Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[northwestsnow]

Infact EC has rain moving in wed morning for pretty much everyone!!

Anyway- hopefully plenty of snow for as many people as pos before then..

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It shows 15 inches, in the most affected areas.

I’m not great with the colour scale, what it does show is quite significant snowfall/depths even to low levels in N/W Midlands in particular. It’s not been since seen 2013 in that part of the world, I think we may seen an amber warning for snow as quite densely populated regions seem to be affected. You also have to consider it’s been a long time since folk have had to adapt to adverse winter conditions, some indeed young drivers have never experienced it.

Edited December 7, 2017 by Daniel*

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I’m not great with the colour scale, what it does show is quite significant snowfall/depths even to low levels in N/W Midlands in particular. It’s not been since seen 2013 in that part of the world, I think we may seen an amber warning for snow as quite densely populated regions seem to be affected. You also have to consider it’s been a long time since folk have had to adapt to adverse winter conditions, some indeed young drivers have never experienced it.

 

Indeed. Although these charts do overdo it sometimes.

I can't believe I'm chasing a potential snow event 3/4 days away. Most winters in London I could only dream about the sbow that's coming tomorrow!

[ribster]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Infact EC has rain moving in wed morning for pretty much everyone!!

Anyway- hopefully plenty of snow for as many people as pos before then..

Nearly a week away....

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, ribster said:

Nearly a week away....

Yes i know - hence my comment about plenty going on before then

[stewfox]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 

Indeed. Although these charts do overdo it sometimes.

I can't believe I'm chasing a potential snow event 3/4 days away. Most winters in London I could only dream about the sbow that's coming tomorrow!

More likely north of M4. Do you have a high roof top you might see some in the distance. ☺. Although if gfs 06z shows southward correction might be wrong.

Edited December 7, 2017 by stewfox

[Nick F]

Wales, Midlands and parts of N England getting a good pasting according to ARPEGE, such a fine line to shift the risk further north or south, which is possible at this range

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Wales, Midlands and parts of N England getting a good pasting according to ARPEGE, such a fine line to shift the risk further north or south, which is possible at this range

Looks very much like the latest FAX that Nick

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, stewfox said:

More likely north of M4. Do you have a high roof top you might see some in the distance. ☺. Although if gfs 06z shows southward correction might be wrong.

I'm an ex-Londoner. Now in Stoke 

 

Edited December 7, 2017 by MattStoke

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Wales, Midlands and parts of N England getting a good pasting according to ARPEGE, such a fine line to shift the risk further north or south, which is possible at this range

Last time we had this situation it was very accurate. Small changes still possible but that will be close to the result I feel.

 

searching hotels in the midlands and asking what amenities it has and can I have a room with a view? I.e I need to be able to see a lamppost 

Edited December 7, 2017 by That ECM

[karlos1983]

Not a bad run from the ECM out to 216

sorry for my off topic post and model image, in the will it snow  thread! 

As you were 

 

[Frosty.]

I found some good news on the Gfs 00z for those who hate cold and are concerned about the first bumper crop of december daffodils..this run shows milder weather arriving later in FI..see, I'm fair and balanced...are you havin a laff frosty!

[snowice]

Ecm upgrade a lot of snow at 96hrs

Edited December 7, 2017 by snowice

[danthetan]

ECM 12Z yesterday on the left and ECM 0Z looks likes trended south overnight 

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, danthetan said:

ECM 12Z yesterday on the left and ECM 0Z looks likes trended south overnight 

Yes a better wedge of heights near the Greenland to Iceland area pushing the slider a bit further south. 

Expect the track to firm up over the next 24 - 36 hours. Still quite far out in slider terms. Urge caution for those dusting the sledges off and waxing the rails! 

Moving into next week, nasty little low fires up Monday morning on the ECM in the Channel, but uppers nowehere near cold enough for snow. Thereafter we see a northerly flow of types, but never really dragging proper cold in.

 

Edited December 7, 2017 by karlos1983

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, danthetan said:

ECM 12Z yesterday on the left and ECM 0Z looks likes trended south overnight 

You can't compare ecm 0z runs with 12z runs because there is only 1 frame per 24h for ecm, so there is a 12h difference between those frames. If you want to compare you have to compare with yesterday's 0z

[feb1991blizzard]

Another Eps suite intent on bringing the Atlantic through late week 2.

[shotski]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another Eps suite intent on bringing the Atlantic through late week 2.

Where ???

can you post the images. 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another Eps suite intent on bringing the Atlantic through late week 2.

Though yesterday’s 12z was less enthusiastic and yesterday’s 00z was binary clusters of flat zonal and very amplified 

however, this mornings does have a more convincing zonal look to it. Will wait for the clusters 

[West is Best]

25 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Last time we had this situation it was very accurate. Small changes still possible but that will be close to the result I feel.

 

searching hotels in the midlands and asking what amenities it has and can I have a room with a view? I.e I need to be able to see a lamppost 

It's still a long way out for tracking accuracy. More like pinning the tail on a donkey to quote an old, old, poster on here*.  It's likely to track within 200 miles either side and that will make all the difference to some people. It's also perfectly possible that it may track a lot more than 200 miles out from this. I suspect it will go slide south with the amount of deep cold airmass ahead of it.

 

* once Atmos Ferric then Stratos Ferric, then emptiness: where did he go?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Where ???

can you post the images. 

Its best not to as they are 'supposed' to be behind a hefty pay wall and there are 2 reasons, they might stop licensing them to the site I use, or you could find yourself with a law suite for breaking copyright.

[mulzy]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Though yesterday’s 12z was less enthusiastic and yesterday’s 00z was binary clusters of flat zonal and very amplified 

however, this mornings does have a more convincing zonal look to it. Will wait for the clusters 

Indeed though right out at day 14/15, it looks like a reinforcement of a + PNA is happening, pulling the lower heights in the Atlantic back towards Newfoundland.  Way out but something to watch?

Edited December 7, 2017 by mulzy

[snowfish1]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

Terrific ECM - wow. UKMO is okay. GFS not so good in FI but the ensembles are encouraging:

 

 

In the short term, the ECM has the low much further south than the GFS. Form would tend to suggest the ECM is right, not because it's in any way a better model but because lows at that trajectory buffeting against an arctic airmass tend to get pushed further south nearer the event. The risk is actually for it to miss the UK altogether. The secondary development on Monday sees the low galvanising across Paris.

Somewhere is going to be in for an absolute pasting from this on Sunday / Monday. My money would be on southern England but the GFS may be correct with the Midlands northwards getting a hammering. It may turn to rain for a time down south before probably turning back to snow.

Fun and games

 

I can't see that as the low looks too North orientated have u a chart to show your theory please??

[Fiona Robertson]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

That's inches I think 

 That's what he said...

Just out of interest, can someone tie in what the PV is doing with what's happening or going to happen? Help me understand this.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM spreads the main one is to the west sw of the UK upto T144hrs suggesting there’s still room for changes after the first slider.

In terms of the longer range the ensembles do seem more zonal although a small cluster suggest something from the east given the wind directions and associated dew points/temps.

If the PV does eject eastwards then we’re going to need some energy heading se and not just over the top.

Anyway that’s a way out and could still change, lots going on before that.