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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Question ? , I’m still learning off these charts , snow or rain? Looks close to me. And yes all academic at this range.

 

4A772287-5BED-4964-AD89-70C221240AE7.png

F4930486-1A8D-4108-8033-C474D9908C08.png

Snow over England north of the M4 corridor and Northern Ireland. Rain for Southern England and Southern Ireland.

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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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Fascinating watching the jet buckle and energy going SE- feeding the euro low.

UKMO is close to something very very nice at 144 imho :)

just watching GFS is like rinse and repeat, again and again.

Edited by northwestsnow
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It gets said a lot but no point in getting hung up on where any snowline may or may not be, there are always winners and losers in marginal set ups.

Rinse repeat?

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

The good news is that there will be several opportunities for snow falling for just about everyone at some stage through first half of December and perhaps beyond.

Edited by Mucka
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13 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Question ? , I’m still learning off these charts , snow or rain? Looks close to me. And yes all academic at this range.

 

4A772287-5BED-4964-AD89-70C221240AE7.png

F4930486-1A8D-4108-8033-C474D9908C08.png

Rain, sleet and snow, depending on location and elevation..a wintry cocktail..more likely snow further north and east..great to be discussing snow as a realistic prospect isn't it..:)

Edited by Frosty.
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3 minutes ago, snowstorm445 said:

Snow over England north of the M4 corridor and Northern Ireland. Rain for Southern England and Southern Ireland.

Uppers are marginal for snow. 

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gem-0-150.png?12 gem-0-204.png?12 gem-0-234.png?12

GEM 12z just keeps on hurling those sliding lows into a trough that gains some seriously low heights. All areas go sub-516 at least briefly, and the far north sub-512 for a time.

I gather this translates to strong snow prospects even with uppers short of the -6 to -8 that some may look for under a polar maritime (although mixed with polar continental in this case) airmass. 

A vast improvement from the 00z and brings it in line with the trend that GFS started following a day or two ago.

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1 minute ago, Singularity said:

gem-0-150.png?12 gem-0-204.png?12 gem-0-234.png?12

GEM 12z just keeps on hurling those sliding lows into a trough that gains some seriously low heights. All areas go sub-516 at least briefly, and the far north sub-512 for a time.

I gather this translates to strong snow prospects even with uppers short of the -6 to -8 that some may look for under a polar maritime (although mixed with polar continental in this case) airmass. 

A vast improvement from the 00z and brings it in line with the trend that GFS started following a day or two ago.

Two things - firstly gem uppers are generally overstated so take 2c off them and secondly, the surface thickness much less impressive but under a stagnant deep trough surface thicknesses become less relevant (I know you know this but others may not !)

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npsh500.png npsh500.png

It is of considerable note that we're seeing the ridge to our NW re-establishing a good deal faster on the 12z GFS compared to the previous few.

gfsgwo_1.pngALL_emean_phase_full.gif 

Good progress with the tropical forcing and atmospheric setup in today's observed GWO and also the ECMF prediction for the MJO in the near-term. That it's had to adjust so very much already makes me highly suspicious of it's desire to collapse the  MJO on the 6-7 line. It's as if the model is being constrained by an assumed 'normal La Nina' background state... I've never seen a bias-adjusted EPS on the non-monthly scale so maybe that's actually the case...?

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SOS from the polar vortex, might have to place a missing PV report in, after its being attacked by warm air right around the northern hemisphere.

Bodes well for the rest of December as can't see the jigsaw pieces coming back together in the near term from that view. 

 

S71204-162744.jpg

Edited by geordiekev
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Cracking output so far-

sliding lows subject to revision SOUTH WEST-

UK mean 168-216 unlikely to rise above -4c @850 maybe even -6c..

GEM is amazing but its such a cannon fodder model...

awaits GFS FI...

Steve am I correct that we only just need the uppers to be just below freezing for snow to fall if the feed is coming off the continent??

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cracking output so far-

sliding lows subject to revision SOUTH WEST-

UK mean 168-216 unlikely to rise above -4c @850 maybe even -6c..

GEM is amazing but its such a cannon fodder model...

awaits GFS FI...

Prone to dodgy runs but it still verifies close to gfs. If it’s on the same sheet as the other models then it’s solution is worth chucking into the pot

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cracking output so far-

sliding lows subject to revision SOUTH WEST-

UK mean 168-216 unlikely to rise above -4c @850 maybe even -6c..

GEM is amazing but its such a cannon fodder model...

awaits GFS FI...

UKMO looks a bit dodgy though at t144, atlantic air making inroads?

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