Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[booferking]

Ecm gives us stronger winds far North looks like having blinding blizzards Thursday once the cold air arrives.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Ecm gives us stronger winds far North looks like having blinding blizzards Thursday once the cold air arrives.

Quite a storm developing if the ECM is anything to go by! 

[northwestsnow]

wow EC shows that low winding up much more than GFS!!! AT 72 

gfs

Edited December 4, 2017 by northwestsnow

[tight isobar]

Bonny-scotland in for a rough ride 7-dec..

Via ecm..

That winding LP-has some serious vent/wind...as it flows and begins intro-of polar air

@tight-isobars !!!

Edited December 4, 2017 by tight isobar

[ICE COLD]

25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not quite as cold as it will be later this week into next week looking at the short ens but very few members go above 0

Yes ss not as cold as this weekend next week but if we look at the 2 metre temps for London not really getting any higher than say 5 or 6 and that's in London so out of the city's and towns it will be colder. Not bad December weather really . A lot better than the last few ?

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A delightful GEFS 12z mean showing prolonged cold with scandi trough and mid atlantic ridge with an on-going chance of snow / wintry ppn and widespread frosts for much of the uk.

It's shaping-up to be something of a throwback to the early winters of yesteryear, IMO: I can remember many-many instances of cold and snowy northerlies; '67, '68 and '69 all had them...

And, if I remember rightly, the following New Years all had some kind of snowy easterlies. That's why the last few GFS runs have tweaked my interest... 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

24 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

From what I can remember with the last slider situation we had in January 2013 the fronts from that hit started off as rain then turned to snow with uppers only around -2. The thing was it was pulling air in from France so the dew points were below freezing also. Looking at this chart it could well be a similar set up and so you won't need uppers of -6-7 just need the few points to be dragged down ahead of the front so this could be a snow fest for more southerners too not just the usual north of M4 folk.

Remember it well as I was on the south coast that day driving back home. Probably the last decent proper snowfall we've had excluding march later that season. Settled rapidly and accumulated quickly as it was fine powdery type snow, normally associated with drier air. 

These charts however are nothing short of exceptional for the beginning of December. At this rate, we may just get a white Christmas. 

Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it! 

Edited December 4, 2017 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[gottolovethisweather]

5 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Quite a storm developing if the ECM is anything to go by! 

Certainly, something to be mindful of, but I think it'll help the cold air dig in deeper still behind it, that's what history tells us anyhow. I'm sure others can dig out some charts from the past which were precursors to colder snowier spells which looked similar. 

Edited December 4, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[northwestsnow]

EC 96!!

I'll take that thankyou very much!!!

[tight isobar]

Also ecm having no-problems introducing 'countrywide' depth of -8 850s...

All barring east-coastal.

A tap into icelandic flow looks likely...

= better850s moving forwards...

Ecm 12z

Edited December 4, 2017 by tight isobar

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Bony-scotland in for a rough ride 7-dec..

Via ecm..

That winding LP-has some serious vent/wind...as it flows and begins intro-of polar air

@tight-isobars !!!

All good for snow, but once again not so good if you're hoping to not get a risk of coastal flooding down the East coast 

Quite worrying if the ECM is setting a trend here to blow it up like that. 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Also ecm having no-problems introducing 'countrywide' depth of -8 850s...

All barring east-coastal.

A tap into icelandic flow looks likely...

= better850s moving forwards...

Ecm 12z

-8C only over Scotland by T120 and parts of Ireland T96

[Duane S.]

Fantastic GFS again. UKMO falling in line nicely as well. Don't give two hoots about the details at this stage.

Also a lot of people completely missing the point of the 'sliders'. You have to view them as a bonus if you get snow to low level parts, often (although not always) there is only a relatively narrow band above the SE wards tracking low(s) which will likely produce snow, either side dry to theNorth, rain/sleet to the south (it will correct SW, they always do). But be in the sweet spot band and it's bingo.

It is the overall after effect they have that is the all important point. solid lower pressure into central Europe.

Assuming they slide SEwards roughly where projected, we will be easily on the cold side of the jet, leaving no chance for the Atlantic to make inroads any time soon. Firm foundations set for a cold spell to follow. Forget the details!

(I see ECM D6 is starting to correct SW wards with the slider)

[Day 10]

The 'big 3' at 120

[Summer Sun]

Nasty lows developing at t144 though not desperately cold uppers

[bluearmy]

was hoping for better from ec op at day 6 based on earlier model output  - not liking its consistency from the 00z re the diving low

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Slider looks a bit further west than on 00Z EC, maybe just okay for Midlands, looking at chart, only SW in mild air?

[weirpig]

Can someone post me a link to ecm precipiton totals please. I've misplaced it ta. 

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

-8C only over Scotland by T120 and parts of Ireland T96

An awful lot of -5/6 in the mix.

Anyway the ecm is quite rapid in breakdown...

And has the flatening begining..

And plenty of milder air in the mix by t-144!

Edited December 4, 2017 by tight isobar

[Daniel*]

ECM is being cruel to us southerners drowned rats come to mind.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Can someone post me a link to ecm precipiton totals please. I've misplaced it ta. 

On the left under Select parameter

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature/20171204-2100z.html

[weirpig]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

On the left under Select parameter

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature/20171204-2100z.html

Bless ya thank you 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Slider looks a bit further west than on 00Z EC, maybe just okay for Midlands, looking at chart, only SW in mild air?

gavin has posted the uppers on ecm - poor for pretty well everyone south of a line south of yorks/lancs. the track wasn't so bad considering it had corrected a bit sw.

EDIT: checking ec snow chart reveals midlands north with a fair dumping so not so bad I guess for plenty of you

Edited December 4, 2017 by bluearmy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

ECM is being cruel to us southerners drowned rats come to mind.

Yes, looking at that it's too far east for us

[shaky]

Ecm slightly further west than this morining!!needs to keep goin west with the slider!!not too far west of course!!