Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Met4Cast]

Atlantic - Dead

Polar Vortex - Where? Can't see it 

Yet, the UK sits under a flabby high, upstream looks favourable for retrogression, perhaps the pattern is just a little more delayed than what the models were previously expecting.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

That looks more wet than snowy to me, there's no hashed lines on that chart or the zoomed in, higher resolution chart

 

Well, that is what this run suggests. I am very baffled by that the parameters on offer there should allow snowfall even for at least the high ground. Dew points are below freezing.

[Methuselah]

Talk about 'being in suspenders'...should I take my teddy to bed, or should I opt for the cutthroat razor?

[bluearmy]

Post the two week period and a few days, ec 46 says mobility returns with heights also rising to the south. Eastern side of the states looks cold throughout December - that will make joe b happy. He had both the e states and Europe cold. Looks like he may get it half right if ec46 is right! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Certainly potentially foggy in the south, if cloud can clear, maybe low temps, need that low to stay away, WSW of us, or we're mild

[snowbob]

So it’s gone from best charts some members have ever seen, just 24 hrs ago.

To worry and panic now.

sit back relax and enjoy.

we normally sit through wasted weeks and months of absolute garbage this time of year on the cold hunt.

This week model watching has been amazing and I for one have enjoyed each and every post.

still believe that this flip flop of ukmo against ecm and gfs means we’re onto a memorable spell of weather.

just saying

[tight isobar]

The eastern seaboard shortwaves really acting up now.

Its a blocked atlantic-given-..

But these features begining to  do some big damage for the ridge flow to the north!!!

Cold hp becoming the form...

Lets hope the next chapter can resolve better...

See where the rest -run goes?

Edited November 27, 2017 by tight isobar

[Dean E]

Although uppers will be a tad higher, surface cold will still be in situ away from Westward facing coasts.

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, snowbob said:

So it’s gone from best charts some members have ever seen, just 24 hrs ago.

To worry and panic now.

sit back relax and enjoy.

we normally sit through wasted weeks and months of absolute garbage this time of year on the cold hunt.

This week model watching has been amazing and I for one have enjoyed each and every post.

still believe that this flip flop of ukmo against ecm and gfs means we’re onto a memorable spell of weather.

just saying

totally agree about the all over the shop models - signs something is afoot

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Post the two week period and a few days, ec 46 says mobility returns with heights also rising to the south. Eastern side of the states looks cold throughout December - that will make joe b happy. He had both the e states and Europe cold. Looks like he may get it half right if ec46 is right! 

That model was complete trash last winter. Like most medium to long term models. Hope its the same this winter! Although sod's law means it is probably spot on this time round.

Edited November 27, 2017 by MattStoke

[Had Worse]

Do we have a lack of data in a key area that is open to interpretation?

[nick sussex]

Its painful to watch. A battle between the bloated blob to the south the cold to the north and whether that vile  shortwave will detach head east and cut itself off from upstream energy.

The blob to the south needs to do one pronto, so that's it the outputs are determined to wring every last bit of drama out of this. What a surprise, I should know better its been the same thing for years!

[karlos1983]

Well to me this just looks very similar to the ECM. So I’m not concerned. Evolving pattern. 

[Team Jo]

Folks. Let’s be Nice eh? There’s a significant undertone of sniping and stroppiness tonight that is really against what we’re all about here. It’s nobodys fault the models aren’t showing what they were last night. Statistical diagrams of predicted conditions don’t care about your feelings. Please, PLEASE try and think about your post before hitting reply. Overly emotive and snippy and overly reactive on One day’s runs and the infinitesimal dissection of one sodding ‘shortwave’s’ position is wearing a bit thin. I genuinely get the excitement and disappointment that comes with the rollercoaster that is model watching, but let’s just be considerate to one another.

[Frosty.]

The 18z is certainly trying..very trying actually!

 

[Derecho]

Awesome mid range GFS, if you live in Lerwick 

Someone needs to pour salt on that Euroslug .

[karlos1983]

Just now, Frosty. said:

The 18z is certainly trying..very trying actually!

 

Lol frosty, it’s all very trying mate 

still could be worse eh. We shall stay positive 

[Met4Cast]

Possibly the most frustrating chart of the season.

Massive cold pooling to the North and East of us, only a shortwave standing in our way of tapping into it.

[Dean E]

Again 18z GFS similar to the 12z ECM in the medium range, GFS appears to be ramping up the Atlantic. So default GFS post 198hr possibly overpowering that Atlantic Low.

Also Heights in the Med causing all sorts of issues.

Clearly something is happening that the models have clutched onto, whatever it is I think it could be something more 'prominent' 

[cyclonic happiness]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Lol frosty, it’s all very trying mate 

still could be worse eh. We shall stay positive 

Well, if it's going to be mild rather than cold, let's head for record breaking mild instead shall we? 

Seriously though, I can take anything seriously more than 5 days out, it's been literally all over the place

[pyrotech]

Mjo going into phase 4 not helping here, Negative NAO but with the lag the MJo wants everything to start moving Eastwards. 

the outcome will be very interesting as it effects where the high will be and so the Jetstream. 

This weekend we see the Jet try to move North for a time, before diving back down over the Uk Early next week, If we can keep the effects of negative NAO for few more days we may get rewarded.

 

 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Possibly the most frustrating chart of the season.

Massive cold pooling to the North and East of us, only a shortwave standing in our way of tapping into it.

That could move SW by 150 miles and cover most of us. Give it time.

[MKN]

To many people caught up in model outputs past 96+ hours lately by the looks of it. Inside that there has yet to be any possibility of snowfall for low lying areas barring snow showers for the fortunate few. Going forward that does not look like changing imo.

[Daniel*]

Deep breaths folks, it’s just something we have no control over apart from our senses.

I was a little disheartened looking at 12z EC ENS mean while GFS 18z advertises the potential for another cold day of the more cyclonic kind, with significant snow potential for the SE on Friday forgive my terrible French. EC mean cuts off the cold flow by Friday. Hoping, for a better morning the first real jolt. 

[karlos1983]

@cyclonic happiness yes, it’s been like pulling teeth last past few days. I think I need a break, been a long autumn chasing winter charts