’s done this far out it’s more than likely going to miss the whole of the British Isles at this rate! I hope I’m wrong but we’ve been here before..

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Not to be taken serious   but the shift here is clear for all to see

    120-780UK.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    gfs-0-132.png gfs-0-126.png?6

    Liking the removal of the ridge here as with a cold trough in such a position stretching from SE to NE of the UK, shortwaves cutting through are more friend than foe... :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A potentially very mucky Sunday. Very marginal?

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    gfs-0-102.png?6 gfs-0-108.png?6

    If you're new to the slider craziness, well this is how it tends to go with sizeable shifts one way then the other which may continue for another 2 or even 3 days yet.
    Sun-Mon is proving a forecasting nightmare, but you could say, 'nicer problems to have' :laugh:

    Then it gets to the day and it's still radar watch.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Just to add that the reasons for the southward correction come quite early in the run over the Atlantic 

    Is this newer data or just a gfs op run doing what Gfs op runs sometimes do

    need to wait for the twelves to find out although some of the lesser models do have a five day 06z run !

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    14 hours ago, markw2680 said:

    Why are people so fascinated about Sunday and after? What about the cold few days before hand? Just enjoy them and then see where we stand come Saturday, after all it’s only Tuesday so things will change probably quite a lot before the BIG day!! Relax a tad

    I posted this a few days ago along with other people saying it will correct sw, there’s still going to be more changes as it is still only Wednesday so let’s enjoy Caroline and the cold after first ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    I'm liking the 6z moving the snow boundary south . Means I'm gonna get some snow in Hertfordshire. Like people have said it will probably miss all together . 

    IMG_0725.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    13 hours ago, abbie123 said:

    I don't think this a done deal yet with rain sleet and snow Sunday in to Monday history tells me the  whole lot could be pushed south and west we'll see how in all pans out next  couple days .   Before then we a Wintery weekend to come .

    THE CHANCE OF SNOW IS INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Just to add that the reasons for the southward correction come quite early in the run over the Atlantic 

    Is this newer data or just a gfs op run doing what Gfs op runs sometimes do

    need to wait for the twelves to find out although some of the lesser models do have a five day 06z run !

     

    Big shift south on the ICON 06z, not as far south as GFS but close. ICON tends to follow the ECM idea by the way. Here are the two PPN charts, 00z and 06z for comparison.

    icon-0-120.png

    icon-2-120.png

    icon-2-126.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Just to add that the reasons for the southward correction come quite early in the run over the Atlantic 

    Is this newer data or just a gfs op run doing what Gfs op runs sometimes do

    need to wait for the twelves to find out although some of the lesser models do have a five day 06z run !

     

    Having just trawled through the individual EPS members, a not insignificant 15 out of 51 members have a track similar to that of the 6z GFS as of 0z - the median position though remains through Wales and The Midlands, with the 'median envelope' (if that is a thing) roughly between the M4 and the M62 - if you take it from the basis of the EPS, the Det and Control were too far north with the system this morning.

    With that in mind, the 6z GFS still represents one of the minority tracks, but one not without support. The clever money is still currently a little further north of this though...for now

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, radiohead said:

    Anyone spot the ICON for Monday morning?

    iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png?06-11 

    I had spotted it’s a bit forther sw which I guess is better than being ne !

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    Anyone spot the ICON for Monday morning?

    iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png?06-11 

    WOW!!!:shok::yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

    THE CHANCE OF SNOW IS INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH 

    Alright, no need to scream :laugh:

     

    gfsnh-0-174.png?6 gfsnh-0-180.png

    At this range the details are of little concern but it is of note how the Pacific ridge is not as sharp on this run (left chart) which increases the risk of the Canadian trough breaking loose. On the other hand, the seed for the deep trough is shallower and more stretched out which makes me wonder if that will evolve into such a 'pushy' system.

    Given the 00z ECM this is just speculation with respect to this particular run (for the fun of it, if I'm honest!).

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    We are now within the timeframe (T120) where the ops verify better than the ens mean on heights. 

    But the eps running at 14km are a very good tool compared to a few years ago 

    i am intrigued by the second feature which is now consistently modelled to approach on a more west to east basis rather than sliding or diving 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
    1 minute ago, sausage said:

    so were looking at such amazing wintry synoptics that look as though once again they will provide us with nothing much in the way of snow again. what do we have to do in this country to get allround snow!!

    ???? do you have a chart for that

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    5 minutes ago, sausage said:

    so were looking at such amazing wintry synoptics that look as though once again they will provide us with nothing much in the way of snow again. what do we have to do in this country to get allround snow!!

    Don't be a silly sausage.

    It's still too soon to say where and how much snow there will be.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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