Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[radiohead]

Very intense rain over the SE with strong winds. Falling as snow further west and north.

Later turning to snow in the SE as the low moves on

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday's low looks nasty heavy rain for the south but also the chance of some heavy snow in places

Edited December 8, 2017 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Epic snowstorm for someone...

Or no one come Monday !!

the sypnotic evolution really should be a snow delivery system but without having a good few days of embedded cold in place it’s a struggle. The knife edge scenarios often bring the best reward so we will see on Monday who are the winners. 

The envelope on the sliding system between the south coast and line Carlisle to Newcastle, with M4 to M62 in the higher probability. 

[northwestsnow]

Great runs again for midlands and the south-

Dreadful news for mby these corrections south are basically  putting my location out of the game- 

Still, best of luck to the lucky peeps who get plastered !!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Well hello there! 

 

[alexisj9]

9 hours ago, lewis clark said:

Just a quick question if anyone can help, does anyone know which model xc weather use for their forecasts, i use them alot for winds and they are normally always spot on 3 or 4 days out, just curious?  Anyway interesting watching the last few weeks  i havnt a clue on charts and models  but love cold weather and am sure this winters going to be different....

Gfs, which is going to change considerably soon as the snow line in the 6z has moved quite a bit more south. 

[Man With Beard]

Not often you see almost everywhere south of Cumbria white - if it happens.

This is up to T84 and, apart from snow in the SW which is a new development, in fair agreement with ECM snow analysis for that time - but not ARGEPE.

Areas around the Welsh border look like being seriously affected, with up to a foot of snow falling by the end of Monday. Some ECM ensembles have over 24 inches in this region!

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Gfs, which is going to change considerably soon as the snow line in the 6z has moved quite a bit more south. 

Before you know it these snow accumulation charts will look like the ecm one lol!!ecm forecasting 8 inches+ of snow for central england and wales!!

[TEITS]

The Low on Monday is becoming concerning!

Beyond all this excitement and the milder, flatter more mobile pattern is gaining momentum in the output as I mentioned a few days ago. I know this contradicts the posts by GP, Tamara but its consistently being shown.

[steveinsussex]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

 

 

Beyond all this excitement and the milder, flatter more mobile pattern is gaining momentum in the output as I mentioned a few days ago. I know this contradicts the posts by GP, Tamara but its consistently being shown.

Temporarily

[SMU]

With everything sliding further south you would expect the monday system to... 

For example look at much the slider has changed in 36 hours - yet we had people saying it was a hopecast

[Man With Beard]

The possible snow event for Monday shows 60 mph wind gusts to go with it.

Many northern areas look like missing out completely for now, as the next Atlantic band may be higher ground only:

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

More gale to severe gales (northerly this time) on Monday too perhaps the worst restricted across the far south. So Sunday & Monday brings the risk of some very windy weather and definitely one to watch. I expect some warnings will be issued today. 

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

One or 2 posts have been removed.Please all read the guide from Paul at the top and only post about the models in here.

If your post has views on the charts that's for here otherwise for general chat about snow please head over to the regionals or the general winter threads.

Thanks.

Good luck yes Teits very stormy Mon. Looking forward as you say becoming milder going threw the rest of the month 

The gp and tamara musings arnt without interest but are out of my pay band tbh

[Glacier Point]

5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Beyond all this excitement and the milder, flatter more mobile pattern is gaining momentum in the output as I mentioned a few days ago. I know this contradicts the posts by GP, Tamara but its consistently being shown.

Nope. Re-read. A milder phase is perfectly feasible.

[Spikey M]

5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

The Low on Monday is becoming concerning!

Beyond all this excitement and the milder, flatter more mobile pattern is gaining momentum in the output as I mentioned a few days ago. I know this contradicts the posts by GP, Tamara but its consistently being shown.

Wow. Whatever the precipitation is, if that verifies it is going to pack some punch.

[radiohead]

06Z HIRLAM looks to be a touch further south than the GFS.

[Frosty.]

Very exciting Gfs 6z with a southward adjustment meaning the south and southeast is coming more into the snow risk zone on sun and overnight & throughout Monday..could be a big dump for southern uk..fingers crossed!

Edited December 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[ukpaul]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Great runs again for midlands and the south-

Dreadful news for mby these corrections south are basically  putting my location out of the game- 

Still, best of luck to the lucky peeps who get plastered !!

Not at all, up here just across from you the snow depth total is not much less than the 12z, pretty consistent in the same area for the last couple of days.

People need to stop thinking of runs as corrections, they are not they are just different options.

I think the high res models, WRF, Arpege, Arome, Hirlam, Euro4 are where we should be focusing now, add those to the mix and you get a better overall picture.

[SMU]

GFS sharpens up the jet @144 & creates another midlands snow event-

looks like one posted the other day 1998??

S

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS sharpens up the jet @144 & creates another midlands snow event-

looks like one posted the other day 1998??

S

Steve have you seen the latest hirlam!!looks tasty for london northwards to north wales!!

[Chesil View]

Just now, TEITS said:

The Low on Monday is becoming concerning!

Beyond all this excitement and the milder, flatter more mobile pattern is gaining momentum in the output as I mentioned a few days ago. I know this contradicts the posts by GP, Tamara but its consistently being shown.

Not really Teits GP and Tamara both highlighted a slightly flatter phase during the transition from atlantic high to scandi high. What you are flagging up is actually in line with their suggested progression 

[Staffordshire]

Further corrections south here, i am expecting the low wont be this deep, thus allowing for further southerly corrections, Southern England in for an absolute pasting Sunday/Monday, Northern England/Midlands slowly slipping out of the picture here.

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve have you seen the latest hirlam!!looks tasty for london northwards to north wales!!

Yes its been checked- Northward line @48 is about peterborough & gives me about 2 hours snowfall...

but looks good further west & North.. however not much correction needed on the remaining 7 runs out to T42..

Eur0 4 will be in range on the 06z

S

[TEITS]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Not really Teits GP and Tamara both highlighted a slightly flatter phase during the transition from atlantic high to scandi high. What you are flagging up is actually in line with their suggested progression 

Must of missed some of the posts because last I read was a continuation of what we currently have. Easy to miss posts on this thread.