Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Rocheydub]

11 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well not long now till the next instalment of model runs. Will the gfs and ukmo stick to there guns. Or will they move towards the ecm thoughts of a brief northerly later next week. Only concern for me is the verification stats of the gfs which is languishing in 5th place at the moment. Think my eyes will be firmly fixed on the ecm and ukmo which are performing much better. Anyway eyes down for the model rollercoaster.

Would be very brave to back any model until maybe the 12z's tomorrow. I am of course rooting for GFS, but until there is consensus for a couple of runs in a row, then I'm not backing anything! It really is a terrific model watching right now mind you!

[comet]

Would be nice to see a correction souh with the low  and pull away slightly futher east to allow coldest uppers down across the country.

What we dont want to see is any back tracks at this stage in the game.

[karyo]

The 12z ICON is not great. It is less amplified than the previous runs and gives us a brief northerly.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

[karyo]

12z gfs out till 96 hours looking nice.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0

[shaky]

Gfs looking really good at 102 hours!!shortwave further south and cold air coming into scotland!!

[Mucka]

12z still has the shortwave low in Northerly flow. That may give some snow if it happens.

shows up well on ppn charts just East of Iceland here.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Mucka

[andymusic]

GFS on every run is bringing the low in and hence the lower 850s in sooner and sooner now Thursday morning rather than afternoon

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 12z ICON is not great. It is less amplified than the previous runs and gives us a brief northerly.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

It's really heartbreaking  that the 12z Icon isn't really on-board, don't think I will sleep tonight.

[karyo]

It is great to see the GFS not backing down!

[karlos1983]

Just now, karyo said:

It is great to see the GFS not backing down!

Looking very good!

[karyo]

Just now, Frosty. said:

It's really heartbreaking  that the 12z Icon isn't really on-board, don't think I will sleep tonight.

Don't laugh, when a cold spell is possible we need all the models to agree. 

[Derecho]

Very convincing height rises to our NW, a bit better then the 06z as well. Should reap the rewards in later frames.

[karlos1983]

UKMO still very much onboard 

[southbank]

3 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

good afternoon all, i have no clue in understanding charts etc but i do love reading peoples views and the hunt for snow, and things by the sound of it are looking possible come the back end of next week, i am off for a 3 night trip to Lapland tomorrow morning with the wife and our son, i will have a word with the big man himself and see if he will give us a fab xmas present and deliver lots of snow on xmas day and beyond.

3 days ??? You might max out of luck , Monday evening looking clear and the northern lights are suppose to be high that night fingers cross

 

back 12z , subtle changes on GFS but really need to see what Ukmo and ECM make of the low 

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

GFS 12Z is another cracker

Certainly snow on the menu for lots of happy Net weather campers !!

[karlos1983]

Now come on ECM, don’t let us down

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Don't laugh, when a cold spell is possible we need all the models to agree. 

I've never even looked at an icon run yet, that's how much I rate it

[snowice]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS 12Z is another cracker

Certainly snow on the menu for lots of happy Net weather campers !!

UKmo 144 snow feast 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO still very much onboard 

That's a relief, although it is not as good as the gfs.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, snowice said:

UKmo 144 snow feast 

sounds good....not that i dont trust your judgement,,, but i can't bear to look lol.

[Captain Shortwave]

So another unstable northerly to end next week

  

There should be some showery troughs moving south in the flow.

GFS similar

   

So turning colder from Thursday, in fact the cold air looks to chase southward fat enough to turn the back edge of the front to snow. Plenty of showers to follow with 850s at -6C or lower which given other parameters should be good enough for snow to low levels.

One big factor again is regarding a possible interaction of the Atlantic ridge and the heights over the pole which would block any advance of low pressure from the west and possibly allow colder air to move south from the arctic.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[That ECM]

Gfs Block looks stronger if anything but little in it. Ukmo not quite as strong and would like to see get a little further north but probably being a bit picky.

[Polar Maritime]

Again the GFS stamps out a cold Northerly into next week.

 

Edited December 2, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Lowestoft Weather]

Looks like the UK is heading into the freezer from Thursday PM with plenty of snow to-boot. If you like minus temperatures and snow with drifting in the strong winds then the end of next week is for you!!!!! BBBrrrrrrrrrrr 

[snowbob]

I really want to believe this time ha ha

not getting sucked in just yet

ecm needs to step up

then I will be slightly more confident

must admit gfs and ukmo not backing away