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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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ECM is as BA pointed out very much on the mild side of the ensembles at the key time frame as well as a tad blowy. So hopefully in the 12z we will see a weaker feature, that will be much more likely to slide more favourably south east than the 00z. One to watch as the GFS is having none of it.

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22 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Times like these are when I would love to see what MOGREPS is showing for the slider....

I believe the Meto long range forecast is heavily influenced by MOGREPS so if you read that it will tell you...In summary it goes for the slider low running across southern areas. 

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What a stunning, sensational end to the Gfs 6z with charts that remind me of the last time we had a severe wintry spell 7 years ago.:shok::cold:. The arctic blast later this week is upgraded with ice days, heavy snow showers, hard frosts and plenty of ice. Throughout the run the depth of cold ebbs and flows before really intensifying from the E / NE towards the end with a wall of snow marching westwards!..great stuff, hoping the majority of us get lots of the white stuff we richly deserve following recent years of generally mild miserable mush!:cold: 

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Yes, great charts, just needs that shortwave a couple of hundred miles west any you've got a very potent shortwave wrapped in -15c uppers, believe me, that at this time of year would wreak havoc on some scale.

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Just a selection of charts from earlier in the incredible 6z with a strong arctic blast later this week and an even stronger  very cold spell towards the end being the main highlights but the other feature that's great to see is the lack of mild mush after this midweek..good riddance.!!:shok::santa-emoji::cold-emoji::D

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You have to say at this stage this seems like a fair representation of where we will see snow cover from the upcoming cold spell and the reason why its been dissapointing the initial low moving across us didnt work out as suggested by the GFS last Friday. If any slider low fails to happen then i can see many places missing out on snow for the time being.

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7 minutes ago, MKN said:

You have to say at this stage this seems like a fair representation of where we will see snow cover from the upcoming cold spell and the reason why its been dissapointing the initial low moving across us didnt work out as suggested by the GFS last Friday. If any slider low fails to happen then i can see many places missing out on snow for the time being.

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What is the scale roughly for these, as in depth?

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8 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

What is the scale roughly for these, as in depth?

Only place with deep snow is Northern Scotland, other places the Green show 2-5cm roughly, why they have to have mathematical representations for a few cm of snow is anyone's guess, you might as well start having the 500mb height charts in standard index form!!!    Anyway, these charts I find do under do the snow depth totals, while I think the ECM over do them.

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Nobody should really be surprised by the stunning longer range charts showing on the GFS 06z. Its very simple really. If you stop or dilute the west to east motion of energy long enough. The beast from the east will show it's hand or as in this case a bloomin great fist.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

 

 

After that, well, something I've never seen before. For the third successive run, only 1 cluster between D10 and D15. So either they've given up producing clusters beyond T240, or there's a lot of agreement on what is coming next. Here's the past three runs for 18th December:

 

 

They may have stopped providing them MWB. That’s three consecutive runs doing this. I can only assume that if it isn’t fixed on this evenings outptut that someone from Reading has ‘had a word’

 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They may have stopped providing them MWB. That’s three consecutive runs doing this. I can only assume that if it isn’t fixed on this evenings outptut that someone from Reading has ‘had a word’

 

You would have thought that, that's why its best just to describe anything beyond 240 and not post charts, ive learned that and that's all ive been doing lately, however though, its not as inconceivable as I fisrt thought that there could be only one cluster on this run, look at the tight bunching on the London ens - very tight for 10-15d period.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

You would have thought that, that's why its best just to describe anything beyond 240 and not post charts, ive learned that and that's all ive been doing lately, however though, its not  inconceivable as I fisrt thought that there could be only one cluster on this run, look at the tight bunching on the London ens - very tight for 10-15d period.

it is

if only that its three runs on the bounce

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I can see where the idea of a scandi ridge introducing as easterly flow is coming from but the probability output from the ens is far from convincing. No appetite to raise pressure in the area nw of Russia and the momentum for higher slp heading west comes from further south across Russia. Assuming it does push west, at this stage,  it looks to be too far south to do anything other than hold the sceuro troughing in place. That's ok! 

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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Those who are expecting most of the uk will miss out on snow later this week and the weekend might get a surprise, with troughs swinging south in the arctic flow that would mean bands of snow showers spreading south so whilst on the face of it it's a wishbone effect with exposed western and especially northern and eastern areas catching most of the frequent snow showers there could be snow inland at times...in any case, it will feel arctic with high windchill and biting Northerly winds with drifting snow and widespread frosts early and late with maxima hardly above freezing and feeling well below zero!..Enjoy:santa-emoji: 

I think the problem is some want the holy grail of over 1 foot of snow ITBY every time. This outlook is so much better than we've been used to and with the chance of snow popping up anywhere. Maybe turning into prolonged snow is great and all this before Christmas. What's also exciting is the chance of sustained cold from the continent after this weekend and in the run up to Christmas

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19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Those who are expecting most of the uk will miss out on snow later this week and the weekend might get a surprise, with troughs swinging south in the arctic flow that would mean bands of snow showers spreading south so whilst on the face of it it's a wishbone effect with exposed western and especially northern and eastern areas catching most of the frequent snow showers there could be snow inland at times...in any case, it will feel arctic with high windchill and biting Northerly winds with drifting snow and widespread frosts early and late with maxima hardly above freezing and feeling well below zero!..Enjoy:santa-emoji: 

Streamers too. Cheshire Gap streamer in particular. Could push snow showers quite far across the Midlands and perhaps towards the London area.

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