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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

wonder why they got midlands /nw england for amber blue?

any ideas :)

Because you stay away from that warm front of influence east of the low centre which swings north further east - if that doesn’t appear on next fax then expect the heavier snow warning to extend further east. Of course the onshore flow will have higher dp’s too so Counties bordering the North Sea could suffer in that regard 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Euro 4 6z and GFS 6z almost identical at +48.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Whilst I agree with the Southwards corrections and not out of the question that they continue to a certain extent, I still think the 6z Euro4 looks a good representation, I'm going for somewhere like Stoke on Trent to be the sweet spot - 6 inches, maybe 8 at a push possibly N.wales 10 inches of lying snow because of what they've already probably had by then, this as got Jan 13 all over it, @CreweCold to break his lying snow record is my big prediction.

17121006_0806.gif

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

It’s not rocket science people 

5C9B9B33-0805-474C-80A6-3A530173107A.thumb.jpeg.11851d42ee51a99c7723636d9d5feeb1.jpeg

although I suspect the current chart would be a tad south of that 

the warm front has moved north as the low slides across so further west avoids the warmer air and the snow stays as snow 

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Euro 4 6z and GFS 6z almost identical at +48.

The Euro4 covers Northern Ireland, the GFS 6z misses it completely, that's quite a big difference for a whole country there!

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Wind gusts for Sunday & Monday, some squally winds across the south & southwest England (as well as South Wales, more likely only on Sunday here) with perhaps the most severe winds becoming restricted to the south coast by Monday. Looks like quite a nasty spell of weather to come though after a relatively calm week. 

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Edited by Draig Goch
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whilst I agree with the Southwards corrections and not out of the question that they continue to a certain extent, I still think the 6z Euro4 looks a good representation, I'm going for somewhere like Stoke on Trent to be the sweet spot - 6 inches, maybe 8 at a push possibly N.wales 10 inches of lying snow because of what they've already probably had by then, this as got Jan 13 all over it, @CreweCold to break his lying snow record is my big prediction.

17121006_0806.gif

A lot.of snow potentially there from oxford northwards!!looks exactly like the arpege!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Gefs 06z continue the drift to upper Scandi ridge 

assuning this continues then the Canadian vortex needs to pull back west somewhat to avoid putting too much pressure on the ridges ability to force undercut of the jet to provide a supply of low heights for Europe and some split flow north to keep the ridge held up with WAA. Of course the split flow north is less important than the jet staying south re cold prospects for nw Europe 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well the Gfs 6z is great, not only do we have a major snow event on sunday, we also have another cold week ahead with further snow followed by a frosty anticyclone with severe night frosts, especially over the snow fields!:cold-emoji::santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

APERGE 6Z pushes the rain/snow band quite a lot further north by t48

significantly further north actually!!

looks very similar to EURO4 actually :)

on closer insection its similar to the 0z run- the snow really getting into midlands/nw england and yorkshire.

Model watching is really fascinating right now .. :)

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Never has phase timing meant so much in terms of snow prospects!

You can clearly see why the GFS 06hrs run is further south because the phase with the trough to the east is delayed which allows a bit more se momentum before the turn to the east.

Putting aside the slider saga the GFS is best in the medium term with better separation and amplification upstream, the ECM is in the middle and the UKMO is dire, horrible !

We really need that UKMO to be chucked in the cat litter tray tonight, its flat upstream with no chance of developing a ridge to the nw.

All I can say is be gone with you and don't darken this model thread again with that output tonight!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Model watching is really fascinating right now .. :)

Especially if you're in the amber warning zone for sunday! spare a thought for those who ain't, not so fascinating, more frustrating but at least the Gfs 6z shows further cold weather next week with a risk of snow at times, Monday could be snowy even in the south / southeast followed by a large frosty FI high .:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 hours ago, TEITS said:

The Low on Monday is becoming concerning!

GFSOPUK06_78_1.png

Beyond all this excitement and the milder, flatter more mobile pattern is gaining momentum in the output as I mentioned a few days ago. I know this contradicts the posts by GP, Tamara but its consistently being shown.

Agreed Dave...it looks like a horrendous recipe for heavy drifting wet snow, and associated damage to overhead power cables; and, of course, heavy driving rain and gales in places too 'warm' for snow...? :help:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Man With Beard said:

GEM joins the Monday back-edge snow campaign

gemfr-2-90.png?00

almost all GEFS members have this back-edge snow although the track much more up for grabs than Sunday's event

Not back edge snow agaIn ! 

Monday is even tougher than Sunday imo! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not back edge snow agaIn ! 

Monday is even tougher than Sunday imo! 

Back edge is better than no edge!:D

The Cheshire gap is doing well today with snow showers streaming SE.:cold-emoji:..Great model output for the reliable, hoping upstream pattern will prolong the cold outlook into the mid / longer range!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
2 hours ago, TEITS said:

The Low on Monday is becoming concerning!

GFSOPUK06_78_1.png

Beyond all this excitement and the milder, flatter more mobile pattern is gaining momentum in the output as I mentioned a few days ago. I know this contradicts the posts by GP, Tamara but its consistently being shown.

Is this low basically the same one GFS started showing last friday as coming down the North Sea about now, a run which caused some concern about a sea surge?

regards the apparent nimby (or pimby...please in my backyard) posting on the track of what comes over us Sunday or Monday, i personally think it's warranted, as without knowing this, it's hard to know how much reliance on what the models produce thereafter.....

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Is this low basically the same one GFS started showing last friday as coming down the North Sea about now, a run which caused some concern about a sea surge?

regards the apparent nimby (or pimby...please in my backyard) posting on the track of what comes over us Sunday or Monday, i personally think it's warranted, as without knowing this, it's hard to know how much reliance on what the models produce thereafter.....

No,its  the slider that develops.

Edited by joggs
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GEM joins the Monday back-edge snow campaign

gemfr-2-90.png?00

almost all GEFS members have this back-edge snow although the track much more up for grabs than Sunday's event

Just out of intrest what are the rainfall rates over the Alps being shown.... Looks way of the scale.

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

looking at the long term and backing up comments from GP & Tamara regarding heights building towards Scandi as the PV lobe over NE US pulls west , you have to say the postage stamps of the 06z GEFS are trending that way! as Bluearmy stated before.  

GFSPANELEU06_384_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

looking at the long term and backing up comments from GP & Tamara regarding heights building towards Scandi as the PV lobe over NE US pulls west , you have to say the postage stamps of the 06z GEFS are trending that way! as Bluearmy stated before.  

GFSPANELEU06_384_1.png

Indeed and the way things are trending any milder weather if any looks short lived.very interesting outlook and nice to be discussing the models if only while the 12z!!!

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