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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup it doesn't quite work out later on with the Atlantic looking like it may wake up again

image.thumb.png.428fa9e8d4fd916db07ef03673665ca6.png

Though it's all fine margins and it could easily change for the better. I hope that deep low hangs back over NE Canada so we don't have energy spilled into the North Atlantic.

It wouldn't surprise me if we got another northerly reload... they seem to occur every week at some point now :D

Yep, problem is with 18z is that the Euro trough to our east doesn't collapse, rather retains cold core over NE Europe which inevitably merges with trop PV low heights edging east form Canada.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
28 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Good 18z so far, shame about that mild sector on Wednesday but it quickly turns cold again on Thursday, maybe an easier path to Scandi later for the Azores high?

image.thumb.png.d20a518dcc9f72dcd09a6c13cb27a94c.png

If we get a slack flow developing with an incoming ridge this run could turn very cold.

Problem is that is not a genuine high over Greenland, more due to the intense surface cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

As per usual, the pub run goes it's own merry way. Hope it is wrong in the short, medium and long term. It generally is :)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I suspect this that I posted in the Met O thread is what is going to be the major influence in UK weather for a while to come

The upper air pattern showing on the various anomaly charts generally have pointed to a less meridional flow for a day or two. However, the source of the air, at 500 mb, is from a fairly high latitude, Alaska and over the Gt Lakes and on in to the UK which, on average, is not a mild airflow. From their 70:30 cold and mild for the south which seemed, to me, about right with that meridional flow, I would say more like a 50:50 for the south and maybe 60:40 for more cold than mild the further north one lives. That in the 6-10 day outlook and possibly out to 2 weeks. Beyond that then best ask Mystic Meg!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Disappointing to see the nudge south I hoped this jiggling had stopped by now. Otherwise not a too bad run.

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Problem is that is not a genuine high over Greenland, more due to the intense surface cold.

John, for the years on this forum I've been puzzled about the difference between 'surface' And, erm, 'real' high for want of a better word and I still don't know. 

 

Furthermore,  how do you tell the difference from a chart like that? 

 

Assistance gratefully received from a bit so newbie....!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
  9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Problem is that is not a genuine high over Greenland, more due to the intense surface cold.

image.thumb.png.0cdbb3c568f4e0be63008735b8ff283c.pngimage.thumb.png.d7ed6a91003c413da0a5cc01398b1240.png 

Yup seems to be a recurring theme in the last month or so, here are two instances from later this November for example. It probably explains why we keep getting northerly reloads rather then a persistent high in that region. To sustain heights over Greenland there often needs to be a 'warm based high'.

Though a cold based Greenland high would still be useful next week, just to hold the Polar Vortex back a bit... and then get some high pressure building towards Scandi if the jet fires back up. :)

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I suspect this that I posted in the Met O thread is what is going to be the major influence in UK weather for a while to come

The upper air pattern showing on the various anomaly charts generally have pointed to a less meridional flow for a day or two. However, the source of the air, at 500 mb, is from a fairly high latitude, Alaska and over the Gt Lakes and on in to the UK which, on average, is not a mild airflow. From their 70:30 cold and mild for the south which seemed, to me, about right with that meridional flow, I would say more like a 50:50 for the south and maybe 60:40 for more cold than mild the further north one lives. That in the 6-10 day outlook and possibly out to 2 weeks. Beyond that then best ask Mystic Meg!

Depends if you mean a degree or so below average or genuine cold, the runs the last 2 days have trended towards mild and wetter until right into FI when there is signals around 13-15d range of faux cold with a ridge then possibly into scandi, giving an Easterly down the line but even that scenario looks a bit too weak now, got a feeling the 16-30 will change to zonal tomorrow right the way out into January.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
2 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

John, for the years on this forum I've been puzzled about the difference between 'surface' And, erm, 'real' high for want of a better word and I still don't know. 

 

Furthermore,  how do you tell the difference from a chart like that? 

 

Assistance gratefully received from a bit so newbie....!

A surface high allows low pressures to trundle through while a proper Greenland high provides a block.

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

A surface high allows low pressures to trundle through while a proper Greenland high provides a block.

Thank you very much but:

A) how, meteorologically is that different from a full High and

B) how do you spot it from the charts?

Again, offers gratefully received! 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:

Thank you very much but:

A) how, meteorologically is that different from a full High and

B) how do you spot it from the charts?

Again, offers gratefully received! 

True greenland high will generally be coloured orange on the nhp

Greenland has a semi permanent high with altitude ete

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
2 hours ago, Devonshire said:

Would you be kind enough  to say why?

Intense developing low bumping into cold air in-situ up from Biscay and briefly affecting Northern France as well. Almost your old-style Channel Low. Granted, it's still some way off at +48 hours and cold rain is forecast for a number of locations as well. A case of watch, wait and see and all this after the first feature comes through, tomorrow night.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

Let’s face it everyone can post all the different high resolution models but this is one of those situations where its a look out the window to see what’s falling moments....long term i am far more interested in what is going to transpire as we enter winter proper and I believe like others that is blocking to the NE :)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Apparently so...

updated NMM

IMG_2224.thumb.PNG.5f99033cf2c22c77b508f93e917e4f09.PNGIMG_2223.thumb.PNG.48227a5f911d172054e9b0ab5d981fa1.PNG

 

I wonder if the 18z higher resolution models are as anebriated, ehhhhem! I mean as unreliable as the gfs pub run? :) We will see in the morning I guess. 

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Let’s face it everyone can post all the different high resolution models but this is one of those situations where its a look out the window to see what’s falling moments....long term i am far more interested in what is going to transpire as we enter winter proper and I believe like others that is blocking to the NE :)

I agree but this is the Model discussion thread after all :D haha

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Let’s face it everyone can post all the different high resolution models but this is one of those situations where its a look out the window to see what’s falling moments....long term i am far more interested in what is going to transpire as we enter winter proper and I believe like others that is blocking to the NE :)

Best post of the day :)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Never seen this model before. How reliable is it? 

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