Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That Ec means is a major backtrack.

Need a swing back tomorrow or i think its fair to say the northerly is in serious jeapordy..

At least this week's Northerly is safely in the bag..back of the net..in off the red..etc.  .can't take this away from us! 

Ukmo is finally on-board..rejoice

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, snowking said:

Crewe - the strat action shown at the moment is Wave 1 driven, most likely a result of the Pacific/Aleutian low forecast to set up residence in that part of the world in Week 2 - this synoptic setup drives wave flux up into the stratosphere and gives us the Wave 1 push as shown by Tony just up the page 

This has been fairly consistently modelled in recent days and remains so today. So tropospherically I agree that without the Greenland forcing we see less short term forcing on the tropospheric vortex. But in terms of interest above, I'm not so sure that we will lose the interest just yet even after the 12z suites 

Hi SK-

You undoubtedly have superior knowledge to me on the subject. Completely take on board what you are saying but I remain very dubious of what happens without the Greenland forcing.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Frosty. said:

At least this week's Northerly is safely in the bag..back of the net..in off the red..etc.  .can't take this away from us! 

Ukmo is finally on-board..rejoice

Yes Karl UKMO is really good at 144 tonight - EC not as good...guess its just standard too-ing and fro-ing..

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Karl UKMO is really good at 144 tonight - EC not as good...guess its just standard too-ing and fro-ing..

Yep, no need to hit the panic button..it's still autumn

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

You clearly don't understand the nature of the atmosphere and how it works then?

It happened last year- the trop led pattern collapsed due to a failed WAA attempt at Greenland and let the upper westerlies descend with an increase in the zonal winds. So yes, it's entirely plausible that this episode could determine where we head through December. 

Remember, we're in a trop led pattern trying to hold off coupling with the upper strat until we can trigger at least some warming. As soon as the trop led pattern collapses (too soon) then you've let the mean westerlies in and the trop vortex winds itself up.

well... the blocking 'failed' in 1962...

we all know what happened a week later...

[nick sussex]

MJO on the move in the GEFS probably helped by the weakening La Niña signal.

The 3.4 region has shown a warming in recent weeks . 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Karl UKMO is really good at 144 tonight - EC not as good...guess its just standard too-ing and fro-ing..

Yep standard model flux. Fergie on twitter stated blocked and cold uptill the 15th  maybe even longer  however after that ec run I'm sure he will change his mind  to be honest for me the model watching is nearly as good as getting the cold snowy weather. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

MJO on the move in the GEFS probably helped by the weakening La Niña signal.

The 3.4 region has shown a warming in recent weeks . 

Thats good news Nick- but the meto must be seeing a strong nina given their updated winter forecast?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

well... the blocking 'failed' in 1962...

we all know what happened a week later...

Yes but the Canadian warming had already been triggered by that point...

That isn't the case today, we're reliant on the trop pattern to fall into place to trigger it

[January Snowstorm]

The change in output today really began 3-4 days ago. Subtle changes then started to nudge everything into FI with the key 5-7 day time frame being downgraded.

Where to from here,

1) The blocking on offer really is a pattern change with Northern latitude blocking taking a strong foothold over the next week or so. Result cold and snow.

2) The blocking on offer slowly evaporating  (mainly caused by a delay in the cold pooling over arctic) and business as normal with the pv setting up shop in its usual home. Result mild and wet.

 

Answers on a postcard.......either way the next week should reveal a lot about where we are heading

 

 

[Summer Sun]

NOAA

PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVE

THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS THE WEAKEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE 12Z
NAM BECAME THE STRONGEST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD -- THE USUAL NAM
BIAS.  A COMPROMISE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 12Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, AND
12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SHORTWAVE STREAKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER TUE-THU
SHORTWAVE STREAKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER MON-WED
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER FL THROUGH TUESDAY

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yep, no need to hit the panic button..it's still autumn

Fraid my finger is always on the panic button 

TBH i dont think anyone knows what next week will bring- but i do know that rain i can hear lashing against the window wont be repeated for a good 5 days minimum- 

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats good news Nick- but the meto must be seeing a strong nina given their updated winter forecast?

I can’t seem to find the forecast on their site?  Do you have the link? 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fraid my finger is always on the panic button 

TBH i dont think anyone knows what next week will bring- but i do know that rain i can hear lashing against the window wont be repeated for a good 5 days minimum- 

All this worry is unnecessary really, just have faith in the latest met office update and everything will be fine..for coldies

There has been some stunning output recently and I think there will be plenty more in the coming days, we just can't expect every run to be perfect.

I think nick sussex will soon be going code white!!!!

Edited November 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

I can’t seem to find the forecast on their site?  Do you have the link? 

Its in the general weather discussion- Summer sun posted it , think its contingency section..

[Dennis]

its an exiting time - i think the reloads are not over

[weirpig]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its in the general weather discussion- Summer sun posted it , think its contingency section..

I haven't seen that  is this the same forecast that went for mainly north eastern winds last winter?  If so wet and mild is the best update of the season 

[Hotspur62]

Well this model watching lark is nothing but entertaining!! Bit like watching Spurs play from a coldies perspective in trying to get cold and snow in is never simple like us winning at Wembley in the PL is never simple.Last night ECM and GFS looked very good but UKMO was the party pooper. Now tonight UKMO looks good at T+144 but the ECM and GFS are getting cold feet on if next weeks Northerly will arrive or turn into a Southerly lol!!.I have been on this forum 5 years and so many times have D8,9 &10 day charts looked full of promise for cold and snow on both GFS and ECM and then BANG-It all goes TU!!.What is fascinating over last 2 weeks is you seem to get a trend of say 3 or 4 consecutive runs looking cold-like GFS for example yesterday and then this morning it is shifting its emphasis to a less cold solution.Who is to say tomorrow morning it may shift back to a colder solution?.

There are so many great people on this forum with so much knowledge and the vast majority want the cold and snow(myself included).However,one thing i have learnt is until you get to T+48 and General Model concensus, you just cant get too carried away as sadly getting a nationwide cold/snowy spell in the UK  is a lot harder work than it used to be.Lets hope we get lucky this winter which tbf doesnt strictly start till Friday!!

 

 

[Methuselah]

If just one severe, snowy blast comes our way, I'll be happy...So come on GFS18Z - give us your best??

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes but the Canadian warming had already been triggered by that point...

That isn't the case today, we're reliant on the trop pattern to fall into place to trigger it

but there was no major blocking which may have triggered it. just wave activity which we are seeing now.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

its an exiting time - i think the reloads are not over

That’s is just an insane chart given the time of year. What panic! Chill people, you may not have a choice soon 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners

Thanks SWH and thanks also to Northwest Snow. Great username by the way , shortwave traumas are part and parcel of this thread !

[Man With Beard]

EC mean at T192 represents a likely delay in the return to a polar dominated picture, with heights still strong over Europe.

From T216, though, much of the increased flatness of the mean is more down to timing of the next northerly, upon inspection of the ens members. Not very many "end of the road" ensembles, and there's always a few on any run by D9.

Edited November 27, 2017 by Man With Beard

[A.J]

too many armchair experts for me tonight, I don't know if I'm coming or going re. recent model runs...I think I need a lie down, I have a headache............

 

.....but, before I do, big news!......thanks to having done extensive research  the past 48 hours on model thread member behaviour and the model runs I have discovered what Einstein failed to do in his lifetime, I have discovered the equation for the Theory of Everything!!!!!!!!!! (Thats 10 points on the Shaky Exclamation Counter!...lol)

Over Excitable model thread posters

+

Model outputs

=

 

(It totally explains 'Existence') 

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC mean at T192 represents a likely delay in the return to a polar dominated picture, with heights still strong over Europe.

From T216, though, much of the increased flatness of the mean is more down to timing of the next northerly, upon inspection of the ens members. Not very many "end of the road" ensembles, and there's always a few on any run by D9.

Perfect timing MWB, Cheers for the update. Hopefully that puts that to bed