Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[bluearmy]

Latest T48 FAX 

u

no doubt that over the past 36 hours we had trended back north somewhat. Still within a small envelope but  no sign of the system going ever south, run by run. The good news for the east is that warm front ahead of the occlusion is now gone but the bad news for southerners is the exit point being Norfolk takes the front too far north for anywhere south of the midlands to see lying snow on Sunday ( could be transient )

Edited December 8, 2017 by bluearmy

[Southender]

10 minutes ago, MKN said:

Fair way North

Jeez.

Now looking like North of a line from Aberystwyth - Birmingham - Peterborough - Cromer

So much for the M4.

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Latest T48 FAX 

u

Yup same line as this morning just further east thats all!!ecm identical at 48 hours to yesterdays 12z at 72 hours!!!!we all know that gave snow widely through central england!!

[ukpaul]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Jeez.

Now looking like North of a line from Aberystwyth - Birmingham - Peterborough - Cromer

So much for the M4.

This is only up until Sunday afternoon, the Monday event for the South won’t show up until tomorrow.

[cowdog]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Latest T48 FAX 

u

Thats a significant shift north from this mornings for same time:

gah not linking right

 

 

Edited December 8, 2017 by cowdog

[radiohead]

ECM has the low on Monday a bit further north than the GFS.

[Weather-history]

ECM 72hr chart has a 962mb low in the Channel. which is pretty remarkable.

[Southender]

Us in the SE will be needing boats by the end of Monday. Big rain totals possible. Without even talking about the winds.

Places like Telford will be needing the Army and a huge fleet of snow ploughs however.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Southender

[bluearmy]

Mondays ecm snowchart should promote a fair bit of activity in here. ..............

[radiohead]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Mondays ecm snowchart should promote a fair bit of activity in here. ..............

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Mondays ecm snowchart should promote a fair bit of activity in here. ..............

Cant see where its getting its snow depths from especially in the south where it will be largely rain sunday & monday.

[shotski]

Just now, radiohead said:

Mmmmm.......it looks like Sunday’s did 24 hours ago ???

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Mondays ecm snowchart should promote a fair bit of activity in here. ..............

No change for sunday bluearmy gives a good old dumping of 8 inches for midlands and wales!!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Try a few hours later ! 

Crazy forecast but likely to change of course 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Monday's low on EC is much further north, could be more for north west  midlands areas again

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

No change for sunday bluearmy gives a good old dumping of 8 inches for midlands and wales!!

It's actually showing snowfall a little further south than its 00z run for Sunday which maintains the snowline envelope in the northern  home counties across to Bristol 

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, MKN said:

Cant see where its getting its snow depths from especially in the south where it will be largely rain sunday & monday.

Obviously it isn't rain ?

[bluearmy]

Just now, Johnp said:

Obviously it isn't rain ?

on that model ..................  currently ..............

[Ice Day]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Try a few hours later ! 

Crazy forecast but likely to change of course 

I think this is what you're referring to Blue?  Snow depths for 9.00am on Tuesday

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

I think this is what you're referring to Blue?  Snow depths for 9.00am on Tuesday

Probably accurate, the South-East misses out again. 

On a serious note, I don't know what algorithms those charts use to determine snow accumulation but they definitely seem well "out there" compared to every other model in existence.

[chris55]

I know this is the MOD thread, but the charts for Sunday into Monday are so complex and changeable the focus of discussion is firmly at this timescale, which is nice to see, I don't think I have seen the term "FI" mentioned for some significant time  

[bluearmy]

you know I was just looking back at the runs for last Friday and next weekend currently looks more wintry than this one did at that range, both on the op and ens. I wonder if next weekend could end up just as interesting as this one is looking ........

[-uksnow-]

1 minute ago, Danny* said:

Probably accurate, the South-East misses out again. 

On a serious note, I don't know what algorithms those charts use to determine snow accumulation but they definitely seem well "out there" compared to every other model in existence.

Not strictly UK related, but over the past month of snow here in Oslo they have performed to within an inch every time. 

ECM 168 seems to be pulling something else out the bag tonight, signs of our Scandi friend appearing.

[blizzard81]

Ecm 168hrs - does that intense cold blob to the north of Russia have our name on it for Christmas? 

[Methuselah]

52 minutes ago, TEITS said:

That above is what I disagree with. The trend in my opinion is to lose the NW airstreams and be replaced by a milder W,ly flow.

Indeed TEITS: with each run that comes along, the emphasis is becoming less and less toward a cold outlook; it's as if the less-cold spells are getting longer whilst the 'Arctic blasts' get fewer and farther between...?

From what I'm seeing, once the early part of next week's out of the way, any cause for celebration fades to almost nothing. Until the time when/if a strong Scandi high develops, of course?