Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Nick F]

Even with Sunday's low track as far north as 18z GFS, the model shows a little snow in the northerly for SE England as the low clears away, and based on the T+120 fax chart, similar would be true for Monday morning too.

Purely speculative at this stage of course, but these slider lows fortunately will have air cold enough for snow preceding them and following in behind them if you are under or to the south of the track. To the north of the low cold throughout.

Certainly no concerns still for the medium to long range patterns out to day 15/16 from this evenings GFS/GEFS and EC/EPS, the jet driving way south into the medium range, which opens up the door to high latitude blocking - perhaps most likely over Svalbard and Norway - given the tropospheric PV may drift NE from Canada.

[Snowy L]

Meanwhile its a remarkable 14C in several parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland as our low pressure system/ euro high brings Southwesterlies all the way from the equator.

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Even with Sunday's low track as far north as 18z GFS, the model shows a little snow in the northerly for SE England as the low clears away, and based on the T+120 fax chart, similar would be true for Monday morning too.

Purely speculative at this stage of course, but these slider lows fortunately will have air cold enough for snow preceding them and following in behind them if you are under or to the south of the track. To the north of the low cold throughout.

Certainly no concerns still for the medium to long range patterns out to day 15/16 from this evenings GFS/GEFS and EC/EPS, the jet driving way south into the medium range, which opens up the door to high latitude blocking - perhaps most likely over Svalbard and Norway - given the tropospheric PV may drift NE from Canada.

Monday looks good with the 528 line ahead of the front. Also it looks to be moving parallel to the isobars instead of perpindicular. Some lucky areas could be buried if that came off. Anyone at the met office said anything about this?

Edited December 6, 2017 by Snowy L

[BleakMidwinter]

10 minutes ago, Southender said:

To save people time trawling through the tripe on here...18z summary

Midlands north = ??❄️

South of that = ??☔️❄️

Cold for all for quite a while, slightly milder interludes particularly in the south. More snow chances to come, perhaps more interest for Southeners mid-month.

What about "Midlands", though? Do we count as being south of "north of the Midlands" or are we north of "south of the Midlands" or do we get the famed Cheshire Gap streamer on Fri/Sat as shown by the Netweather precip-type charts?

Yrs, Anxious Novice in Shropshire!

Edited December 6, 2017 by BleakMidwinter

[Southender]

Just now, BleakMidwinter said:

What about "Midlands", though? Do we count as being south of "north of the Midlands" or are we "south of the Midlands" or do we get the famed Cheshire Gap streamer on Fri/Sat as shown by the Netweather precip-type charts?

Yrs, Anxious Novice in Shropshire!

Shropshire you say?

Go buy a sledge and enjoy your snow this weekend!

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

What about "Midlands", though? Do we count as being south of "north of the Midlands" or are we "south of the Midlands" or do we get the famed Cheshire Gap streamer on Fri/Sat as shown by the Netweather precip-type charts?

Yrs, Anxious Novice in Shropshire!

Lol   firstly Fridays event  looks good for the midlands at the moment   mainly West Midlands.   Sundays event  taken from the GFS run is marginal  the Ecm has us under heavy snow   pop into the regional

Edited December 6, 2017 by weirpig

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

GFS actually brings a second sleet/snow event on Monday over the Eastern half of the country and you can see the offending front on the FAX chart tonight

 

I might have dug my self out in time for this to bury me again... some truly outstanding output tonight and if things tick down nicely we could be looking at a very cold spell lasting way into the month, is it possible for the Euro trough to stick around for as long as the Euro high did last winter??

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, Southender said:

To save people time trawling through the tripe on here...18z summary

Midlands north = ??❄️

South of that = ??☔️❄️

Cold for all for quite a while, slightly milder interludes particularly in the south. More snow chances to come, perhaps more interest for Southeners mid-month.

Tripe ?? I think it's been rather good in here last few days . The only tripe is this post I'm quoting ?. If the GFS 18z comes off then this will be a proper wintery spell for a couple off weeks . Look at these temps and there max temps . 

[Nick L]

Hi-res models such as UKV and Euro4 have plenty of snow showers piling in through the Midlands overnight on Thursday and into Friday. UKV even has snow showers getting towards London. Could be some decent accumulations through Shropshire and Staffordshire.

[Southender]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Tripe ?? I think it's been rather good in here last few days . The only tripe is this post I'm quoting ?. If the GFS 18z comes off then this will be a proper wintery spell for a couple off weeks . Look at these temps and there max temps . 

Tripe as in some of the petty snipes, the north v south battle etc. I wasn’t referring to the output which is pretty exciting for a change. So Thanks for adding your tuppence ??

[The Enforcer]

First edition of Sliderwatch:

T+120:

 

Recommended Changes:

 

T+96:

 

Analysis: Slider has moved South, mild sector reduced a bit and has an improved negative tilt.

Edited December 6, 2017 by The Enforcer

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Hi-res models such as UKV and Euro4 have plenty of snow showers piling in through the Midlands overnight on Thursday and into Friday. UKV even has snow showers getting towards London. Could be some decent accumulations through Shropshire and Staffordshire.

Not so much Black Country then!

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Hi-res models such as UKV and Euro4 have plenty of snow showers piling in through the Midlands overnight on Thursday and into Friday. UKV even has snow showers getting towards London. Could be some decent accumulations through Shropshire and Staffordshire.

Nick Miller after the news showing as such too + GFS showing decent penetration inland of showers on the strong NWly across England on Friday:

Anyway, on another note, London 12z EC ens in and shows the det close to the mean - which itself stays below 5C right through to the 21st - which is good to see.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Nick Miller after the news showing as such too + GFS showing decent penetration inland of showers on the strong NWly across England on Friday:

Anyway, on another note, London 12z EC ens in and shows the det close to the mean - which itself stays below 5C right through to the 21st - which is good to see.

Some seriously cold members in the mix now Nick! With decent support!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Nick Miller after the news showing as such too + GFS showing decent penetration inland of showers on the strong NWly across England on Friday:

Anyway, on another note, London 12z EC ens in and shows the det close to the mean - which itself stays below 5C right through to the 21st - which is good to see.

And now on the short range hi-res models too.

[bobbydog]

right... i'm feeling a bit 'down' tonight, nothing to do with the weather, no particular reason really, not like me to feel down but i just do.

however, the output points to many areas having some serious snowfall, more than we've had for a good few years. personally, my area probably won't see much if any (yet...) but some will have a snowfest! if you dont get any now, its nobody's fault, thats how it goes- but let those who do get some, enjoy it.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

right... i'm feeling a bit 'down' tonight, nothing to do with the weather, no particular reason really, not like me to feel down but i just do.

however, the output points to many areas having some serious snowfall, more than we've had for a good few years. personally, my area probably won't see much if any (yet...) but some will have a snowfest! if you dont get any now, its nobody's fault, thats how it goes- but let those who do get some, enjoy it.

Good shout B-Dog! Happy for those that get the good stuff! Chin up 

[Sparkiee storm]

14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not so much Black Country then!

I reckon we will see a good dumping over the Black Country too, because to be fair ive noticed when anyone or forecasters mention Staffordshire and/or Shropshire, we seem to see similar conditions too, so we will see, only 24hrs to go .

And there's always Sunday and beyond adding to the possibilities according to the models :).

[Justin Miller]

I’m a proper newbie to the forecasting side of the weather or analysing charts, could someone either PM more or help me get started, thanks 

 

Justin 

[sorepaw1]

8 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

right... i'm feeling a bit 'down' tonight, nothing to do with the weather, no particular reason really, not like me to feel down but i just do.

however, the output points to many areas having some serious snowfall, more than we've had for a good few years. personally, my area probably won't see much if any (yet...) but some will have a snowfest! if you dont get any now, its nobody's fault, thats how it goes- but let those who do get some, enjoy it.

It's good to talk very admiral to post it.

Hope you feel better soon... 

I'm sure according to the 18z you'll be able to have an early morning walk in the snow next week or sooner .

 

 

[ICE COLD]

I no ensembles can flip in an instance but it's fair to say they are in pretty good agreement out to about the 19th or 20th of Dec . Not often you see this . 

Edit : And the 2m temps that is pretty cold throughout and that's for London so even colder elsewhere. 

Edited December 7, 2017 by ICE COLD
Added chart

[Duane S.]

An hour and half later and finally caught up! Exhausting work all this...

Safe to say today has been a very good news day in terms of the chances of this becoming a memorable cold spell. Both snow-wise and in duration. 

A absolutely fantastic post earlier by Tamara as well earlier on. Intriguing stuff!

Also, I really don't think some people have any concept quite HOW little snow places like where I live get. We will go, quite literally, for years on end without seeing a single flake floating in the air. There is no such this as a poor snowfall down here. ANY fall of snow is good! ? Waking up to a dusting, the ones where you still aren't sure if it isn't just a heavy frost, is equivalent to 6 inches settling in low lying Birmingham. The good news with this however, expectations are always rock bottom, so when it does happen it just makes it that much better ? 

That said, with the atmospheric state as it currently is, even I would be surprised, and a tad gutted, if I didn't get a good dumping at some point this winter ❄️ 

[JBMWeatherForever]

Over the last 48 hours the ensembles seem to be have been trending downwards. The cold seems to be lengthening too. A long spell of cold/very cold weather now seems highly likely and with no end in sight.  Also nothing to suggest the trend won't continue. We seem to be at the beginning of what may end up being a classic spell of winter weather ! 

Edited December 7, 2017 by JBMWeatherForever

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

right... i'm feeling a bit 'down' tonight, nothing to do with the weather, no particular reason really, not like me to feel down but i just do.

however, the output points to many areas having some serious snowfall, more than we've had for a good few years. personally, my area probably won't see much if any (yet...) but some will have a snowfest! if you dont get any now, its nobody's fault, thats how it goes- but let those who do get some, enjoy it.

For what it's worth, love your contributions here. I appreciate you big time! Keep it up!

[BlackburnChris]

4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Good shout B-Dog! Happy for those that get the good stuff! Chin up 

Personally I'm in NW England and in the warming area., but don't hold out much hope Fri/Sat .. but previously living in Leicester , I will say the Cheshire gap showers can get a lot furter East than the gfs currently shows....