Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen
Paul

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Very good runs for cold this morning, GFS more amplified and with that deep low trapped in the North sea dragging in cold Arctic air and organised bands of sleet and snow showers after initial heavy rain/sleet/snow clears.

gfsnh-0-162.png

UKMO looking good for cold too but perhaps with the low tracking a little further North.

UN120-21.GIF?02-05

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Very impressive run. Pressure charts might not look as good as the 18Z but precipitation charts are a lot better. If only we can see that low drop into europe and a scandi ridge form, that'd be the icing on the cake 

It is indeed snowfall working it’s way down S the spine of the country at T+150.

50C95A2E-B6D5-4EF2-AF37-EA8EE7AB6709.thumb.png.24f6694cc2a6c81c0159eaa719a1373a.pngC8AF8544-4E7F-407F-AE54-6D9D4FC7971F.thumb.png.fc094357774629fa9937a25f70c39cb3.png

If this were to materialise I’m sure some in the high ground of the north will need to be buried out! 

At least the GFS is being consistent :) 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

How aren’t the MetO forecasting a northerly yet in their outlook !?!?, their model has looked primed for it ! GFS just isn’t letting go of the idea at all ! 

the MetO are the ones who forecast a mild winter for 09/10 and we know how that turned out. I think they always want to err on the side of caution and wait until at least 5 days out

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Delete

 

Edited by Daniel*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slider low territory? Further on with a wedge of +ve heights to NW I think 2013 had something similar. I’d take this to the BANK no questions asked. Best run of the season so far for the white stuff. 

D0D01F15-1BD3-4A36-B53A-8BC9ABE29C50.thumb.png.104c19426ba2b0a22db941a966361851.png9294B10E-CCF0-4028-9075-62E377D561EF.thumb.png.0b4f195134a8ec006afb836ebd4e6013.png.

 

Edited by Daniel*
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When the MetO talked of slow moving systems, I'm not sure they had a low just sitting over the North sea for 3 days+ in mind.

gfsnh-0-132.pnggfsnh-0-204.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well something has to give soon, either a model run or human forecast, its not going to be the 0z GEFS suite, if anything they're even better than the 18z.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the UKMO Blocking

EPIC -AO

IMG_1502.thumb.PNG.f2a60bf0d301ae2cb1c10ef4a93d0d29.PNG

That will do me stevey boy!!!!!CARNAGE !!!!:cold::yahoo:

PS if EC doesn't come on board this morning  i officially give up!!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well something has to give soon, either a model run or human forecast, its not going to be the 0z GEFS suite, if anything they're even better than the 18z.

They have already mentioned in the week ahead good chance northerly winds return so its no secret it's in there forecast.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09gsflt/weather-for-the-week-ahead-02122017

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

While we wait for the 00z runs it might be worth bearing in mind Exeter have updated their outlook a short time ago and again there is very little mention of snow next week...mainly wind and rain followed by wintry showers and then a wet weekend....

In other words they are having absolutely nothing to do with recent GFS ops or for that matter the GEFS.

 

That’s the same as bbc forecast last night cold after midweek as a Northerly wind come back then maybe a NW wind next weekend-however you do realise that update was written before this morning runs,so probably change anyway.

 

Both gfs ukmo agree it’s turning colder again and maybe stormy too.Who knows exactly after 5 days ahead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, booferking said:

They have already mentioned in the week ahead good chance northerly winds return so its no secret it's in there forecast.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09gsflt/weather-for-the-week-ahead-02122017

Yes but the text forecast....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but the text forecast....

Ec show same in an hour they will update today.:cold:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ec show same in an hour they will update today.:cold:

I don' think they will update anything until Monday at the earliest,still alot of uncertainty 

Dispite the fantastic UKMO and GFS this morning 

Just IMO though.

C.S. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kudos to GFS if we get any cold shot in the period showing as it has been touting the idea for a good few days,  even in the face of  ridicule for it being in 10+ day range. 

It really is like a dog with a bone at times and that's why I lurvs it when it does find cold trends in Winter as I'm on the hunt for my 5th day of falling snow and a top up soon before its all disappeared.

Cmon ECM, last one to the party brings the ICE 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ShortWaveHell said:

How aren’t the MetO forecasting a northerly yet in their outlook !?!?, their model has looked primed for it ! GFS just isn’t letting go of the idea at all ! 

Thats the thing - its concerning, i almost wish EC was cancelled this morning, im sure it will ruin my mood...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well both GFS and UKMO look fabulous... i just checked the temps on GFS 0z and its cold, at times really cold for a good week or so...

Is anyone else dreading EC?

I know i am.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Come on ECM, don't let us down.

In fairness the ECM 0z have been more amplified than the 12z, so everything crossed.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Come on ECM, don't let us down.

In fairness the ECM 0z have been more amplified than the 12z, so everything crossed.

You have no idea how hacked off im going to be if its anything like its last 2 runs...surely the weight of gfs00z/Gefs/ukmo have to bear down..

Ps northerly..tight isobars...warmish north sea surely wont be dry!

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 One thing I meant to add to my post above regarding the severe gales the gfs is indicating, They are very much dependent on  the explosive cyclogenesis between T120 and T144 as the low moves into the North Sea, I would have thought this must remain a tad problematic although I have no logical meteorological reasoning for saying this.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Kudos to GFS if we get any cold shot in the period showing as it has been touting the idea for a good few days,  even in the face of  ridicule for it being in 10+ day range. 

It really is like a dog with a bone at times and that's why I lurvs it when it does find cold trends in Winter as I'm on the hunt for my 5th day of falling snow and a top up soon before its all disappeared.

Cmon ECM, last one to the party brings the ICE 

Good post. 

Yes the GFS has picked up the trend in the past weeks with the Northerlies once it latches on to something terrier like it doesn't want to let go. Phenomenal 18 and 00z runs though. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×