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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Overnight ECM

looks a fair shout then 2-4 inches for the SE corner on Monday morn

IMG_2230.thumb.PNG.4ee95b2238f3f4352ea44d3df5827690.PNG

 

There's nothing on that,that suggests 2-4" for South East corner.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Not a bad run from the both models cold for while yet the normal twitching in lala land but nothing to get disheartened about.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
20 minutes ago, joggs said:

There's nothing on that,that suggests 2-4" for South East corner.

There is here.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20171211-1500z.html

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
58 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Overnight ECM

looks a fair shout then 2-4 inches for the SE corner on Monday morn

 

 

ECM is the only model I can see providing the SE with this snowfall ATM - perhaps the UKMO might as well. Looking across the models, very uncertain what will happen to this but the 20cm snow reports from last night look off now.

I'm sure tomorrow's snow has drifted south again, too - nothing at all for NI according to EURO4 now, and probably nothing north of Manchester.

Further ahead, the Atlantic continues to struggle to make inroads after 17/18 Dec. The ECM op is interesting as it looks like a front will stall across colder air - still fairly cold in the SE by the end of the run.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Already a rash of off topic posts have been hidden, Just Model discussion please in here or posts will go missing. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Well its a full on hit for the midlands tomorrow!!but hopefully it doesnt go anymore further south now!!arpege suggests 10-20cms widely and so does the euro4 and ecm!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Talk about misleading. Everyone = Southeastern parts.

@Gustywind isn’t misleading. 

BBC graphics for Monday not inline with the overnight ECM

Pretty much rain for all from the Low Monday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

Sorry should’ve been clearer - everyone as in everyone shown as being affected by the system on Monday, (SE, E Mids, E Anglia, Lincs). 

Edited by Gustywind
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I think a further complication for tomorrow to add to the already Da Vinci Code set up is the warm front ahead of the main set of fronts.

Yesterdays fax chart did not have this extra front and it runs ahead before edging back south again later. Its a real mess overall and it might just come down to looking out of your window!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM is the only model I can see providing the SE with this snowfall ATM - perhaps the UKMO might as well. Looking across the models, very uncertain what will happen to this but the 20cm snow reports from last night look off now.

I'm sure tomorrow's snow has drifted south again, too - nothing at all for NI according to EURO4 now, and probably nothing north of Manchester.

Further ahead, the Atlantic continues to struggle to make inroads after 17/18 Dec. The ECM op is interesting as it looks like a front will stall across colder air - still fairly cold in the SE by the end of the run.

The overnight GFS has now started showing Snow for parts of the South East on Monday morning.

Interesting to see a narrow line of snow along the South coast from Brighton to Hastings with rain either side of that.

Sourced from xcweather who use gfs data I believe.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

I believe the BBC forecasts/graphics this morning will be using last night's data. This morning's won't be used until their forecasts this afternoon. Hence they conflict with the slight southern shift shown by the models this morning. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I see nothing mild on the Gfs 00z for the week ahead, indeed it looks cold, a bit less cold next wednesday then becoming colder again from the north during the second half of next week.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
28 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM is the only model I can see providing the SE with this snowfall ATM - perhaps the UKMO might as well. Looking across the models, very uncertain what will happen to this but the 20cm snow reports from last night look off now.

I'm sure tomorrow's snow has drifted south again, too - nothing at all for NI according to EURO4 now, and probably nothing north of Manchester.

Further ahead, the Atlantic continues to struggle to make inroads after 17/18 Dec. The ECM op is interesting as it looks like a front will stall across colder air - still fairly cold in the SE by the end of the run.

Gfs has brought it further North again along with its ens really is a hard one to forecast metoffice video update looks further North than EURO4 also.

Lamppost forecast it seems.

Screenshot_20171209-075907.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs has brought it further North again along with its ens really is a hard one to forecast metoffice video update looks further North than EURO4 also.

Lamppost forecast it seems.

Screenshot_20171209-075907.png

Good site for tracking real time, might help the nerves for midlands north folk :)

http://www.sat24.com/eu?animation=true&ir=True

onto Monday, some disagreements at just 72 hours out!! Not looking great for snow starved south it has to be said compared to 12 hours ago.

CE81C977-4B1B-4073-B06E-CBAC2451F2FE.thumb.gif.5bf55ad8bd4bc4881bb02df3803f310a.gif0BDA09B0-522A-4688-853D-BC26BB1234FE.thumb.png.59e0fa86b295c9323f87f2c5ca4ebe0e.png3C659231-7956-42B4-B24F-843E4D66BB86.thumb.gif.4e72f3e6fee85ffef57067bb65308d17.gif

At +48 the GFS doesn’t develop the low as quickly as ECM, this should be resolved by the 12z I’d think!

49B487A0-073A-4392-8DE4-8B5FA80EFEB6.thumb.png.ee556f759a9e5ecd8442f394fb39e29d.png11ECE50B-804F-49E7-8B30-FFD77D6C3ADC.thumb.gif.8e4016ff483331d1be6a2093e653b812.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Anyway putting aside the slider low which has had more attention than the first moon landing!

This mornings ECM isn't quite as good as last night because a lobe of the PV runs from north of Scandi back west to the main chunk over ne Canada however the broad theme is the same.

NOAA have commented that we might see a relaxation in the upstream pattern past T168hrs which means the strongly positive PNA weakening so this will allow the PV to edge east but its not clear yet how far east it's going to get.

Before then we do see attempts to build a ridge to the ne and still too early to rule this out, the outputs generally agree on another nw/n flow for next weekend then a quieter period.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The run up to christmas becomes very mild on the Gfs 00z which would help the December daffs to flourish!:whistling:

00_324_uk2mtmp.png

00_324_mslp850.png

00_348_uk2mtmp.png

00_348_mslp850.png

00_372_uk2mtmp.png

00_372_mslp850.png

00_384_uk2mtmp.png

p1020680.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think a further complication for tomorrow to add to the already Da Vinci Code set up is the warm front ahead of the main set of fronts.

Yesterdays fax chart did not have this extra front and it runs ahead before edging back south again later. Its a real mess overall and it might just come down to looking out of your window!

 

 

Yes nick, from a personal perspective this has gone very well re the trough extension (ecm the call on this) but the warm front which came into play on Thursdays fax charts and disappeared yesterday morning is back today and it messes with the southern extent of the snowline. Euro 4 has now recognised this little low into the se of England preventing the push north of less cold uppers and mixing out of the cold with the snowline shifted south some 30 miles. however, looking at its 850/1000 thicknesses indicates that the warm front shown on the faxes is there. seems to be more emphasis on sleet/snow returning south later on tomorrow but looks messy and unsubstantial. The midlands however look like they will take a big hit tomorrow and this now extends into the n half of east anglia. (Away from the coastal strip which could be 20 miles or so)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

So, - according to the Gfs 00z there is something much milder lurking in the woodshed for Christmas..but that shouldn't be a surprise as last night's GEFS mean indicated positive NAO conditions during that period..haven't checked this morning's yet!:help::D

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
51 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

The overnight GFS has now started showing Snow for parts of the South East on Monday morning.

Interesting to see a narrow line of snow along the South coast from Brighton to Hastings with rain either side of that.

Sourced from xcweather who use gfs data I believe.

Yes but nothing substantial

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