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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

It’s ok, we have 24/7 electricity and toilets inside down south 

You sure do and thats fantastic! !!:yahoo:.im sure it will still be major news tho lol.changes a foot on the 18z tho and maybe know crippling town centre meltdowns

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The brilliant model watching continues, nothing is nailed as yet for the weekend but a better run for the northern contingent here.  Superb charts at 168 with heights building both towards Greenland and eastern Scandi, it's looking like all routes lead to cold at the moment!  Time as always will tell...

gfsnh-0-162.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
3 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

What on earth is going on there? It's like a conga line!

It’s a Greenland streamer!!?

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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

When the slider moves in would decent lying snow cover (ie snow from Thursday/Friday event in NW Ireland) effect the air temps enough to increase the chances of snow falling? Looks like we are on a real knife edge regarding snowfall on Sunday. 

Although anything on Sunday will be a bonus alongside the upcoming PM shot. Certainly eases the slider stress! :D

 

Btw, big thanks to all the contributers here as always. I've picked up some real good model reading info on slider events.

Edited by Sperrin
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Great chart again..

Triple whamy on the vortex..

Waa@ western seabord/-partial-greenland/and eye catching russian warmth...

And a tri-lobe vortex...

Hard to think of better specifics going deeper -december!!

gfsnh-0-210.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Sematic detail aside for the slider - the long term cold is certainly gaining momentum with all 3 models going past 192 - ( GEM / ECM & GFS ) promoting a 3 prong attack on the pole & deep troughing in NW europe- this may ease back NEasterly in time... If cold spell starts tomorrow then protracted length is aready progged at 10 days...

Steve some of the minima under that slack scandy trough will be really low under snowcover -shortest week of the year- week before christmas-

yes please.

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21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Steve some of the minima under that slack scandy trough will be really low under snowcover -shortest week of the year- week before christmas-

yes please.

Yes - there will be a lull of cold uppers for about 3-4 days - but as long as the flow is slack then very cold overnight -

CET about 1.5 - 2c midmonth on these runs...

PS updated 96 fax is reasonable - especially for my elevation getting on 150-160 M

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Hot off the press, the updated t+96 chart for the crucial 12z Sunday timeframe, similar or a little further south to the18z GFS?

PPVM89.thumb.gif.4807bcb13cb89427f1985540ef053fbf.gif

Here is where it ends up.I would say it tracked through heart of England

fax96s.gif

 

fax120s.gif

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

I don't no if it's me but the 18z looks an absolute cracker so far for cold prospect going forward thru the mid to long range.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - there will be a lull of cold uppers for about 3-4 days - but as long as the flow is slack then very cold overnight -

CET about 1.5 - 2c midmonth on these runs...

PS updated 96 fax is reasonable - especially for my elevation getting on 150-160 M

Mate if the GFS 18z comes of it will be a very good cold spell , the best for years and it's getting even colder at 288 hrs . Get in there my son ?. 

IMG_0729.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

18z giving us a December to remember!!

Cold still going strong on the 19th !!

Yes the 18z is cold all the way after tomorrow's mild mush is chased away, very blocky cold cyclonic with snow, ice and frosts featuring very strongly according to this run and indeed earlier output!..great ?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z giving us a December to remember!!

Cold still going strong on the 19th !!

Make that the 21st mate the cold just keeps coming ?

IMG_0730.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Looking at the current 18z GFS. its  looking pretty amazing for most of the uk for potential snowfall. 

I think theres going to be a news headline there next week. 

Low pressure dominant all next week. 

Happy days. I'm just going with the flow i aren't even going to try to predict how much and where. I just know we're all in for something excuse my lack of detail. 

I aren't disappointed with the 18z.

More so if I lived down south but I don't. 

I live in a log cabin on the North Yorkshire Moors 474ft ASL. 

Also have a subaru 4X4.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
1 minute ago, sorepaw1 said:

Looking at the current 18z GFS. its  looking pretty amazing for most of the uk for potential snowfall. 

I think theres going to be a news headline there next week. 

Low pressure dominant all next week. 

Happy days. I'm just going with the flow i aren't even going to try to predict how much and where. I just know we're all in for something excuse my lack of detail. 

I aren't disappointed with the 18z.

More so if I lived down south but I don't. 

I live in a log cabin on the North Yorkshire Moors 474ft ASL. 

Also have a subaru 4X4.

Might be better off with a snowmobile or a team of huskys if the gfs 18z is right

IMG_3629.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 minute ago, tynevalleysnow said:

Might be better off with a snowmobile or a team of huskys if the gfs 18z is right

IMG_3629.PNG

Yes that looks very impressive if noticed on the last couple of runs more so on the 18z that area of high pressure to our West pushed further West and weakening. 

All in all a good show .

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

GFS actually brings a second sleet/snow event on Monday over the Eastern half of the country and you can see the offending front on the FAX chart tonight

 

fax120s.gif.0473272dcdefdf6326dc23021112

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
27 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Hot off the press, the updated t+96 chart for the crucial 12z Sunday timeframe, similar or a little further south to the18z GFS?

PPVM89.thumb.gif.4807bcb13cb89427f1985540ef053fbf.gif

Looks a bit further south than the 18z to my untrained eye?

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