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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Member 3 having its own little ice age there - here's a chart from it, not implausible the way output is going!

gens-3-1-228.png

 

Are member 3 - come to daddy - I must use it as my avatar!  I  Iive just up the road from you!!

I have been here  waiting patiently for you:cold::cold::bomb: for 5 years.

MIdlands Ice Age

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

18z to 108 - polar air move advanced towards the UK, shortwave track in the atlantic slightly further south...

Its all a bit of a dilemna steve...while i wasnt keen on EC early doors i think it was better further down the line..better than GFS imho..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

Here goes the GFS developing the low again over the UK on 7 December.  It's 100 miles or so south of the 12z.

gfsnh-0-138.png?18

and better uppers at 144.  My area still lagging behind but a better run for those further west, looks less marginal at this point.

Edited by Ice Day
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Its so gutting that we are getting buried every single run on the 3rd best global model around D5-6 but the other models and met office text forecast just don't want to know.

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Stozzy Enthusiast

Stozzy

Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
Posted

Snow sweeping across the country at 138 . Low further south 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Compare last nights 18z and tonight's for next midweek and you can see this run is an upgrade with arctic air arriving quicker!:cold-emoji:

18_135_mslp850.png

18_132_mslp850.png

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its so gutting that we are getting buried every single run on the 3rd best global model around D5-6 but the other models and met office text forecast just don't want to know.

Give it time

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

As probably expected 18Z clears low away quicker, 12Z looked snowier for the west, 18Z more for east

gfs-0-144.png?18

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

The 18z shows 18 hours of snowfall for parts of Northern England and the Midlands at 132hrs out. Then a screaming northerly wow

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its so gutting that we are getting buried every single run on the 3rd best global model around D5-6 but the other models and met office text forecast just don't want to know.

5th best. JMA is currently 3rd, GEM 4th.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Wow even my location gets pasted on this run I'm under that big purple blob ?. Bank this run . BOOM . 

IMG_0702.PNG

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

As probably expected 18Z clears low away quicker, 12Z looked snowier for the west, 18Z more for east

gfs-0-144.png?18

Looks fabulous for many...inc you :)

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted (edited)

gfs 18z shifted the arrival of the cold 850s forward another 6 hours or so

gfs-2-138.png?18

Edited by andymusic
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Most of England gets in the fun at some point.....looking interesting to say the least!

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions Modele GFS - Carte prévisions Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 6 ...oh please be right GFS i will never poo poo you ever again...and i mean ever :)

Yes, please be right GFS, maybe better in a way the low is further away

hgt500-1000.png

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The 18z is a total snowfest, snow event followed by snow event!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

7th / 8th has been a consistent opportunity now for a few days, how cold/snowy and where is yet to be decided, but I’m utterly convinced somewhere is going to get a pasting! 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

gfs-9-186.png?18gfs-1-150.png?18

The delay to the Northerly gives the cold Arctic air mass time to gather.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)

Low Pressure into the Med is a good sign, it'll prevent the high from toppling. We seem to be very much in a rinse and repeat pattern at the moment

LP.thumb.png.d05671531ab4cbbd955a2e0e1b24b8ab.png

Edited by Danny*
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The angle of the jet at 192! Look like ptb 3 from earlier - very steep gradient

I take it this is what you're referring to Steve?  It doesn't get much steeper than this!

gfsnh-5-192.png?18

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