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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You have no idea how hacked off im going to be if its anything like its last 2 runs...surely the weight of gfs00z/Gefs/ukmo have to bear down..

Ps northerly..tight isobars...warmish north sea surely wont be dry!

I would amazed if the ECM doesn't come on board.  The GFS and Ukmo would amazingly wrong otherwise. 

 

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ECM is probably going to say no to the ridiculous blizzard (rain more likely) but yes to a cold Northerly outbreak afterwards.

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Just now, Edlav said:

What time does the ECM start running guys?

Now . 6am - 7am

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The low sits over the North Sea for 4 days, feeding in snow. This is "potentially" going to be a period to remember.  ECM on board although with the low slightly more North East but still giving us what we crave.  

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All 3 at t144. All on the same page with small differences. Game on!! Love this trend to firm up over the next couple of days and then we can start looking for details:D

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All at day 6... well there we have it cross model agreement of sorts an amplified ridge the EC the least unusual since typically it’s the model to go full throttle, and cold cyclonic trough! GFS top this morning wise followed by UKMO it’s more amplified but with less trough disruption I bet the name frame would be a belter so hard to say. All offer wintriness in early to medium timeframe, you can’t complain with that really.

B64C9FF7-3047-41EF-A646-46C53A57BF69.thumb.png.60f7401688b17a81b72cb9e4d3a2fd88.png9CB59A55-C92F-45FA-B81B-1D73948ED6E5.thumb.gif.56a0d45ec4974fa703ad5633dd5abfb8.gif22095C4A-A42C-4DFC-A932-37304BFFB264.thumb.png.3842b151d810053e12a201630bea8c07.png

 

Edited by Daniel*
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The ecm has a front and heavy rain impacting the UK by T114 (Weds 1800) with the low west of Ireland and possibly south westerly gales. Over the next 24 hours the low does deepen to 974mb and tracks ENE to be over Oslo whilst the front moves south east bringing heavy rain to all areas. Behind the front the wind veers northerly, perhaps touching gale force in the north,  accompanied by frequent wintry showers before a transient ridge edges in on Saturday which rapidly gives way to the next frontal system arriving from the north west with more rain and gales. At which point there is an 140kt jet dipping SE just west of the UK

Edited by knocker
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So excited viewing this mornings runs. Going to be an interesting time ahead with that low being in the north sea as I'm in Northumberland and we've got a flag display to do! :rofl: Good to see the agreement too across the models.

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EC is trying it wouldn’t take significant change for something much more wintry and dare I say it snowy. Credit where it’s due to GFS too often it is cast aside. :good: 

Deeply interesting start to meteorological winter..

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Just for info

ECM has the initial front on Thursday as rain with snow over hills. However on Friday night it produces a trough in the flow that gives a covering to most of England/Wales by Saturday morning. Rain returns later in the weekend (though ECM, once again, looks alone on this,).

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56 minutes ago, Edlav said:

What time does the ECM start running guys?

Welcome.

Another Fylde Coaster.

Leave now for the sake of your sanity :D

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Not overly enthused with that EC det.

Need corrections south with the low at 120-144... and its MUCH less amplified than either UKMO or GFS.

Looks wet for most apart from a brief 24 hour window- we lose the cold uppers through saturday- ominously it looks and sounds like the meto update- rain moving in through the weekend...

Edited by northwestsnow

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36 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just for info

ECM has the initial front on Thursday as rain with snow over hills. However on Friday night it produces a trough in the flow that gives a covering to most of England/Wales by Saturday morning. Rain returns later in the weekend (though ECM, once again, looks alone on this,).

But it might be alone but it ties in with the meto update overnight!!

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not overly enthused with that EC det.

Need corrections south with the low at 120-144... and its MUCH less amplified than either UKMO or GFS.

Looks wet for most apart from a brief 24 hour window.

Yeah agree room for improvement but there is still time for change even if the ECM meets the Ukmo/Gfs half way at 120 hrs we should still get a decent snow event.

Anything after 144hrs is up in the air (as Always)until they pin down the track of the low.

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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Anyone got the UKMO 0z 168hr chart?

Where does that chart come from by the way?

Here it is:D

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Ec mean due out- hopefully will be better than the Det!! After viewing the GEFS 00z that EC run would be a pretty BIG mild outlier in the suite!!

Edited by northwestsnow

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13 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Nah I think the ukmo will be right;):cold-emoji::bomb: boom!

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I still think the ukmo will be right!!..BOOM;):cold-emoji::bomb:

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

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TBF the EC mean at day 10 looks OK, scandy low sinking south into Europe,only issue is the azores high- hopefully the cold trough will drop anchor across southern France..

EDH1-240.GIF?02-12

meanwhile events in the strat could begetting intersting-zonal winds forecast  to start dropping off again!!

Edited by northwestsnow

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GEM is very similar to EC - less than amplified at 144- further on its the jet diving SE into Europe preventing the azrs high ridging into Europe.

As mentioned previously although the jet is running into Europe we lack the cold uppers a wedge of high pressure to our north or north east would bring.

 

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