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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=2

i know  its a long way off in f1 but the last trame  is suggesting deep heavy snow  on dec  14 for  the  uk !!

gfs-2-384.png

Edited by tinybill
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Not a good start to the day from the GFS if you are a cold fan,Will find out soon what the ECM Makes of it all.

Has anyone seen the UKMO Run this Morning?

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Not a good start to the day from the GFS if you are a cold fan,Will find out soon what the ECM Makes of it all.

Has anyone seen the UKMO Run this Morning?

C.S

UN144-21.GIF?28-05

 

Seems much better than GFS, with much more retrogression of the high 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Not a good start to the day from the GFS if you are a cold fan,Will find out soon what the ECM Makes of it all.

Has anyone seen the UKMO Run this Morning?

C.S

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.thumb.gif.7343e16d68ddcdfc880746655371a48d.gifGZ_D5_PN_144_0000.thumb.gif.3bdbed4f234555ee403339ececae0bdd.gif

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Not a good start to the day from the GFS if you are a cold fan,Will find out soon what the ECM Makes of it all.

Has anyone seen the UKMO Run this Morning?

C.S

Ukmo looks ok with the high looking like moving north west at 144 hrs

 

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Don’t think the gfs and ukmo are too bad this morning we are sat under high pressure so cold and frosty is the form horse.yes it’s not everyone’s holy grail which is snow. But certainly will be seasonal:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: The Fens. 25 asl
  • Location: The Fens. 25 asl

Well we get the cold in which is the first part of the battle and different to the last few years....

I imagine the models will throw out a fair few solutions over the next day or so! 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Id agree not to bad

Ecm big change tho from yesterday.looks very gfs at 144 hrs

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, booferking said:

So the northerly is well and truly dropped for 5-6Dec back to chasing charts in the FI

Yep high sitting over uk at 168 hrs.anybodys guess where this is going tbh

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yep high sitting over uk at 168 hrs.anybodys guess where this is going tbh

I now know what it felt like for you bouncing lot in the derby. Model equivalent.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
50 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

GFS paints a familiar picture. High pressure over western Europe with cold shot pushed to east/south east.

gfs-0-186.png

ECM0-168.thumb.gif.34dfaaea86ac56e2ed60d60a98f74a1f.gif

You could say Europe in the freezer incredible cold to our north.

Does this mean the jet is going to intensify and become flat or will heights settle over the UK.

I reckon the latter so dry cool sunny frost and fog.

But not great for high latitude blocking.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Wow what a change 24 hours makes!!gone are the tasty charts and here come the euro heights again!!i take them for now as long as they far enough north to give us cold and frosty weather but if u wana see even a snowflake make the most of this week guys!!!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Yep,back to Euro heights again.Never a good sign if your after cold weather .

Ecm is a shocker compared to what it was showing just couple days ago.

What a turnaround.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Got to laugh really.

All those eps showing euro low anomalies - 00z runs now shows euro heights galore...

Its our friend Atlantic energy scuppering things yet again- think we will be seeing a dramatic u-turn on the meto update today, northerly looks dead in the water :(

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

so the accelerated northerly plunge for early December which suddenly appeared during the weekend has disappeared!  Some kudos for GEM here because it picked its demise before it got within range of ukmo which is also a winner on this evolution.  We still don't know how any transition to the next amplification off the e seaboard will pan out and the six clusters on the eps yesterday tell their own story. Got a coin anyone ?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

so the accelerated northerly plunge for early December which suddenly appeared during the weekend has disappeared!  Some kudos for GEM here because it picked its demise before it got within range of ukmo which is also a winner on this evolution.  We still don't know how any transition to the next amplification off the e seaboard will pan out and the six clusters on the eps yesterday tell their own story. Got a coin anyone ?

Feels like there could be 99.9% of clusters showing a northerly and 0.1% showing a euro high +NAO and i know where my money would be !!!!

O well, we wait to see, gfs00z ends well at 384 hrs :D

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Quite surprisingly, leaving aside the fine detail, the ecm is not a million miles from the gfs. Even by T192 the analysis is in the same ball park with the high pressure centred to the south east with the UK in it's NW quadrant with the twin troughs to the NE/SW  Thus continuing dry with temps around average until the trough to the west becomes more organized and begins to make inroads.At this end of the run this is, as always, subject to revision.

These evolution's do to some extent support last night's anomalies with the weakening of the ridging north west into Greenland before the transition in the later period and more amplification upstream in North America

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.414b1f4534087afc4099864fe9728b1a.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.afa0a8ed61fe4959aee4a5c1f0b062ac.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.1617b2a126310f3e8b9d9a59fc8b820a.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Well, the longer range model outputs have failed miserably with the Atlantic ridge failing to get anywhere far enough North West.  The lack of a proper Greenland high is one issue. 

All those tasty above average Greenland high anomaly charts just not high enough. 

The first two attempts at a Northerly have failed and we're now looking to around the week of the 10th for our next shot.

It all looks very last year despite the difference in the solar output, QBO etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Well, the longer range model outputs have failed miserably with the Atlantic ridge failing to get anywhere far enough North West.  The lack of a proper Greenland high is one issue. 

All those tasty above average Greenland high anomaly charts just not high enough. 

The first two attempts at a Northerly have failed and we're now looking to around the week of the 10th for our next shot.

It all looks very last year despite the difference in the solar output, QBO etc.

Have to agree with this 100 percent i see know way back enjoy the Northerly this week as it is rapidly going down hill.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
2 hours ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

In undoubtedly the opposition as now, it's usually best not to look at the model a little bit, because it takes time for models to be strengthened when the model changes. Today, as one of these days, where the models have never been shown to be different from that time yesterday, but perhaps the move of more energy could be shifted to the south jet's arm, and the opportunity of a greater the GFS continent says that he is usually interested in feeding the north arm.Sound is like a striped record, but the key force is the tallest, and where he decides his position, because it's a characteristic there is an impact on the magnitude we can see, and therefore the high SE (perhaps very temporarily) or model action is (stay on the gentle side of the polar jet) or the west (we put on the side of the frost in the jet), the ECM suggests the final situation, GFS and the extreme situation, the older models, the first scenario, the possible SE sink, the page that is shorter and less ... more tugnaw in the following, it might be a return here and now.

Run that by me again ?

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