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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    That's a sizeable shift north by 06z GFS for Sunday's slider low compared to the 00z, pulled into line with EC now and may stay that way ...

    GFSOPEU00_132_2.thumb.png.763c4e2e1549400c7396a43743243628.png00zGFSOPEU06_126_2.thumb.png.71ab643e598107b4fb60fbb0fdd5f022.png06z

    Perhaps a little preceding snow before turning to rain for most away from Scotland and far N of England

    120_20.thumb.gif.bd928d9dd89b562558be9ad360468a92.gif126_20.thumb.gif.d03a02e59a72e325b60cb67b9c870f54.gif

    Edited by Nick F
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    You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

    Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

    Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    3 minutes ago, meh said:

    How's the 'slider's always correct westward while the EC adjusts to the GFS' hypothesis holding up?

    In every scenario this isn't always going to be the case, though often this happens more frequently than not. Anyway still a good 120h out yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Looks like the gfs06z is moving into line with the ecm. And that’s why in my book the ecm is top dog in the verification stats. Expect more of a shift from the gfs12z towards the euros. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, meh said:

    How's the 'slider's always correct westward while the EC adjusts to the GFS' hypothesis holding up?

    Well done you..... but nothing’s verified yet smarty pants :p

    2F36E724-CBCF-40F0-A9FB-0508E264B25F.gif.1ce1895dd9432f7b6730b588badc6548.gif

    guess we will find out next week eh.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    So for the GFS we have gone from yesterday it missing us to the south completely, to now going through the borders, at this rate, the Faroe Isles might just catch it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
    19 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

    1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

    2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

    3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

    4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

    So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

    Sober and realistic!  Thanks for adding balance rather than blind hopecasting 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

    Imvho, I feel that none of the main 3 have got the track of this slider correct. All we can say right now is it has around a 2-300 mile zone to slide through. 

    Also my feeling is that although the gfs has moved significantly towards the ECM, both will correct south and west nearer the time. 

    This will go down to t12-t24 before it's nailed and even then it will be more about now casting and radar watching. 

    Once we get into the range of the higher resolution models around 48-72 hours we can begin to get some more detailed idea as to who gets snow and who just gets wet! 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Dave - you should post more often mate. We’ve needed a bit of balance for ages !

    the quick re amplification by day ten tells us that the flatter look to the ens later week 2 may not verify. 

    anyway, this is still not nailed down. The envelope may be closing on the sw of the uk but that was always the area which was the least likely recipient of snowfall from this scenario anyway 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Quote from Ian Fergusson  granted it was at Midnight and from the 12z  but the statement holds very true  some may like to take head of what it says.

    Fair spread by 00z Mon in latest (12z) ECMWF postage stamps, both positionally & developmentally. Much, much too early to call re outcome nationally let alone regionally.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    So what'll it be today? Are we definitively on the slide? Or are we still firmly stuck on the roundabout?

    Anywho, we're off to a cracking start!:yahoo:

    h850t850eu.png

    Interestingly beeb has 6C for London on Friday it’s so off it’s laughable.. As TEITS puts it (good to see you back) maximums between 2-3C many parts of Scotland will hover around freezing at most. 

    90805B9B-9849-4550-A921-64096024D786.thumb.jpeg.aee369fdabefd8c51a3d7e7138e092c4.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Well I for one am not being dictated to as to when I want to ramp.:D:Dcold air still pushing down by next Tuesday with harsh frosts from Friday pm.Winter weather in winter and I am mis leading nobody

    I have suffered enough the past few winters.

    Somewhere will get pasted over the weekend and good on ya if you do.

     

    gfs-2-138.png

    gfs-2-120.png

    gfs-0-156.png

    gfs-1-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    So the putative slider-low has had its trajectory adjusted a bit north and east? So what? There are still 5 or 6 days in which can go up and down the country like a yo-yo...:unknw:

    Anyway back the GFS. Which, BTW, does not control the weather! :acute::laugh:

    We do seem to still be in the realms of an amplified Atlantic ridge (of sorts). But, for how long?

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Interestingly beeb has 6C for London on Friday it’s so off it’s laughable.. As TEITS puts it (good to see you back) maximums between 2-3C many parts of Scotland will hover around freezing at most. 

    90805B9B-9849-4550-A921-64096024D786.thumb.jpeg.aee369fdabefd8c51a3d7e7138e092c4.jpeg

    Remember, there can be up to 2c-3c difference to air temperatures in large cities so it could possibly reach 5c-6c in London on Friday!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

     maximums between 2-3C many parts of Scotland will hover around freezing at most. 

    90805B9B-9849-4550-A921-64096024D786.thumb.jpeg.aee369fdabefd8c51a3d7e7138e092c4.jpeg

    6c in Shetland in a strong arctic NNW'ly..doesn't look right!:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Bring on the more grounded objective posts please (welcome back TEITS, great post) but a few snidey little comments starting to creep in from others, showing both a lack of knowledge and maturity on their parts. Hopefully removed by the time I post this. If that is your level of constructive comment? Take it elsewhere please...

    As per my musings yesterday, this is far from settled and won't be any time soon. 06z going down a different route courtesy of a different Eastern Atlantic jet profile and phases the not-this-time slider low to the Scandi one (compared to the 00z which drove it south). Overall, looks absolutely fine to me though, I will happliy take it all day long.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Remember, there can be up to 2c-3c difference to air temperatures in large cities so it could possibly reach 5c-6c in London on Friday!

    I’d say 4C absolute maximum the flow is very cold make no mistake not wishy washy nonsense we have experienced in recent winters, in the far north an ice day very much on the table.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    6c in Shetland in a strong arctic NNW'ly..doesn't look right!:D

    yes I think they are being a bit generous with that 6c in Shetland - crikey more like -6

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    6c in Shetland in a strong arctic NNW'ly..doesn't look right!:D

    ECM from this morning has it between 3-6. So seems the max is used on that forecast, as opposed to the min or something in the middle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    39 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

    1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

    2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

    3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

    4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

    So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

    I've really missed you TEITS. As a learner and still a learner I always looked forward to your posts as they seemed to me to be the most reliable and balanced.  I've been really put off by all this recent bickering ansdwas thinking of taking a break from this site for a few days until things calmed down - that is unless you are going to be posting on here! Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    ECM from this morning has it between 3-6. So seems the max is used on that forecast, as opposed to the min or something in the middle.

    Normally in an arctic flow the far north will be colder than the far south, I mean Shetland is just a bit cooler than the channel islands on friday, what a joke.:laugh:

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
    34 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

    1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

    2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

    3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

    4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

    So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

    Good post TEITS...

    I think those of us who have been on this forum for many years tend to take a back seat and enjoy reading the trials and tribulations of what the winter charts churn out on here.

    The more balanced and experienced of us could clearly see that the evidence has always been for a dry but potent cold blast for a few days with the usual places seeimg snowfall from such set ups.

    I dont post on here so much now as I feel ive seen it all before and its more fun to just read peoples thoughts.

    All the evidence does suggest a.return to a.more mobile pattern in the last 1/3 of Dec....although thats far from certain as as METO suggests a slow process.

     

    I think the general concensuss is that January hangs in the balance with all eyes looking to see if we can pull off a SSW event at the turn of the year(ish).

    Overal though a far more interestimg start to winter than weve had for a long long time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I’d say 4C absolute maximum the flow is very cold make no mistake not wishy washy nonsense we have experienced in recent winters, in the far north an ice day very much on the table.

    Depends which model is right on the intial potency of that N/NW flow, if the GFS is right I would say that 4C would be the absolute maximum for the likes of central London and the South coast, probably 1-3C elsewhere, with the other models, probably add a couple of degrees onto that but the general forecasts do suggest snow to low levels in those showers. In fairness we can't really complain about the northerly, this is going to be a pretty potent one considering.

    78-7UK.GIF?05-6

    The -10C isotherm actually manages to get into Northern France Friday night so this is pretty good for an arctic maritime airmass.

    As for precipitation, the NW flow should drive showers well inland along the usual paths (Cheshire gap plus anyone in line with the specific wind direct would be favoured), plus I would be too surprised to see areas close to the north sea get at least a dusting and showers could move in from time to time even if the wind direction isn't overly favourable (Showery troughs, watch for the kinks in the flow).

    It is just the weekend we need to be wary for, we absolutely need some higher heights to deflect the low south east instead of it ploughing through the UK with wind and mostly rain for the UK. Tight margins, we have plenty of examples of this going the right and wrong way so at the moment it is a tough one to call. But being realistic, I would prefer to see those light shades of blue appearing on the ECM rather than GFS.....

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Ridging in Atlantic on 15th (day 10 ecm) for me looks right, GFS 6z more amplified around then compared to 00z so again looks right.  The weekend coming will see very cold air around so chances are there.......and to claim heavy snow or it will be dry is still too early.  Let’s enjoy ......’at least it won’t be mild’

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Normally in an arctic flow the far north will be colder than the far south, I mean Shetland is just a bit cooler than the channel islands on friday, what a joke.:laugh:

    I think it is probably related to the starting temperature prior to the shot and the amount of time it takes for those uppers to do its work at the ground level. 

     

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
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    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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