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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

From 96

 

 

To-120

Ecm has some serious mixing of milder air.....

As lp waves in.

Certainly not a synoptic at this point if snow is what you are looking for!!!!

With that much of mild sector you would have to envisage' much more elevation/and much further north!!!

 

ECU0-96.gif

ECU0-120.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
11 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

i think a major part of the problem is, so many people throwing in the word "zonal" when they dont actually know what it means....

Quite right B-dog!

BDE09EDE-805C-45E9-9217-FDEEAC896FF2.thumb.png.eec44eecd3eb100119e142f19826a990.png

When greenland be purple, then you’ll feel like a errrr ... turtle.... sorry ryhmes were never my thing! But what we see now is not zonal! 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, northwestsnow said:

well its only my two peneth but i think higher parts like the pennines will get clobered on that EC120-

Yep decent for midlands north. As always with these type of events 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep decent for midlands north. As always with these type of events 

Id go a fare few miles further north than 'midlands'....

Based on this run...

Transitional-at best (midlands)

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the low scoots east T132 to be off the dutch coast - too much easterly push to allow it to disrupt se enough

Disrupt enough for what Blue?  144 on ECM looks pretty good to me?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Disrupt enough for what Blue?  144 on ECM looks pretty good to me?

For it to elongate enough and dig south further west, avoiding wetness and maintaining whiteness!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

I very rarely post on here and keep myself to myself....I live in the SE and really don’t expect much from this cold spell, and that is exactly how it will feel over the next week or so compared to recent years but looking at all the signals i am 90% sure that most will see a decent amount of snow over winter. The models are firming up slowly and i do believe those north of the midlands will do well out of this one. However going into the end of December and into Jan look north east.....

Edited by Frostbite1980
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

For it to elongate enough and dig south further west, avoiding wetness and maintaining whiteness!

and keeping as much of the uk away as possible from atlantic sourced air  

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes nick we are going to need some amplification 168 onwards or its going to get very wet!!

At least for some it will soon be getting very white..one step at a time:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes nick we are going to need some amplification 168 onwards or its going to get very wet!!

And I can guarantee our region definitely will not miss out on any wetness..:wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Frosty. said:

At least for some it will soon be getting very white..one step at a time:santa-emoji:

Yes mate i'm trying to factor in as much of the UK as possible, for sure higher parts in the north will get plenty of snow over the coming week- :)

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep decent for midlands north. As always with these type of events 

A few members keep saying midlands north wrt to snow. Gfs and ECM your looking at leeds north not the midlands.  

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Back into a pm-flow..

Ecm 12z is bog standard winter fare..

Away from evlevation to the north!..

And wintry shower mix western/eastern most!!

More runs to decipher!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Sorry guys but it looks a damp squid for 90% percent of the country from Sunday onwards not sure why all the excitement the uppers are way to high cold Rain?

Yes longer term perhaps i tend to agree with you, the wheels appear to be coming off- shorter term however there is hopefully a good 2 days of snow showers and ice for those in NW Britain :)

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