Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Ice Day]

Good lord.....storm the size of Western Europe coming in from the north.  Pub run doing what the pub run does best

[snowice]

8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Gawd not that old chestnut again. Odd it only ever gets trotted out if the output is not what someone wants or expects. Only in the winter in the chase for cold.

That's because the winter is why most of us are on here

[bluearmy]

Ec 46 beginning to look more and more with each run like weatherbells analog for the winter as far as Europe is concerned 

weak blocking over Greenland with the east USA  low height anomoly curving underneath across the Atlantic into nw Europe. the latest run keeps a low slp anomoly for the whole period whilst heights are never high but often on the low side. No cold upper anomalies until the back end of the run but a tweak here and there and this is a wintry pattern for us. 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 46 beginning to look more and more with each run like weatherbells analog for the winter as far as Europe is concerned 

weak blocking over Greenland with the east USA  low height anomoly curving underneath across the Atlantic into nw Europe. the latest run keeps a low slp anomoly for the whole period whilst heights are never high but often on the low side. No cold upper anomalies until the back end of the run but a tweak here and there and this is a wintry pattern for us. 

Interesting indeed. Really appreciate your updates BA. 

[SLEETY]

If this gfs run verified the highlands of Scotland would be reminiscent of Antarctica I would think ,given the amount of snow and strength of wind in this run .

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, snowice said:

That's because the winter is why most of us are on here

So those of us who are genuinely interested in meteorology and objective analysis needn't bother then. If you are not member of the 'club' you tend to get treated with contempt in this thread

[weirpig]

Well there is your stormy December incapsulated in one run. The gfs has I believe 3 depressions near us  all three will give somewhere some snow as they swoop from the north of us. All in all a encouraging run. Will it be like that on the 0z ? Does Donald trump eat halal 

[Man With Beard]

The GFS is being very persistent in pushing through this trough and allowing enough of a ridge for a cold plunge and back-edge snow event, sometime around 7th/8th December.

Its solution actually has a lot of support in the ECM ensembles.

Can I just add a note, too, about the sniping going on tonight. Stick to reporting the weather models guys. If you disagree with someone's assessment of the models, fine. You can stop the slanging matches that ruin the thread by not getting involved. Sorry mods I know it's your job not mine but I don't like seeing some of our most esteemed posters at each other's throats.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Man With Beard

[nick sussex]

Anyway moving on from BambiGate ! a good sign to see our common winter foe the Azores high displaced . And as long as you keep low heights over central Europe that keeps the door open for some wintry weather.

 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

2m temperature at my location is becoming mild but thereafter, the spread of possibilities is very high, temperatures ranging  below freezing to a balmy 15C! It may also become much wetter too with generally a low risk of snow throughout. 

[bobbydog]

well... there's that new warming again,  starting at +324 this time and growing...

so there it is, a potential warming, progressing in real time, not just stuck at +384 like some might claim....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Such a knife edge we are in as per usual is the conclusion. We just about manage to stay on the right side (cold side of the jet) through most of that run, with some impressive snow on that low which has been modelled twice on the trot. It's going to boil down to how the jet tilts and how much WAA can be advected into or just west of Greenland as I'll reiterate. The more that happens, the more available cold will be pumped out back south towards us. 

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

So those of us who are genuinely interested in meteorology and objective analysis needn't bother then. If you are not member of the 'club' you tend to get treated with contempt in this thread

Not at all but when the big 3 models are all over the place it's a subjective view that they are struggling to handle post +96 correctly. As long as everyone respects each other this thread will be fine! 

[Team Jo]

Christalive. Models. Please. Objective and Non emotional posts. Substantiate your comments. 

And don’t be unkind. If you take issue with a post then either report it or take it to PM. 

[bluearmy]

Lots of clusters on the eps - incidentally the op is in the smallest one (approx 10%). 

Uncertainty reigns. 

[Man With Beard]

As I suspected, plenty of support for the GFS D8 in the ECM clusters. And not much support for the ECM op!!

Looking further ahead, by D13 a strong trend towards deep troughing either close to the UK or just to its east. Which suggests more close shaves with northerly/easterly sourced weather (charts below show more likely to be NW or WNW), and even more nail-biting coming up.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Man With Beard

[weirpig]

Control. Northerly picking up momentum on the ensembles 

Edited November 30, 2017 by weirpig

[booferking]

Massive support from the ens on a northerly later next week with some proper greeny highs await 00z with interest not giving up just yet.

[weirpig]

There's the northerly plunge  central England 

Edited November 30, 2017 by weirpig

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Massive support from the ens on a northerly later next week with some proper greeny highs await 00z with interest not giving up just yet.

Who knows what the mornings runs will bring its still up in the air! 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Who knows what the mornings runs will bring its still up in the air! 

Just hope they'll be better than this morning's 00z runs. Anyway, first day of winter tomorrow. Love the atmosphere in here at this time of year,  hopefully more good times ahead for my fellow coldies!???

[Pembroke Dangler]

Couldn't resist a look at the models I was going to take a few days off due to the flip flopping, but iv noticed this past few days that the 00z runs seem to be showing warmer ensemble members the 06z slightly less warm members then the 12z a box of liquorice all sorts and then the pub run is showing the coldest members. It's like I can almost predict that tomorrow mornings run will be disappointing and by the time the pub run ends tomorrow we will be toasting a snowy nirvana. And all only 8 days away. It's crazy yet intriguing never the less but iv also noticed that the overall consensus is starting to point to a cold/mild uk north cold south not so much. 

[karlos1983]

That’s the best set of Ensembles I’ve seen for a few runs in terms of an organised downward trend in temps.

 

[weirpig]

Full ensembles. No real use only posted to get post count up. But it does show chilly temps 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That’s the best set of Ensembles I’ve seen for a few runs in terms of an organised downward trend in temps.

 

That's great news Karl...Amazing, it's the first day of winter tomorrow and it feels like we've been hunting for cold for ages already..exhausted but ready for the shiny new winter season..bring it on!