Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Devonshire]

2 hours ago, gottolovethisweather said:

EDIT: Here's the t+60 Fax Chart, see what I mean.  Bleedin interesting setup, I say. 

Would you be kind enough  to say why?

[karlos1983]

44 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking through those (probably overexagerated) snow charts on weather.us - EC 12Z ensembles out to Monday - that slider low is nothing for uncertainty on this new event!! We have up to a foot of snow and no consensus at all on where it's going. Some go SW. Some go central south. A few go SE. Only about 20% fail to produce heavy snow south of the M4. And we're now inside T72!

Going by that then central southern England looking good lol. You can of course be certain that the 20% will be correct on this occasion  

[Team Jo]

13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Just as a matter of interest...is there a reason there isn't a winter model thread...strange were all posting in  a 'potential cold end to autumn thread' ? Come on mods

Sorry, but for starters,  it’s Friday night and it’s work enough pruning the off topic stuff without worrying about a thread title being a week old.

Moreover when we change threads, we have to lock the current one which means anyone in the middle of posting (and we’re getting several posts a minute at the moment) will lose what they’ve gone to the effort of typing out. Sometimes it’s quite a lot.

Hopefully the title isn’t affecting everyone’s overall experience of the thread generally. 

 

[Nick L]

27 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I hope this is sarcasm. The guy is a clown. He highlights every part of every winter for disruptive snow, without giving any specific detail, and then claims to be right every time there is snow over the Cairngorms. He's been 'forecasting' snow every week since October.

Hear hear. I hope any newbies on here take heed of this. Madden is a charlatan who has zero clue about meteorology, and I am very disappointed that his name is getting any credit here.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Going by that then central southern England looking good lol. You can of course be certain that the 20% will be correct on this occasion  

I really hope you get to see some snow there in Dorset otherwise I might start a funding page to get you to Lapland!

A positive that might help those towards the south coast is the flow being off shore re that low at T72hrs, so less issues than say if the flow was se with dew points lower with that more ne flow.

 

 

 

 

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I really hope you get to see some snow there in Dorset otherwise I might start a funding page to get you to Lapland!

A positive that might help those towards the south coast is the flow being off shore re that low at T72hrs, so less issues than say if the flow was se with dew points lower with that more ne flow.

 

 

 

 

I’m half way to talking the wife into a trip to the midlands with the kids tomorrow and a hotel stay, with the promise of shopping on Sunday!! Luckily she never watches the weather! Snigger snigger! Fingers crossed 

Edited December 8, 2017 by karlos1983

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Hear hear. I hope any newbies on here take heed of this. Madden is a charlatan who has zero clue about meteorology, and I am very disappointed that his name is getting any credit here.

Nick I totally agree. Even a blind Squirrel will eventually stumble upon an acorn.

 

[snow freak]

38 minutes ago, Delka said:

Probably my favourite outcome so far, bringing heavy snowfall to many with the whole of East Anglia joining in on the act too! Unfortunately unlikely to happen but it's some lovely eye candy for some..

 

38 minutes ago, Delka said:

Probably my favourite outcome so far, bringing heavy snowfall to many with the whole of East Anglia joining in on the act too! Unfortunately unlikely to happen but it's some lovely eye candy for some..

what's the point of these charts if they don't come to fruition?  There is no point.

[bluearmy]

two weeks since this gefs mean anomoly took our interest - just shows sometimes they aren’t as worthless as some think

[Summer Sun]

Arpege keeps the bulk of Monday's rain over in Europe with Kent and parts of the south coast the only areas which clip it

Edited December 8, 2017 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

This slider low has turned into Play Your Cards Right!

Instead of couples you've got the southern v northern contingent. Each output is met with desperate pleas of higher or lower or in this case go north or go south!

Given the timeframes its less likely you'll get any big corrections but still room for some changes.

Anyway the next instalment of the slider low saga or better named attention seeking  model celebrity will soon be  arriving!

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

47 minutes ago, Delka said:

Probably my favourite outcome so far, bringing heavy snowfall to many with the whole of East Anglia joining in on the act too! Unfortunately unlikely to happen but it's some lovely eye candy for some..

1st one looks like a pair of bleedin' specs, long way off for detail yet though

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This slider low has turned into Play Your Cards Right!

Instead of couples you've got the southern v northern contingent. Each output is met with desperate pleas of higher or lower or in this case go north or go south!

Given the timeframes its less likely you'll get any big corrections but still room for some changes.

Anyway the next instalment of the slider low saga or better named attention seeking  model celebrity will soon be  arriving!

 

Nothing for a pair not in this game

[Catacol]

I know everyone is excited about the weekend - not quite so much me in Somerset - rain all the way here on Sunday I reckon. However my eye has been caught by the latest WDT update today - images in particular:

Simple explanation here is that momentum budgets continue to hold up very well despite our Nina base state. MJO is hammering pretty quickly towards phase 7 which should support return of high lat blocking. In essence - the pinch of salt advised yesterday in terms of trusting model forecasts pointing towards any lengthy spell of westerlies just got pinchier. Decent amplitude looks likely to continue...

[Man With Beard]

Quick take on ECM ensembles - generally more reluctance to get the Atlantic back by D10 with many members starting to beef up an eastern block (not a majority) - by D15, more of the zonal members have won through.

[chionomaniac]

15 minutes ago, snow freak said:

 

what's the point of these charts if they don't come to fruition?  There is no point.

Of course there is a point - that is what the model thread is all about - looking at charts that we dream would come to fruition. They are as valid as any. It's hardly as if those charts are in FI!

(note - the only chart that ever really comes to fruition is T+0)

[shaky]

Further south again on 18z and more in line with ecm!!

[Man With Beard]

Latest GFS looks 30-50 miles further south on Sunday's slider so far

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, further South

[Frostbite1980]

Mondays low is further South as well and not so deep

[snow freak]

6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Of course there is a point - that is what the model thread is all about - looking at charts that we dream would come to fruition. They are as valid as any. It's hardly as if those charts are in FI!

(note - the only chart that ever really comes to fruition is T+0)

that's exactly it though....a dream.

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, snow freak said:

that's exactly it though....a dream.

Somebody's dreams will come true on Sunday. I believe

Edited December 8, 2017 by winterof79

[Aaki Khan]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, further South

Snap with Meto Amber Warning

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Mondays low is further South as well and not so deep

Yes, think EC is way out here, SS posted short range model too

[bluearmy]

I think I just found the reason for ecm 12z having the snow line as far south as the n Home Counties 

a discreet little low at the extension of the trough at 9am Sunday