Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
41 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Snow showers piling down from the North for many!

gfseu-2-120.thumb.png.8557049fff917b46c135c46697a8412b.png

I'm not one of those many though, see that small clear bit down south lol. Detail like that will chop and change multiple times between know and nearer the time anyway. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I wonder whether we might see some -15c readings in prone frost hollows in Scotland.

Somewhere like Loch Glascarnoch with snow on the ground and the wind slackening off could reach those values.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I wonder whether we might see some -15c readings in prone frost hollows in Scotland.

Somewhere like Loch Glascarnoch with snow on the ground and the wind slackening off could reach those values.

Sunday monday yes- especially if the High drifts over a little...

even here in the SE -5c is easily achievable in -8c air & a slack NNW flow...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
30 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

More amplified UKMO output and it could be that longer range the set up going forward is better with a shortwave running closer to the UK than heading for Iberia.

Whilst you've got that embedded cold over the UK you want some fronts to engage that.

I think the shortwave exit point for the UK is more condusive for that, so it might come as a surprise but for forward evolution I prefer the UKMO.

What you want is the energy heading towards the UK and diverting into France not Iberia.

Was just going to say the same thing. UKMO would probably still result in some sort of undercut

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

GFS control run:D

gens-0-1-168.png

gens-0-0-168.png

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Was just going to say the same thing. UKMO would probably still result in some sort of undercut

I'm intrigued to see what the UKMO T168hrs output looks like later.

Its always a juggling act in these situations between keeping the UK in the cold air and having some fronts to engage that and bring some snow.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

All looks good until at least Monday week - but, after that, the trusty GFS seems to go off on a tangent...Good enough reason for not paying too much attention to what individual model-runs say post, say, T+168 or so...?:D

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
22 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I'm still not buying the way GFS handles that low and send it South instead of SE but nice to see a strong signal for continued amplification in FI.

gfsnh-0-264.png?12

If GFS is right with the undercut and if that low does track SE as we might expect then that snow storm that was in the output might creep back in just for a later date.

gensnh-13-1-174.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Bitterly cold air across the country by Friday on this UKMO run

XUW144-7.thumb.GIF.e23ad9c027118e2f90d20c3f385cd81e.GIF

A  polar low could form with short notice in that cold setup,  strong northly wind for 72 hours very cold uppers:cold:

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

All looks good until at least Monday week - but, after that, the trusty GFS seems to go off on a tangent...Good enough reason for not paying too much attention to what individual model-runs say post, say, T+168 or so...?:D

Now come on Pete. The accolades were being heaped on the gfs only a couple of hours ago. Surely it's not going to suffer the recent fate of the ecm and be discarded like an old sock on the strength of one run? :whistling:

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Control looks cold it to day 8.:cold:

gens-0-1-180.png

Control can sometimes be on the money more than the op. This is what we want to see of course, if only we could get some sort of channel low out of this?:rolleyes:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Now come on Pete. The accolades were being heaped on the gfs only a couple of hours ago. Surely it's not going to suffer the recent fate of the ecm and be discarded like an old sock on the strength of one run? :whistling:

Aye, knocks. But that was yesterday - this is today!:D

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Short ens London. 

4B3DA553-BEB8-47D3-8C51-BD29D21643DC.thumb.gif.307e92c4f9e2a6a11b250a4711c6cbd3.gif

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

It is conceivable that we could see a channel low if we get the slider running down the western side of the UK and then heads east. Long shot at this stage but something to watch perhaps.

Just seen pert 13 and it shows this scenario playing out so you never know.

Edited by comet
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
5 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Would this be an indication that Russia would be under high pressure ? 

Not necessary ; its more the like where the cold air is or not

Edited by Dennis
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

The way the control goes is how I think it will go, seems the most plausible route. 

That area of low pressure is absolutely huge. is that normal?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...