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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

A little pool of positive 850hpa uppers for the UK.

gfs-1-144.png

That will please sidney:santa-emoji:

This 6z looks better upstream..getting busier already!???

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-156.png?6vSgfs-0-162.png

Night and day around Greenland.

The Difference is Stark.  Models really ARE all over the place  and whatever outcome this or any of the other models produce today    certainly wont prove anything for next week   

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

I strongly believe the ecm and gfs are just finding the solution that ukmo had 24 hrs ago.

now ukmo has improved so will gfs and ecm.

prob hoping more than anything else

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Having seen the 00z UKMO with the what I like to call 'circumstantial' cut-throat secondary low missing the train (i.e. jet stream), I felt it was wise to reserve judgement on the situation.

The 06z GFS is doing a good job of recreating that UKMO run.

hgt300.png hgt300.png
The jet stream is flatter west of Greenland and this is an occasion where that's better than it waving about, as it means the tail is not there for the secondary low to grab onto.

It's a seriously small adjustment that has considerable implications going forward, hence 'circumstantial' which is essentially what I use to cover occasions where chaos theory makes itself even more apparent than usual. 

This could still go either way so it'll be hard to relax today if you're keen on that second round of northerly potential.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

You just knew after the downbeat tone in here this morning that the 6z was going to hand out an olive branch, it's honestly like the computers that run these programs troll us!

If we can get to this starting point I'll be happy.

IMG_8537.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Cant for some reason post snaps.

However there is a world of difference ooz/6z compare even by this stage..

Much less off a mess..

And much cleaner/defined...

Highlighting yesterdays runs MAY' have indeed been a blip!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

When will people  learn?......no one can predict the weather with a measure of accuracy beyond a few days, model outputs are totally reliant on the initial data entered, the slightest variance in the initial data is magnified exponentially the further into the future the output shown. so to 'throw the towel' in for any kind of future weather pattern is just plain daft and illogical.............it seems to be a unique trait in here for things to get written off days and sometimes weeks before their 'birthing'........bottom line is model outputs will ebb and flow over the next few days, what is forecasted on one run could and probably will change by the next output run, FI is called FI for a reason, the chances of verification are very low, using tea leaves and noting seagull behaviour is probably just as accurate!..........I have full respect for those who attempt LRF's and extrapolating FI data, it takes a lot of knowledge, far more than me....I just don't buy into the results, don't get too hung up in outputs post T144 as it probably won't happen

Is that an LRF aj? :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
21 minutes ago, shaky said:

You just couldnt make this up!!the gfs is now slightly more amplified at 114 hours!!man this is draining me out?

Yes and its Autumn wait till the real fun starts in winter :aggressive:

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

I'm guessing GFS will be back in the good books with this morning's output. Already outside of the reliable TBH but just look at this cold air descending. 

gfs-0-186.png

gfs-1-186.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Is that an LRF aj? :rofl:

lol....yes...so it won't happen :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

Been snowing in Oslo for the last 12 hours now (fourth snow event in the last 2 weeks), but just like Nick S I cannot keep my eyes off the UKs prospects!

6z certainly upping the stakes again, this is a remarkably close situation.

 

gfs-0-180_sqa2.png

6z is similar to but also an improvement on the UKMO 168 chart.. A lot resting on the 12zs (...again..)

 

Screen Shot 2017-11-28 at 11.21.32.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Atlantic front pushing in from the southwest, cold air spilling down from the north....could be nice for someone!

gfs-0-186.png?6

Still the high pressure over Iberia though

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Chalk and cheese spring to mind. Just goes to show the risks of taking run to run variance of longer range output as gospel.

gfs-1-198.png

gfs-1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Atlantic front pushing in from the southwest, cold air spilling down from the north....could be nice for someone!

gfs-0-186.png?6

Is the Atlantic low going under? If it does there will be one heck of a snowy D10

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The feed is back on..

Alignment allowing good penertration of 850s...

 

gfsnh-1-198.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Another run from GFS and this time wants to lock the British Isles in a wedge of frigid air at t192.  Great chart watching, ups and downs continue, but seems the block is not going without a fight with Atlantic upper winds weak in most sectors.

C

GFSOPEU06_192_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

See, chocolate fireguard , back comes the cold!! Need another run and ECM support this evening to even think about it being reality 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Just goes to show you that the output at present is back and forth from run to run so nothing is set in stone!

 

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