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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The USA trough on the 12z gfs has sprung up from nowhere into T200 ......

sort of makes the remainder of the run a bit redundant post day 10 (isn’t it always though!)

Indeed, FI is FI. So long as we have the ridge nailed so too is the cold. Everything else will be a variation in longevity and detail.

That said once the ensemble suits are on board, then longer term prospects should become more apparent as any coherent  FI signal will emerge once the mid range scatter has been eliminated.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cracking run for the north west of Briain this- plenty of snow showers on a bitter North westerly :)

 

Brilliant mate, wish it was t24.

gfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.f6deb2ec7111ad27062a9720cb84b110.pnggfsnh-1-222.thumb.png.942964dfdbd4587ee7e5bdd622f087e1.pnggfsnh-2-222.thumb.png.07f80ba18a630d70b1e3eda7af4c717c.png

 

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The USA trough on the 12z gfs has sprung up from nowhere into T200 ......

sort of makes the remainder of the run a bit redundant post day 10 (isn’t it always though!)

??

Its been flagging up ...

Via gfs last couple of days now!!!

Yesterdays 12z...)

23844591_1768957139812854_6613245166533457591_n.jpg

Edited by tight isobar

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As great as it looks on the face of it, it could have done better had the trough dug further south. We saw corrections toward more progress into Europe with the coming week's spell so yes, I dare to imagine even greater charts :shok:.

For entertainment purposes, I wonder if GFS will manage to split away a low from the mid-Atlantic and feed that into the base of a trough for a nice snowstorm, rather than massively inflate a rounded trough to the SW that turns things around unreasonably? 

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3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Cold uppers getting down south

gfs-1-228.png?12

Chart of the evening so far!

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I can't give any more points as I'm empty:D..going to enjoy this weeks opening salvo cold snap and if the Gfs 12z is right, i'm going to really enjoy next week's even more potent arctic spell..Great to see the ukmo hop on-board..at last!:santa-emoji::cold:☺😉

12_195_mslp850.png

12_195_ukthickness850.png

12_219_ukthickness850.png

12_219_uk2mtmp.png

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GEM loses the coldest air later this week and never really manages to get in back for the rest of it's run

gem-1-126.thumb.png.f304a2436399b64af8a525c9efd0099b.pnggem-1-150.thumb.png.869f37c87f845f3c853935a622f74582.pnggem-1-198.thumb.png.ff9a0969db1ab788075fae7ab3314749.png

gem-1-222.thumb.png.12a7234d849918a033777f6090f86541.pnggem-1-240.thumb.png.4c07eccf2f10ef9396eeeb364252b738.png

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ISouthern parts of England on the Northern flank of that low about to get a right blasting!

gfsnh-0-252_ksp7.png

 

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Great start this evening from the gfs and glad to see the ukmo has smelt the coffee. Let’s hope we can see some cross model agreement tonight with ecm. Looks cold this week with wintry showers. Then slightly less cold into the weekend. Then if the models are correct a potent northerly feed into next week. With plenty of snow showers moving down the country. :cold::cold:

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Big snow storm on northern flank . Sadly probably won't be there on the next run 

IMG_1817.PNG

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gfsnh-0-276.png?12
So it did both the low splitting off and the blowing up low to the SW... funny.

I see GEM continues not to cut-off the low and then, well, I would talk about it but :bad:.

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM loses the coldest air later this week and never really manages to get in back for the rest of it's run

gem-1-126.thumb.png.f304a2436399b64af8a525c9efd0099b.pnggem-1-150.thumb.png.869f37c87f845f3c853935a622f74582.pnggem-1-198.thumb.png.ff9a0969db1ab788075fae7ab3314749.png

gem-1-222.thumb.png.12a7234d849918a033777f6090f86541.pnggem-1-240.thumb.png.4c07eccf2f10ef9396eeeb364252b738.png

GEM is one of the last models us coldies resort to in a fading cold spell, seems like the role is reversed! :D

Fantastic stuff, will post my thoughts after the 12z ECM.

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Somewhere in Southern England does not lose the -0c isotherm once on GFS 12z from now all the way to the present frame T288 - that is quite something indicative of a prolonged cold spell with not much ease.

Edited by Daniel*
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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

And here it is!!

prectypeuktopo.png

Yep, a thoroughly wet day down here. High just a little to far west on this run toward the back end, but who cares back there, won't happen anyway.

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1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

Just for fun but illustrates why a solid Greenland high trumps a ridge everytime.The jet energy all goes south.Low pressure underneath pushing against the cold over the UK.Classic battleground from a channel low,a rare beat these days.

Yes, I reckon it goes for any HLB, you need the initial high to be far enough North, I don't like scandi highs to Near to the North of Scotland - otherwise it supresses PPN, you ideally in any setup want shortwaves / small lows running into frigid air.

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All we need now is 'verification' from the BOM, Arpege and NOGAPS models?:fool:

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Well the cold week starts here !! Hopefully a brief milder (not mild) weekend and then an even stronger colder pulse from Greenland- i honestly think this is one of the best runs for the NW of England - moreso for the hills who would get pummelled for a good day or two with heavy snow showers :)

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As has been pointed out GFS 264 is a peach for those in the "middle". Way to far out to take seriously but deffo worth a chart upload :):):)

IMG_2908.thumb.PNG.48f52c065f355b12aaef994c69939657.PNG

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

:good:

npst30.png

Good to see the warming still showing up on the GFS

Looks like it has another SSW on this run too around similar time frame, a sizeable warming right at the top of the strat near the end too!

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