Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[winterof79]

26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sure I've read on here EC has the best verification  stats? not sure at which range mind, GFS not rated by many on here

GFS being fairly steadfast in its out look for this Friday since Last Friday

[Frosty.]

• It's really pathetic in here again, too much worry about breakdowns will again take the shine off the arctic blast when it arrives..Very sad but all too predictable..nothing changes. Just enjoy it..I have visions of angry frustrated coldies  glued to this thread when it's snowing and freezing cold.
• Want something to moan about, think back to last year or worse still, Dec 2015..things are much much better than that!

Edited December 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[iamgazza]

Agree we do need the ECM on board, BUT it's not game over until we've got some sort of agreement. Yes it has the best verification stats, but last time I checked it wasn't 100%. Very exciting times and I await 6z with interest. What a time to be alive.

[swfc]

For what its worth imo getting hung up on "sliders" that have yet to even form at that time scale is pretty pointless. Altho it is modeled anyone trying to call a rain or snow event at that range  and getting it correct needs to send me the euro numbers! !!.A s frosty said its going to turn cold with snow showers to exposed coastal areas and esp Scotland. After that ????

[steveinsussex]

25 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Surely, much too marginal (cold rain/sleet) for us in the South?

Yes, Frosty is a cold ramper. It’s nothing notable south of the midlands, it will be cold yes, but pretty much it for the next few days. 

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, iamgazza said:

 What a time to be alive.

Blimey - where were you seven years ago ??

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Yes, Frosty is a cold ramper

Thats the kind of comment I expected from you, no respect for other posters who contribute a lot to this thread, even in summer when it's so quiet. As I do.

Edited December 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Thats the kind of comment I expected from you, no respect for other posters who contribute a lot to this thread, even in summer when it's so quiet.

you're great in summer Frosty! enjoy your posts all year though

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Thats the kind of comment I expected from you, no respect for other posters who contribute a lot to this thread, even in summer when it's so quiet. As I do.

Yes Frosty stop ramping up cold when it's quite clearly not on agenda 

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Its hard enough trying to learn on here and what a slider is now there’s handbags at dawn , does appear some like the chase of cold charts and not actually what’s coming in the ‘reliable’

It's also quite ridiculous the way certain posters get the hopes up of many of the less knowledgable and the newcomers with ramps and emojis! Looking at the current models, the vast majority of those on here are not in for much joy in the way of a decent snowfall. And before I'm accused of that, I don't live in south England, I'm in Ireland. I'm a coldie, love a heavy snowfall, and a harsh frost, but the often juvenile posts here ramping the marginal outputs is very off-putting.

 

Anyway, back to the 6z, we really could do with a few tweaks in the 72-96-120 range in regards to pressure above us to see if we can drag a bit more life out of the upcoming 3 day freeze. Fingers crossed. Keep an eye out on the pressure pool about the pole that's been modelled constantly. If we could increase that slightly, or if we can get better WAA up the side of Greenland in the shorter term, we could be on the cusp of better longevity (insert suitable joy/santa emoji as appropriate!)

[TEITS]

Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

[Chris101]

Did we not just go through the second half of last week going through model turmoil because the ECM really wasnt playing ball at reloading the ridge to Greenland? I even told the wife at the end of last week that the Northerly we had was probably the last when GFS edged towards ECM, only for it to all to suddenly turn around in 24 hours and the Northerly was back on and locked in.

[Methuselah]

So what'll it be today? Are we definitively on the slide? Or are we still firmly stuck on the roundabout?

Anywho, we're off to a cracking start!

Edited December 5, 2017 by Ed Stone

[Southender]

3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

Finally a bit of balance. Cold/Mild rampers please take note. On the money this post, well done TEITS, good to have you back in the madhouse.

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

Yep nice succinct post from TEITS (welcome back)...that about sums it up currently. I too tend to agree of the flattening of the pattern towards the second half of December.

[shaky]

Gfs slowly catching up with ecm here!!deeper low to the northwest at 102 hours!!gfs has been all over the shop man!!

[Timmytour]

7 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

Great to hear from you again Teits.  Not what I wanted to hear but your opinion is much respected by me and I suggest many others on here.  That's not to say that I hope you are right! 

[karlos1983]

GFS definitely moving towards the euro’s

[bluearmy]

That’s a bit grim - we usually get baby steps from gfs to ecm. This run doesnt leave much room for ecm to take muchvif a step back!

[Bristawl Si]

10 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

Post of the week!

Reality check from an NW stalwart. Cutting through 'the noise' on here.

[shaky]

Ecm looks to be on the money here!!if it was to be correct then what an epic fail for gfs at just around 120 hours!!ecm has got slated quite a bit recently aswell!!

[Scandinavian High.]

If you like snow there a good chance you will see some at weekend even in south there’s  good chance. As for next week there chance of more  persistent snow somewhere in the uk where no knows yet gfs is more consistent  ukmo looks good  to me . The ecm  what way will it go I think lows will run to south west of uk and chance rain sleet and snow in south and south west and we stay on cold side ..

[Tracy Flick]

How's the 'slider's always correct westward while the EC adjusts to the GFS' hypothesis holding up?

[Iceaxecrampon]

14 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Having followed all the output and read all the posts these past few weeks I thought I would make my first post of the winter. A few points I wish to raise.

1. Current output does not suggest a major cold spell.

2. The NW,ly this Fri/Sat will bring snow showers to the favoured locations and may even spread SW through the cheshire gap towards even London. However many locations will remain dry and sunny with max temps of 2/3C. The snow showers will not be as extensive as some have suggested.

3. Beyond NW,ly the jet stream does appear to be taking a NW-SE track so slider low pressure systems bringing a risk of snow is possible. Remember though your location dictates whether a model run is good or bad based on the track of the low.

4. The risk of cold and snowfall from this pattern looks likely to extend into mid Dec. However I fear beyond this a return to a milder weather, flatter jet stream, lower heights to our NW/N is likely towards xmas. Love to be wrong.

So a summary is this is much better than last year but certainly no repeat of 2010!

Hmmm...

Try telling Glouctershire that on Friday?

Time will tell in due course.

[Nick F]

That's a sizeable shift north by 06z GFS for Sunday's slider low compared to the 00z, pulled into line with EC now and may stay that way ...

00z06z

Perhaps a little preceding snow before turning to rain for most away from Scotland and far N of England

Edited December 5, 2017 by Nick F