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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I thought the 6z was a an upgrade on the 0z in terms of snow prospects for many, including a strong Cheshire Gap streamer for here, other parts of the Midlands and parts of Wales. Although, finer details will chop and change until very short range, of course. A bit surprised to see some doom and gloom on here. 

Totally Agree, wasn't it the case that the UKMO took it's time to catch up/come on board with the GFS/ECM early last week....Regarding the northerly we'll just experienced.

UKMO as being struggling of late if you ask me.

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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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Reading between the lines, the upcoming arctic blast looks more potent than the last one with troughs swinging south in the arctic airflow at times with more in the way of snow showers and increasingly frosty / icy..my kind of weather!:D..doesn't look like turning milder after like when our last cold snap ended either...so something like the GEFS 6z mean with continued cold and a wintry mix of precipitation..and at least some snow at times for most of us followed by further cold, frosty generally blocked weather..unlike late last autumn and early winter when there was lots of potential that ultimately delivered nothing...this time it looks much more likely to deliver what most of us want!:cold::cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I find that comment puzzling, can you explain please 'clear mild sector' ?

Perhaps I am missing the tongue in cheek idea?

thanks

sorry, was meant for other thread, 'whiners' can see it though on chart I posted? or maybe it's cold air delayed? because 00Z showed it arriving at 3pm Thurs

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Anyone noticed a pattern in recent weeks?

12th Nov                                                    18th Nov                                                   24th Nov                                                28th Nov  
CFSR_1_2017111218_1.pngCFSR_1_2017111818_1.pngCFSR_1_2017112418_1.pngCFSR_1_2017112812_1.png

8th Dec

image.thumb.png.ae9135eec1e2ea8927058ba889f75339.png

The persistence of northerly reloads this late autumn/early winter has been remarkable. The polar vortex is still an annoyance but if we keep battering the door we may make an eventual breakthrough.

Undercutting still a strong signal in the models but the UKMO is a little concerning, to sustain our cold we want an undercutting low to prop up the high to our west. The ECM and GFS are good though. Lets see what happens.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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It would be virtually impossible, if not extremely unlikely that we could get 'upgrade' after 'upgrade' for everybody in all far flung corners of the UK. One person's 'upgrade' is more than likely going to be another person's 'downgrade'.

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4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Anyone noticed a pattern in recent weeks?

12th Nov                                                    18th Nov                                                   24th Nov                                                28th Nov  
CFSR_1_2017111218_1.pngCFSR_1_2017111818_1.pngCFSR_1_2017112418_1.pngCFSR_1_2017112812_1.png

8th Dec

image.thumb.png.ae9135eec1e2ea8927058ba889f75339.png

The persistence of northerlies this late autumn/early winter has been remarkable. The polar vortex is still an annoyance but if we keep battering the door we may make an eventual breakthrough.

Undercutting still a strong signal in the models but the UKMO is a little concerning, to sustain our cold we want an undercutting low to prop up the high to our west. The ECM and GFS are good though. Lets see what happens.

With a merridonal jet ,forecasters must be tearing their hair out ,lol

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53 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Clear mild sector moving from the north on GFS, Thursday night, only places to see snow off this are 500m plus, but FI yet, so hope better charts to come, but this is ugly!

hgt500-1000.png

I don't see any mild sector but there may be a mild sector within the core of the low pressure system especially if it deepens rapidly like the models are indicating it will do as it crosses the UK but this won't affect the Northerly blast as the airstream is strong so the cold air should not have any milder sectors within it.

I think the basic message will be a low pressure will zip across us during mid week which at first will bring quite mild air then as it heads into Scandinavia the UK will get quite a sharp Northerly blast. Of course what happens after that is a lot more uncertain but the initial feeling I get is that the Northerly will weaken but will the Northerly collapse via a high pressure heading over us or will low pressure try and come from the North West and interact with any cold pool over the UK kind of like what the ECM shows.

One other thing to note is the potential for severe gales, not like that GFS 12Z run of a few days back which was extraordinary but stormy winds are certainly possible and of course that mean the potential for places to see Blizzards. The only thing I don't want too see in the output is for the models to faff on trying to get that low to clear eastwards as this will delay the convective potential.

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14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Reading between the lines, the upcoming arctic blast looks more potent than the last one with troughs swinging south in the arctic airflow at times with more in the way of snow showers and increasingly frosty / icy..my kind of weather!:D..doesn't look like turning milder after like when our last cold snap ended either...so something like the GEFS 6z mean with continued cold and a wintry mix of precipitation..and at least some snow at times for most of us followed by further cold, frosty generally blocked weather..unlike late last autumn and early winter when there was lots of potential that ultimately delivered nothing...this time it looks much more likely to deliver what most of us want!:cold::cold-emoji:

Completely agree Frosty, Friday could be a really good day for many...

gfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.55ea565d33705059b3e48dbfd7c6350a.pnggfseu-1-126.thumb.png.978f05a0cfc23b42132844cc8e81e732.pnggfseu-2-126.thumb.png.4268925f826cf501f38dfdac76239f5a.png

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean is a cracker if you love cold and want it to stay around until mid Dec. Check out these beauties..arctic blast from later in the coming week and then it stays generally cold with plenty of frosts / ice and an on going chance of snow!:cold-emoji::D:drinks: 

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Some of those (well, all of them?) coastal maximums look a tad inflated to me, given that many such places didn't exceed 2 or 3C, last Friday? :unknw:

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25 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Looking at current run ,Wales should be able to increase its GDP  by exporting snowmen :rofl:

yep - special customs taxes on them too - and restricted entry to our snow also lol

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16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Some of those (well, all of them?) coastal maximums look a tad inflated to me, given that many such places didn't exceed 2 or 3C, last Friday? :unknw:

I was very happy with the 6z mean, plenty of cold days, especially inland with temps hardly above freezing and plunging overnight, no sign of a return to mild once this current mild interval ends..really looking forward to this unstable Northerly arctic blast with troughs lining up to swing south.:)..imagine how good Fridays fax will look:shok:

PPVO89.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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38 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Anyone noticed a pattern in recent weeks?

12th Nov                                                    18th Nov                                                   24th Nov                                                28th Nov  
CFSR_1_2017111218_1.pngCFSR_1_2017111818_1.pngCFSR_1_2017112418_1.pngCFSR_1_2017112812_1.png

8th Dec

image.thumb.png.ae9135eec1e2ea8927058ba889f75339.png

The persistence of northerly reloads this late autumn/early winter has been remarkable. The polar vortex is still an annoyance but if we keep battering the door we may make an eventual breakthrough.

Undercutting still a strong signal in the models but the UKMO is a little concerning, to sustain our cold we want an undercutting low to prop up the high to our west. The ECM and GFS are good though. Lets see what happens.

Good spot. Personally I can see another northerly coming after an attempt at an undercut.

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22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I was very happy with the 6z mean, plenty of cold days, especially inland with temps hardly above freezing and plunging overnight, no sign of a return to mild once this current mild interval ends..really looking forward to this unstable Northerly arctic blast with troughs lining up to swing south.:)..imagine how good Fridays fax will look:shok:

PPVO89.jpg

Reckon there's a chance of a polar low forming...? 

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32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ain't that the bald truth of it? I'll get my coat!:oops:

I thought this was funny but I'm pointless again..sorry Ed:laugh:

Anyway, following yesterdays excitement..looks like there is plenty more to come from the 12z..that's the kiss of death then!:D

 

Edited by Frosty.
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What wonderful model output we are getting at the moment, with one northerly followed by another and with the next one now being certain to be a potent one!   Friday looks like quite a snowy day for north western parts with quite frequent snow showers a times. Here in the Isle of Man with NW to NNW winds we usally get a feed of showers through the north channel, so looking forward to some of the white stuff.   After that though we look like keeping cold air in situ, and with slider lows perhaps then on the menu, how long before we see the Beast from the East ?     Just before Christmas perhaps ?   

Edited by JBMWeatherForever
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