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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Ukmo making looks much better than it's earlier runs making less of the Atlantic low and pushes it further South and not as deep so more of a clean route for the Azores to ridge right up to Greenland and very close to the gfs for the same time. Great run and gfs gets one over on the ukmo who'd have thought it :yahoo:

IMG_4181.GIF

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Need to see some ridging soon on GFS 12z or that high is going to sink...

Great news ukmo has backed off :)

I cant see it sinking, it hasn't got anywhere to go surely ?

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

I cant see it sinking, it hasn't got anywhere to go surely ?

No its not going to sink but the problem is it is further East and the ensemble means have been advertising this recently, it could be that it supresses precipitation and doesn't allow for any wave development to bring us snow.

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Now it appears the ukmo has got on board with the GFS.... has the MetO just torpedoed it’s own winter forecast? Lol

now that IS wishful thinking lol

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4 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Ukmo making looks much better than it's earlier runs making less of the Atlantic low and pushes it further South and not as deep so more of a clean route for the Azores to ridge right up to Greenland and very close to the gfs for the same time. Great run and gfs gets one over on the ukmo who'd have thought it :yahoo:

IMG_4181.GIF

The big 3 are like squabbling siblings, watch the ECM throw a spanner in the works now instead of agreeing.

 

A second Northerly shot next week is now the form horse 😎

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You should know the saying by now, get the cold in, then worry about the snow.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No its not going to sink but the problem is it is further East and the ensemble means have been advertising this recently, it could be that it supresses precipitation and doesn't allow for any wave development to bring us snow.

hmmm i see your point, but plenty of water to go under the bridge yet to worry to much. Big step forward so far, now watch the ECM go Belly up :nonono:

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GEM the last model to play spoiler but I think we would all go fro UKMO,GFS and ECM V GEM right?

gemnh-0-144.png?12

As for this afternoons UKMO 144, we could argue it is actually better than GFS. Certainly the trough is sharper and so the Northerly would be quicker and cleaner than GFS, it just needed to be a little better upstream to go to a 9/10 from an 8/10 :D

UN144-21.GIF?27-17gfsnh-0-144.png

 

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If we can get the low in the Atlantic to link up with the shortwave coming down from the north of the uk we could then lock in the high to our north and possible get the famous mur sausage.

tom 

AA3EDF82-1C2B-458C-8368-61B64C9013D7.png

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Nice to see that little low being modelled so far south, could be a good thing for this run!

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.d9ab69930ea292c1bb77b67225bb4554.png

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No its not going to sink but the problem is it is further East and the ensemble means have been advertising this recently, it could be that it supresses precipitation and doesn't allow for any wave development to bring us snow.

Looks spot on to me incoming in the next few frames should unleash the Northerly beast.:cold:

gfsnh-0-192.png

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UKMO 12z: F-fudging-finally! :laugh:

npsh500.png npsh500.png

GFS: The usual shortwave low sneaking through. Seems to be standard fayre when blocking is becoming or trying to become established to our NW. The blocking itself is better on this run as there's less residual low heights over Canada interfering with it - but still enough to stop it going west-based as well :good:. Fine balance!

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

I'm liking the direction the 12Z GFS is going in FI range....

gfsnh-0-198.png?12

Could be a boom chart next wait for it .......

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We are still doing just fine though on the GFS - no longitudinal change now on the Northerly outbreak from now on please - this will do us proud, particularly no further East, and not very much further west.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The USA trough on the 12z gfs has sprung up from nowhere into T200 ......

sort of makes the remainder of the run a bit redundant post day 10 (isn’t it always though!)

Edited by bluearmy

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Cracking run for the north west of Briain this- plenty of snow showers on a bitter North westerly :)

 

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A good start to the early evening runs and finally an improvement from the UKMO.

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.3ac108f6edc56b553be3eb6da91d5ae9.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.4df8ff0fc1f0aef08e4fb94da7982a90.GIF  144ECM Full house???

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The USA trough on the 12z gfs has sprung up from nowhere into T200 ......

sort of makes the remainder of the run a bit redundant post day 10 (isn’t it always though!)

To be fair there was a trough on the last run that was even further south into central USA although weaker and less likely to be of influence on the overall pattern admittedly. its was more of a cut off surface low tbh.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Nice to see the UKMO bring in a correction to its model. Certainly an upgrade for renewed cold prospects . Gone are the upper heights over the Azores. Gone is the northern extension of the Atlantic trough. Back comes retrogression of the High. Back comes the NW/SE alignment of the upper Atlantic trough.  Here comes the prospect of a true Arctic feed in the outlook period with a more potent cold wave.

 C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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