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Paul

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Excellent output so far great to finally see the ukmo on board. The ecm must surly follow to round off a superb afternoons model watching.

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Just now, comet said:

Excellent output so far great to finally see the ukmo on board. The ecm must surly follow to round off a superb afternoons model watching.

Oh would love for it to follow, but can just see it being difficult and going against what current runs suggest aha.

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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Here is UKMO 144. A bit meh. 

Screen Shot 2017-12-04 at 16.36.04.png

Probably some snow of the leading edge ahead of the slightly less cold air

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.8f5f78b98d9349a29957299513a05ffb.GIF

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On 02/12/2017 at 22:48, LRD said:

Yep, looking at the southerly jet and persistent euro low on the 18z, my first thought was "backtrack". Or, to put it another way... no, it wasn't

Is it not the case the more chances we get at reloads the more chance of getting something special to happen i.e. 2010 

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gfsnh-0-240.png?12
Slightly odd I suppose but this is essentially the 12z GEM with some of the 'vigour' put into a LP development over C. Europe that then heads NE and draws the focus of low heights away with it.

Still constructing a continental feed situation though, even with the Arctic ridge aligned not nearly as helpfully as was the case in the previous two runs, thanks to that strong -ve PNA with a deep amplifying trough over E Canada which has turned up days 9-10 for a great many runs in a row now.

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5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Here is UKMO 144. A bit meh. 

Screen Shot 2017-12-04 at 16.36.04.png

UW144-7.GIF?04-17

Not for those in the N or NE it's not.

True that there's not much support at this stage for much to get southerners excited, but that could easily change as these events have a habit of adjusting S and W even at just two or even one days range.

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3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Here is UKMO 144. A bit meh. 

Screen Shot 2017-12-04 at 16.36.04.png

Disagree. As long as you keep the flow along that front east of south, most of the mild air is kept out.

I'd call it a "northern powerhouse" ... 

GFS is one slider after another. Northern areas could get absolutely pasted in the coming 10 days, maybe midlands too (and a teeny weeny chance for the most southern of us..)

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And here comes the easterly at the end again. To be honest, the 300 chart for GFS is almost replicated by the 144 Meto, if we can get heights pushing up over us then and easterly is almost bang on.

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And GFS12Z shows the importance of the euro low beautifully!!!

Beautiful run..

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I know that Mr and Mrs Spank need to pay a short sharp trip to Bottyland for me posting a GFS snow accumulation chart so far out, but this is mouth watering for lovers of the white stuff. Just look at the coverage.

gfs-16-234.png

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

I know that Mr and Mrs Spank need to pay a short sharp trip to Bottyland for me posting a GFS snow accumulation chart so far out, but this is mouth watering for lovers of the white stuff. Just look at the coverage.

gfs-16-234.png

hmmmm only knocker land and Ireland snow free- i'll take that with a huge pinch of salt!!

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No prizes for guessing' where we are going into FI...

every synoptic flagging up..

Via 12z gfs...

Thats if wintry weather is your thing!

The 850s can only imo be taken seriously from around wednesdays output, to many micro-dynamics on view to put that one to bed'yet'.

All in all some craking output.

 

Edited by tight isobar

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46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looking at the run-up to the weekend, this chart is not all bad:

h850t850eu.png

Yes T96 as well what can go wrong :hi:

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Disagree. As long as you keep the flow along that front east of south, most of the mild air is kept out.

I'd call it a "northern powerhouse" ... 

GFS is one slider after another. Northern areas could get absolutely pasted in the coming 10 days, maybe midlands too (and a teeny weeny chance for the most southern of us..)

It’s okay for the North and NE, but pants for the rest of us as milder air gets in ahead of the slider.

Edited by Gustywind

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GFS showing some proper blocking at the end of the run, and it's now consistently modelled a Scandinavian high at the end of its runs. Really think something might be brewing and just in time for the festive celebrations 👍

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Is this the fourth successive run that has ended with snowfest, I mean block?

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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Used the ignore button more than refresh this afternoon lol

great 12z just need ecm to smell the coffee 

 

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From the blocked AT- ridge..

To scandi conversion.

A quite remarkable run/start-to finish.

And a run that locks the uk...and most europe....into real winter!

A very worth while ec-12z for view this evening!!!

gfs-1-336.png

Edited by tight isobar

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2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Used the ignore button more than refresh this afternoon lol

great 12z just need ecm to smell the coffee 

 

So long as it's best Colombian and not Morrisons Savers!:drunk-emoji:

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Well the ensembles chart looks so cold and snowy for my location in South Wales but the BBC forecast itself has none of it with average temperatures right through from Thursday night and heavy rain on Sunday (oh the joys of living on the coast), only good news is there would be a lot of dry, sunny weather although despite clear skies overnight no frost is even expected with lows of 3 or 4C. Very strange  :cc_confused:

image.jpeg

image.png

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