Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[gottolovethisweather]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i think the south are effectively out of the game as it stands.

But it could change again of course

3

Just a point of reference, although  p[people will take what they will from the latest outoputs, but something can't be over before its arrived, surely?

[blizzard81]

The ecm turns very flat upstream. 

[Paul]

This isn't the will it snow in my backyard thread, never has been. Nor is it the general snow chat thread either. So can those using it as such, please stop. There are loads of places to discuss all those things - the regional threads, the banter thread, the general cold weather chat thread and so on. So please, if you don't want to talk about the models, don't make your post in here. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm turns very flat upstream. 

its poor by tues, and doesnt end well either

[Frosty.]

Even though the atlantic gets in at times next week on the Ecm 12z there is still more of a polar maritime look about the flow so it never becomes mild, indeed there's another colder shot from the north later next week..cold or at least below average temps are expected following the initial arctic surge..could be a lot worse.

[-uksnow-]

Not that its worth overanalysing a 10 day chart but I think the 12 day wouldnt be that bad, push of heights from the atlantic the russian high nudging in over a sinking scandi trough. No denying that its a lot flatter than previous ECMs with our first signs of a more organised vortex though..

[blizzard81]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

its poor by tues, and doesnt end well either

Indeed. Now I know Tamara said earlier not to get involved in every op run (impossible for me lol) but the 120hr chart is a big downgrade and it is hardly in the far distant future. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening, folks just take it a little easier and relax. Some people will get a surprise snowfall overnight into tomorrow. Winter has hardly begun and we are talking real winter weather in the days ahead ,happy times I think

[Spikey M]

It looks as though the midlands and the Manchester Area are in for a bit of a pasting. Wales too, who seem to be getting hit with a lot of severe weather of late.

It will be interesting to see how the weather forecasts deal with this even on the same day as the models are struggling to tell a blizzard from a wash out for lots of us. ‘Wintry Mix’ will be the word of the day, I think.

Anyway, It’s been so long since I saw a model that I’m off to google Kate Moss.

[gottolovethisweather]

I think this was originally a response to a deleted post but I say it still needs stating as to what my personal views are over the coming days and whether people's hopes and fears might get realised with the main attention brought to the SNOW chances.

 

Just a point of reference, although people will take what they will from the latest outputs, but something can't be over before its arrived, surely? From my point of view, if we're considering Sunday's action, current guesses (with respect to all forecasters, that's all they are currently) hint at Midlands northwards snow event but I personally don't believe it'll be nailed before t-24 hours before the event, so that's Saturday, folks. As for the here and now, plenty to watch, the more snow that settles prior to the big weekend event, the better chances of it turning readily to yet more snow. Longer term, I'm not looking past D4, yes you heard that right, the depth of the cold, the depth of the snow and the disturbances in the Northerly flow are all prospects to consider what might happen during the next working week. All I'll say, keep tuned, keep watching, prepare yourselves with winter essentials if travelling and bl^*y well take care out there! 

[JBMWeatherForever]

The synoptic evolution on the latest ECM from 96 to 120 looks a bit strange to me.  I think you will see it more amplified again on the next run !

[khodds]

2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

I think this was originally a response to a deleted post but I say it still needs stating as to what my personal views are over the coming days and whether people's hopes and fears might get realised with the main attention brought to the SNOW chances.

 

Just a point of reference, although people will take what they will from the latest outputs, but something can't be over before its arrived, surely? From my point of view, if we're considering Sunday's action, current guesses (with respect to all forecasters, that's all they are currently) hint at Midlands northwards snow event but I personally don't believe it'll be nailed before t-24 hours before the event, so that's Saturday, folks. As for the here and now, plenty to watch, the more snow that settles prior to the big weekend event, the better chances of it turning readily to yet more snow. Longer term, I'm not looking past D4, yes you heard that right, the depth of the cold, the depth of the snow and the disturbances in the Northerly flow are all prospects to consider what might happen during the next working week. All I'll say, keep tuned, keep watching, prepare yourselves with winter essentials if travelling and bl^*y well take care out there! 

Thank you GTLTW for that grounded post, most appreciated ??

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The synoptic evolution on the latest ECM from 96 to 120 looks a bit strange to me.  I think you will see it more amplified again on the next run !

Well someone said earlier MJO made it likely it will flatten out in the Atlantic. As our block is to our West and not to our East, as soon as the Atlantic block flattens there is nothing stopping the flat pattern from reaching the UK very quickly.

[bobbydog]

the pacific ridge is gone on the day 10 chart

paving the way for height rises on our side of the hemisphere, as per GP and tamara's posts earlier.

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Big contrast in temperatures by Sunday afternoon. 2C in Birmingham 10C in Weston-super-Mare! 

[phil nw.]

Please help the team by only posting about the charts in here.

We are still removing ot stuff which causes unneeded work as well as spoiling the thread.

Thanks all.

[MildCarlilse]

12 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Big contrast in temperatures by Sunday afternoon. 2C in Birmingham 10C in Weston-super-Mare! 

...and -5c in Aviemore.?

[swfc]

Maybe mods a "slider"thread would have eased your work load?tbh il be glad when it's been and gone Anyway as mentioned ecm kind of closes the gate on original heights shown previous.not at all mild and via gp and tamara ete a change of sorts was touted.still not a bad start to winter and many twists and turns to come

[Team Jo]

Guys. Please.....

I don’t need to be moderating willy comments. I’m not without a sense of humour but that stuff is perfect for the banter thread. 

Tonight’s visitor traffic is massive - I’d hate for a newcomer’s first visit to a model discussion thread involve school playground stuff.

thanks! ?

 

[blizzard81]

Don't think the ext ecm ens will look too pretty tonight judging by that day 10 mean.

 

 

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't think the ext ecm ens will look too pretty tonight judging by that day 10 mean.

 

 

Indeed - the extended eps rather disappointing this evening (strong + NAO signal) and to be honest it has been trending in this direction over the last couple of runs.  Let's hope for an improvement tomorrow morning.   

Edited December 7, 2017 by mulzy

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Indeed - the extended eps rather disappointing this evening (strong + NAO signal) and to be honest it has been trending in this direction over the last couple of runs.  Let's hope for an improvement tomorrow morning.   

Yes indeed, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean pattern flattens out towards the end but that could change..plenty of cold wintry weather to come within the reliable timeframe..let's enjoy that and wait and see what happens further down the line...the cheshire gap looks great for snow showers tomorrow and then sunday could be a snow fest for the central southern swathe of the uk.

Edited December 7, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't think the ext ecm ens will look too pretty tonight judging by that day 10 mean.

 

 

Certainly has trended that way. Just the hint of a height rise towards Scandi there.

But it always seems harder for the models to pick up on a pattern change than when the pattern is staying the same. I think we're fairly well at until T192 with the coldish theme, thereafter I think we'll need to wait to see if the PV really will build into Greenland at last.

[snowking]

For the South-East contingent - the ECM Control has an almost identical secondary snowfall event via that channel low for Monday Morning (this stretches up into East Anglia too). In fact, by my counting 29 of the 51 members produce some significant snowfall across southern counties (primarily CS & SE England) from that secondary feature around Monday morning.

The EPS overall still hugely varying on the snowfall line for Sunday, but the consensus remains M4 - M62 for the heaviest falls.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hopefully maybe chance of an 05 Jan '98 snowfest style runner? some of heaviest daytime snow I have seen! need setup further South though, FI mind you