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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

:good:

npst30.png

Good to see the warming still showing up on the GFS

npst30.png

An improvement after a couple of runs that were slower and a little weaker with the warming & height rises into Canada.

Still uncertain whether it will be enough for the tropospheric response to place blocking high close enough to our NW, but I've seen ECM looking reasonably close to GFS for days 9-10, which offers some encouragement.

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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

As has been pointed out GFS 264 is a peach for those in the "middle". Way to far out to take seriously but deffo worth a chart upload :):):)

IMG_2908.thumb.PNG.48f52c065f355b12aaef994c69939657.PNG

Yeah' fully agree.

Absolutley no point getting hung-up on the battle ground scenario that far out!

Its a t-24hrs thing!

Thats if this evolution even playsout at all.

Gfs could go anywhere after 196...

Over to ecm 12z for 'perhaps' some clearer options.

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It always looks better on this chart just IMO.

Rtavn2161.gif

Edited by Snowyowl9
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15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Somewhere in Southern England does not lose the -0c isotherm once on GFS 12z from now all the way to the present frame T288 - that is quite something indicative of a prolonged cold spell with not much ease.

Hi Daniel

Did you mean the dam thickness? As you'd usually look at the 0°C isotherm heights (in the short term)

 

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1 minute ago, Singularity said:

npst30.png

An improvement after a couple of runs that were slower and a little weaker with the warming & height rises into Canada.

Still uncertain whether it will be enough for the tropospheric response to place blocking high close enough to our NW, but I've seen ECM looking reasonably close to GFS for days 9-10, which offers some encouragement.

I do wonder if we are indeed following the '62-'63 template strat wise as @bobbydog has pointed out? A minor warming early December, followed by a technical SSW in January.

Obviously, even if this was to be the case, there is no saying conditions on the ground will follow a similar template.

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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Hi Daniel

Did you mean the dam thickness? As you'd usually look at the 0°C isotherm heights (in the short term)

 

Hi Mapantz, did not word that well the T850 temps. :good:

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Control run highlights what can go wrong if things don't play ball upstream

gensnh-0-1-192.png

HP struggles to gain latitude sufficiently and the trough to the NE can not drop far enough S

Edited by CreweCold
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35 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

??

Its been flagging up ...

Via gfs last couple of days now!!!

Yesterdays 12z...)

23844591_1768957139812854_6613245166533457591_n.jpg

No idea why I posted that TI (and feb1991) - though it is varying run to run (ops inc ecm) and I guess it’s something we need to pin down as it could promote a west based neg NAO if it verifies too far west 

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Control run highlights what can go wrong if things don't play ball upstream

gensnh-0-1-192.png

HP struggles to gain latitude sufficiently and the trough to the NE can not drop far enough S

But it gets there in the end.:D

gensnh-0-1-252.png

gensnh-0-0-252.png

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A set up like this and we still can't get rid of those Mediterranean heights...

gensnh-0-1-252.png

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Control run highlights what can go wrong if things don't play ball upstream

gensnh-0-1-192.png

HP struggles to gain latitude sufficiently and the trough to the NE can not drop far enough S

And still manages to deliver a stonker!!

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And still manages to deliver a stonker!!

Not really a stonker Feb...would be much better if those Mediterranean heights could be erradicated

gensnh-0-1-276.png

The longevity would be increased ten fold if heights could just lower there and we could pull troughing further south. Residual heights over S Europe will be our undoing in the longer term if we can not get that HP far enough N in the shorter term. We don't want any residual heights left behind at a southerly latitude.

Edited by CreweCold
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In fact this is the best ensemble suite of the season so far, just hope it looks good in Graph form with some genuine flatliners (around -10c for a few days or more).

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Not really a stonker Feb...would be much better if those Mediterranean heights could be erradicated

gensnh-0-1-276.png

The longevity would be increased ten fold if heights could just lower there and we could pull troughing further south

Its a right dumping for large swathes of the country with no sign of high ssinking - in fact you would grab it with both hands - you get buried!

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a right dumping for large swathes of the country with no sign of high ssinking - in fact you would grab it with both hands - you get buried!

Haha

Would take something very special to get buried with snow here. Most I've ever seen lay is 10cm!

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The high amplitude pattern forecast for North America could well see a fair bit of energy tracking south of the cold trough under the Greenland ridge :shok:

gfs_uv250_nh_45.thumb.png.d2b11a9141beae0b5a757ad5d1c9bffd.png

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Haha

Would take something very special to get buried with snow here. Most I've ever seen lay is 10cm!

I really am beginning to feel a Dec 1990 event coming on here, I know its a long way off but.......

Meanwhile we have an ensemble mean showing a stationary 3 wave pattern deep into FI - oh and we're on the right side of it as well!!!

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Haha

Would take something very special to get buried with snow here. Most I've ever seen lay is 10cm!

I bet you only got that by adding all the last 5-years' accumulations together!:D

PS: Frosty's not alone in having used up all his 'reactions'...shut up, lassie!:D

Edited by Ed Stone

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I bet you only got that by adding all the last 5-years' accumulations together!:D

I wouldn't even get that much if I did that!

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Getting interested now in next weeks potential northerly, just hope no shifts east on ECM, as it is still FI, and at T252, 19th Nov 96 style low, but Tuesday 5th Dec, just hope we get the initial northerly

h850t850eu.png

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Good to see the UKMO dropping it’s underwhelmimg output and after the shortwave frenzy this morning the mists are beginning to clear slowly.

However we’re not there yet and so my Code Red remains!

Its not so much that we won’t see some build of pressure near Greenland but getting that clean northerly flow south is still subject to shortwaves upstream behaving .

Overall so far this evening an upward trend for coldies.

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