Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[bluearmy]

I think the 12z runs will tell us what we need to know re the diving low. Ecm will not have the Atlantic so consistently wrong at day 4 which dictates the wedge ahead of the system. So by 6-30 this evening we should have a pretty good idea of the size of the envelope. Currently it's about as wide as it's been for the last five days! 

[chris55]

Where the slider low goes....nobody knows

Though it looks likely somewhere will see frontal snowfall come the end of the weekend. Plus we have the potent northerly and associated showers/streamers/troughs, interesting times. 

Edited December 5, 2017 by chris55

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think the 12z runs will tell us what we need to know re the diving low. Ecm will not have the Atlantic so consistently wrong at day 4 which dictates the wedge ahead of the system. So by 6-30 this evening we should have a pretty good idea of the size of the envelope. Currently it's about as wide as it's been for the last five days! 

Morning BA Is this a good or poor trend for coldies

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Morning BA Is this a good or poor trend for coldies

You would expect the envelope to be getting smaller as time ticks down. It shows the variability is large and probably explains why Exeter have been sat on the fence for so long. on the bass that if something can scupper a snow event for the uk then it does, I would like to have more certainty re the features and therefore I would say bad. Beyond the first system it remains cold but having that first system further sw locks in the proper cold for longer with less pm air in the mix.

[northwestsnow]

EC looks isolated this morning with its progressive run.

Then again the day 10 chart looks lovely whereas GFS fi looks horrid.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

FWIW the slider at around D8 produces something like 20 inches of snow in around 6-12 hours for N.England.

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Where the slider low goes....nobody knows

Though it looks likely somewhere will see frontal snowfall come the end of the weekend. Plus we have the potent northerly and associated showers/streamers/troughs, interesting times. 

GFS 00z shifts it more east towards land seems like a forecasters headache.

Edited December 5, 2017 by Daniel*

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

FWIW the slider at around D8 produces something like 20 inches of snow in around 6-12 hours for N.England.

On which model Feb

[Duane S.]

Can't see any major issues with the UKMO this morning, likes fine to me. Singing off the GFS song sheet, if not quite fully in tune.

GFS is simply dreamy, I won't allow myself to believe it will come off like that. Could it...?

ECM sticking to its guns sliding the low much further north to the point it sort of can't even be called a slider at this point. I still think it's wrong but be fair the more it sticks to its guns and the closer we get, the more it has to be taken seriously. Although a very decent looking end to the run.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

On which model Feb

I assume it's the ECM....

The ECM 0z run is less cold but has the potential for big falls of snow

[northwestsnow]

Just now, frosty ground said:

I assume it's the ECM....

The ECM 0z run is less cold but has the potential for big falls of snow

Hmmm a very learned member of TWO is suggesting rain, rain and more rain on ecm..

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

On which model Feb

ECM

[frosty ground]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm a very learned member of TWO is suggesting rain, rain and more rain on ecm..

That post is no referrng to the charts FEB is referrng too

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm a very learned member of TWO is suggesting rain, rain and more rain on ecm..

He is from the South East area and respectfully being challenged on his thoughts though.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM

cheers feb, hope your right- although the info from TWO suggests lots of cold hard rain..

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That post is no referrng to the charts FEB is referrng too

OK - its probably going to change before then anyway- hopefully for the better

[Dennis]

give it a chance this year....

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

cheers feb, hope your right- although the info from TWO suggests lots of cold hard rain..

SERIOULSY !!!!!!

quote "(As ever, there's more exciting stuff towards the end of the run. Trouble is, it's always a week or more away!)"

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

cheers feb, hope your right- although the info from TWO suggests lots of cold hard rain..

I'm not predicting that though, I think the GFS will be closer to the mark.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Let's just cross the slider low bridge when we get to it. Of course there is going to be chopping and changing! 

The main and most key thing here is that the cold is looking nailed on to being delivered. Once we get to Friday, we can then analyse with a clearer picture of what will happen with the progged slider slow scenario! Hopefully whilst I'm watching a Cheshire streamer in full force maybe giving me a covering 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

He is from the South East area and respectfully being challenged on his thoughts though.

Tbf' with how modeling is playing out just now there are 'far' too many devolping 'exactions' for doubt either way..in regard boundry lines dew points/850s/ lp alignment' etc.

This will all come down to closely -nowacasting-.

And as per a few big suprises in the mix!..

All very much an' evolving situ......to say the very least!!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

SERIOULSY !!!!!!

quote "(As ever, there's more exciting stuff towards the end of the run. Trouble is, it's always a week or more away!)"

Chill out!

Shouting is never a good way to discuss anything..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We got this starring us in the face, think we should get over this first before looking ahead.. 

 

2016

 

2015

2014

N/A

2013

Closet is 2012.. Even then not even as potent.

 

 

Incredible stuff so early on in winter comparing the last few years. Shows how potent this cold spell will be

[northwestsnow]

Anyway- lets see what the EC ens show..

Edited December 5, 2017 by northwestsnow

[jvenge]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm a very learned member of TWO is suggesting rain, rain and more rain on ecm..

 

Its showing as snow on the regional service section of ECM. Quite far out to think much about though.

Control and EPS mean less keen on the depths the operational goes for.

Edited December 5, 2017 by jvenge