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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO extended looks to have another deep-ish low tracking north of Scotland giving us strong winds and rain - snow for some initially?

    144

    ukm2.2017121200_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.a66e30ae539234e6f943a8c6f863321c.png

    168

    ukm2.2017121300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.746cf45266f522bf93351c50b0e10eed.png

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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    1 hour ago, shaky said:

    Theres the ever slight shift southwards of the higher accumulations!!wouldnt it be funny if it missed wales and the south west got it instead lol??

    It would be a bleeding miracle.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Ext eps this morning are somewhat disappointing, totally different at the end of the run, showing a return to mild south westerly winds - expect a sharp rise at the end of the London graph.

    How far ahead is that Feb, by ext do you mean past 15 days? The De Bilt shows a large spread developing from around the 20th. But theres still quite a few colder solutions.  I really wouldn't worry about it , at that range they can easily flip between runs.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Bit of a downgrade overnight for Sunday's potential snow event for some but an upgrade for others with Wales and east into Herefordshire and the west Midlands doing much better

    12z Yesterday                                                00z today

    126-780UK.thumb.GIF.5e51f3d32091b427fcc35be0e06d975c.GIF114-780UK.thumb.GIF.9cdf72b1c8d023769b43c06bf165cc4b.GIF

     

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    How far ahead is that Feb, by ext do you mean past 15 days? The De Bilt shows a large spread developing from around the 20th. But theres still quite a few colder solutions.  I really wouldn't worry about it , at that range they can easily flip between runs.

     

     

    At the end - 13-15, the Eastern US trough pushes into th Atlantic and the azores high moves into town and ends the run with a +ve anomaly over Spain into France and warm uppers over UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Bit of a downgrade overnight for Sunday's potential snow event for some but an upgrade for others with Wales and east into England doing much better

    12z Yesterday                                                00z today

    126-780UK.thumb.GIF.5e51f3d32091b427fcc35be0e06d975c.GIF114-780UK.thumb.GIF.9cdf72b1c8d023769b43c06bf165cc4b.GIF

     

    It shows a much lengthier event than just Sunday.

    138-780UK_wsr0.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    For those wanting to talk snow potential / snow amounts for their part of the country without any context around the model output, please head to the regional threads. 

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    This thread is for model discussion only, too many people are posting whatever they fancy in here just because it is busy. Those continually doing this need to stop or you risk being among the first in the  list of people to be stopped from posting in here this winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    At the end - 13-15, the Eastern US trough pushes into th Atlantic and the azores high moves into town and ends the run with a +ve anomaly over Spain into France and warm uppers over UK.

    Day 13 is an awfully long way out, I wouldn't don't take one set of extended ensembles as a fait accompli.

    If its still there in a few runs then that would be disappointing but I've seen the ensembles make marked shifts between runs.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Day 13 is an awfully long way out, I wouldn't don't take one set of extended ensembles as a fait accompli.

    If its still there in a few runs then that would be disappointing but I've seen the ensembles make marked shifts between runs.

     

    Yes - this run!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Day 13 is an awfully long way out, I wouldn't don't take one set of extended ensembles as a fait accompli.

    If its still there in a few runs then that would be disappointing but I've seen the ensembles make marked shifts between runs.

     

    Indeed, last night's set was different and I would wager we will see something different on tonight's set.  Time will tell as ever!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, mulzy said:

    Indeed, last night's set was different and I would wager we will see something different on tonight's set.  Time will tell as ever!

    Strange as the day 10 mean looks excellent- UK under the influence of cold scandy trough- as it generally will be for the next week to 10 days (after tomorrow).

    Anyway- we got a week or so of exciting weather to look forward to- initially tomorrow night across the NW Britain and then a few bitterly cold days and a potentially significant snow event sunday.

    Foe me its come at the best time of the year too- :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    38 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Ext eps this morning are somewhat disappointing, totally different at the end of the run, showing a return to mild south westerly winds - expect a sharp rise at the end of the London graph.

    Still has heights to our north east and neg anomoly centred around northern Italy at day 13 though feb, cant read too much into them but poss battle ground scenario? 

    Edited by Nicholas B
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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    39 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Ext eps this morning are somewhat disappointing, totally different at the end of the run, showing a return to mild south westerly winds - expect a sharp rise at the end of the London graph.

    It was only last night that we were being informed of exactly the opposite ! A few hours is a long time in weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Could someone give me a link to where the ECMWF chart which normally sits on the left of the link below is available please?

    many thanks

    Along with the NOAA link below it both suggest some degree of meridional flow with quite low contour heights over the UK for the 6-10 day period.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    40 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Bit of a downgrade overnight for Sunday's potential snow event for some but an upgrade for others with Wales and east into Herefordshire and the west Midlands doing much better

    12z Yesterday                                                00z today

    126-780UK.thumb.GIF.5e51f3d32091b427fcc35be0e06d975c.GIF114-780UK.thumb.GIF.9cdf72b1c8d023769b43c06bf165cc4b.GIF

     

    It will be interesting as to where the 06z has the precip falling, I'm thinking it may move slightly north again - no more than a hunch. Either way, I think the weekend is going to be very busy on here, as with the next few days no doubt.  Over 100 online at 0900 tells you something is a foot, I'm sure by Sun this will multiply a few times!!  

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    On 05/12/2017 at 01:07, BlackburnChris said:

    Polar lows will form in the here and now in a polar flow...not the result of a gfs model run

    Exactly what I ment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    looks like corrections south west appearing on the 06z GFS :shok:

    gfsnh-0-84.thumb.png.a0139de843f903dbc3ae77a5b66481bd.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    looks like corrections south west appearing on the 06z GFS :shok:

    gfsnh-0-84.thumb.png.a0139de843f903dbc3ae77a5b66481bd.png

    Yes Big shift!!   

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Better heights getting north late Saturday on this run. Further correction south likely here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.

    Looks like the low is going to head further to the southwest and dive towards Biscay

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    Scottish Coldie's worst nightmare happening on the 06z, another shift SW... :nonono:

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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