Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM awful run apart from the midlands dumping, looking like whoever gets snow should make the most of it as chances look diminished for a good while after this.

 

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And looking at the gefs NH profile we continue to see Stewart's thoughts being played out with the p/v beginning to drift west and the n Pacific ridge re establishing rather closer to the aleutians 

Gents, two completely different ideas hear of the same model, 

Not good for newbies, 

Feb91, look at the bigger picture, the Pacific ridge relocation, waxing And waning lobes of the vortex and ridges causes mayhem with the models, best to sit back and watch the models toy around for the next few days whilst they get to grip on a shift. 

I think we may get a 2/3 day more mobile pattern before deeper cold takes hold.

[chris55]

 

13 hours ago, craigore said:

 

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Chimes with regional METo update. 

What does it say? 

[Man With Beard]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM awful run apart from the midlands dumping, looking like whoever gets snow should make the most of it as chances look diminished for a good while after this.

I was thought it was ok from a cold point of view. Snow for parts today, heavy snow Midlands/North Sunday, possible snow event SE Monday (showing on ECM once again), slightly milder for south midweek, another cold plunge next Friday/Saturday. Beyond that, still looks like there might be a change but far too early to nail that one down.

[chris55]

ECM definitely edging south with the initial slider

Such a complex picture from this point onwards with the interaction of the trough to the east. 

Some places could see many many hours of snowfall initially from the slider then from the potential wrap around low!

 

[SMU]

12z ECM v 00z ECM

[high ground birmingham]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z ECM v 00z ECM

Classic North of the M4 event. What an important motorway! I still don’t think this is resolved. Further corrections to come

[Radiating Dendrite]

Still fancy a nudge further south as we get closer. The Monday event also looking note and more tasty - somewhere is going to get a lot of snow.....12" I reckon.

[Snow shield]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z ECM v 00z ECM

I doubt the coasts would get those accumulations especially Wirral etc. Think Midlands and wales would do well from this set up imo 

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

 

Gents, two completely different ideas hear of the same model, 

Not good for newbies, 

Feb91, look at the bigger picture, the Pacific ridge relocation, waxing And waning lobes of the vortex and ridges causes mayhem with the models, best to sit back and watch the models toy around for the next few days whilst they get to grip on a shift. 

I think we may get a 2/3 day more mobile pattern before deeper cold takes hold.

Sorry Sean, Feb is miserable because ecm has moved the snowline 20 miles south for Sunday and is commenting solely on ecm op to day 10 whilst I am commenting on the gefs to day 15. No problem with consistency there ...........

[Frosty.]

It's more like snow watch in here than the model output discussion..anyway, the Ecm 00z shows the coldest weather and the highest risk of snow is today and the weekend, the uppers become less cold next week with a hint of milder midweek and the run trends milder at the end 

Edited December 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[swfc]

Morning

Still seem to be on "slider" watch on here ,phew!!!.Anyway yes as ba alluded to regarding Gp musings the  nhp does show signs of movement in regard to the pv and pacific ridge ete.hopefully some interest showing up the nne regarding heigths building during the coming days

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Sorry Sean, Feb is miserable because ecm has moved the snowline 20 miles south for Sunday and is commenting solely on ecm op to day 10 whilst I am commenting on the gefs to day 15. No problem with consistency there ...........

And backed up by the eps, as for the snow, I'm stil in it and ecm gives me 10 inches lying snow by the end of run (not that it will verify) but the hemispheric pattern worries me, ive heard all about these 'temporary blips' before wrt low pressure starting to dominate around S Greenland, they usually end up ruining the rest of winter.

[WINTRY WALES]

24 minutes ago, Snow shield said:

I doubt the coasts would get those accumulations especially Wirral etc. Think Midlands and wales would do well from this set up imo 

With most of Wales population living in South Wales...still looks like we been more of a southern correction...just mostly mountains and sheep in Mid and North going to see some white stuff...apologies to any of my Welsh friends who actually live in these areas ?

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And backed up by the eps, as for the snow, I'm stil in it and ecm gives me 10 inches lying snow by the end of run (not that it will verify) but the hemispheric pattern worries me, ive heard all about these 'temporary blips' before wrt low pressure starting to dominate around S Greenland, they usually end up ruining the rest of winter.

With no convincing signs of euro height rises we could see cool zonality as the transition but no doubt that the extended eps are rebuilding the pos PNA as per the gefs 

Edited December 8, 2017 by bluearmy

[snowice]

29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's more like snow watch in here than the model output discussion..anyway, the Ecm 00z shows the coldest weather and the highest risk of snow is today and the weekend, the uppers become less cold next week with a hint of milder midweek and the run trends milder at the end 

ECM has been very consistent with Sundays front.

[Lincs Observation]

41 minutes ago, Snow shield said:

I doubt the coasts would get those accumulations especially Wirral etc. Think Midlands and wales would do well from this set up imo 

Should those chart comparisons be the same (12z + 12z not 12z + 00z) can be confusing other wise 

LO

[Frosty.]

Latest info on sunday for southern england it's a damp squib with temps around 6 or 7c, milder across the southwest, nearer 10c. Looking towards Christmas, the Gfs 00z shows a milder trend with the jet becoming aligned sw / ne.

[West is Best]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

ARPEGE on Sunday low

https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/run/2017120800/arpegeeur-2-60.png?0

Fairly broad agreement across the models so far (may not stay that way obviously).

GEM seems furthest S, GFS furthest N with the likes of the ICON, ARPEGE taking the median track.

Not any more

UKMO incl Fax charts much further south than GFS and the trend seems to be heading that way.

[West is Best]

2 hours ago, shaky said:

Yes steve ecm much further south lol!!you could not make this up  lol!!low not as deep compared with the 96 hour chart from yesterday morning!!

Pretty predictable though tbh. I'm fairly confident this will be the trend. This is a seriously cold airmass and the low isn't particularly intense. I think the low will continue to be moved south.

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the Gfs 00z, it's not cold enough in the south for snow on sunday but it is on monday..and the north / south snow line is still flip flopping so best not take the gfs as gospel. 

[snowbob]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just looking at the Gfs 00z, it's not cold enough in the south for snow on sunday but it is on monday..and the north / south snow line is still flip flopping so best not take the gfs as gospel. 

That looks more promising than previous post frosty

was wondering if Sunday’s event would help bring temps down for further attempts as we go forward into next week.

surely lying snow in the centre of the country will help with temps as it’s blown further down.

 

[CK1981]

Is it just me, or does the EURO4 have the low even further south than the ECM at +48? When comparing both, EURO4 definitely looks a little further south. What are your thoughts?

[damianslaw]

This thread is turning into a snow watch thread - please read message at the the front of the thread before posting, i.e if you are going to just talk about snow prospects please use the regionals - otherwise it is just going to get cluttered up with such talk over the next 48 hours. 

Back to the models - best stick to the reliable and the theme remains cold but with a shortlived westerly feed on Wednesday a 24 hr wonder, and another northerly for next weekend, about the sixth northerly in a sequence...

[Man With Beard]

With the EC clusters showing the odd doubtful outcome at the moment, I've looked through the EC ensembles this morning and made my own rudimentary clusters:

D10: 

Westerly/Southerly influence over UK: 70% of runs

Northerly: 10%

Easterly: 5%

Unclear/battleground: 15%

D15:

Westerly/Southerly: 45%

Northerly: 25%

Easterly: 15%

UK High: 5%

Unclear: 10%

In a nutshell, better longer-term than last night's ensembles, but westerly influence between D10 and D15 still in the ascendancy, in my opinion.