Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I hate bringing a word of caution re. FI on the GFS, but ...

I'd like to see a lot more agreement for the cold. However, ECM is great so here's hoping. Meanwhile, a tasty cold weekend brewing here

 

You are never going to get a clean cut through the ens out to the end,and they look pretty good flatlining(majority)>-5

anyway,news just in and nothing has changed from prev days wave 5 pattern

 

 

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

No BOM in those stats 

BOM is the gold standard they use to be compared with by the other models. It always has a perfect 1.00 score.

 

[damianslaw]

Lots of discussion about prospects for Sunday, but I would concentrate on the nearer timeframe first, i.e. 48 hrs, and look at the FAX charts. Signs we could see some trough features embedded within the arctic flow, which would increase risk of snow for many come Friday morning - nevermind having to wait until Sunday to see some. 

Always the case of nowcasting when it comes to snow, especially when low pressure anchors in from the west and hits cold surface air , slider lows are notoriously difficult to predict until well within the reliable - 36 hrs tops, so with that it won't be until Friday evening at the earliest we can say with any certainty where the progged low will track, thats 48 hrs away and therefore expect lots more variation from the models in the coming runs - it will be an exhausting ideal if we all latch onto every model between then and now, speculation wasted conjecture I say.

Longer term - once again GFS and ECM toying with height rises to the NE as we edge closer to christmas all thanks to amplification of the flow, and a deep longwave trough in the NE USA/E Canada holding sway.

 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

You are never going to get a clean cut through the ens out to the end,and they look pretty good flatlining(majority)>-5

anyway,news just in and nothing has changed from prev days wave 5 pattern

 

 

Thanks for this - a rare sight indeed, when did we last see a classic 5 wave pattern - I can't remember, long time that cold in east USA/E canada has also occured with cold here.

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

You are never going to get a clean cut through the ens out to the end,and they look pretty good flatlining(majority)>-5

anyway,news just in and nothing has changed from prev days wave 5 pattern

 

 

@rossby waves!..

Tut-tar mr jet!....

Anyway much lies ahead' and like a broken record!..

Pointless atm of exacting on the first slider incoming .@occlusion/placement/overhead bearings.

This is a wide open as they come(and usualy are)!.

1-things for almost certain some will be making the news -weekend-early next week!??..

Fridays all round suites are the defining line for me...

Meantime try to gage' some definition on the incoming wintry weather....

And chill a tad!!?

Edited December 6, 2017 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM eps are an absolute stonker and an upgrade on the 0z upto around D10-12, after that there is still a euro trough but it gets pushed much further south and east and is weaker than it was a few runs ago but there is signs of a height rise between Greenland and Scandi which ties in with a growing signal in the GEFS extended of a 'Murr sausage'

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, igloo said:

is this 4 inches falling or 4 inches lying as they are completely different not every flake lies obviously please  people dont get carried away with computer generated maps of snow cover many people will disiponted when they turn out wrong 

No its lying, although looking at snowkings graphic, they could have been lying in another sense!!!  They do look well overdone those charts.

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No its lying, although looking at snowkings graphic, they could have been lying in another sense!!!  They do look well overdone those charts.

Overdone?

Certainly not a lot of moisture is associated with these slider lows typically somewhere gets a good dumping. 

[Thunder Snow]

ment to post in regional

Edited December 6, 2017 by Thunder Snow

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Overdone?

Certainly not a lot of moisture is associated with these slider lows typically somewhere gets a good dumping. 

Yep, it’s not your typical slider coming up against a block that sucks the moisture out of the system, somewhere is going to get a serious dumping!!! Still to be resolved where, Oxfordshire somewhere is my bet.

[Man With Beard]

Here's another ramp!! 

Looked through the ensembles for ECM - by T240, almost all have between 50% and 80% of the UK covered in a lot snow (in varying combinations)

Remember the date: 16th December

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Overdone?

Certainly not a lot of moisture is associated with these slider lows typically somewhere gets a good dumping. 

I'm talking the ones on weather.us, they have been showing ridiculous snowfall totals over the last 7 or 8 runs.

[snowfish1]

Is the gfs  output likely to verify compared to ukmo then Steve and if so what does that mean for Kent?

[snowbob]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yep, it’s not your typical slider coming up against a block that sucks the moisture out of the system, somewhere is going to get a serious dumping!!! Still to be resolved where, Oxfordshire somewhere is my bet.

Bit further east in biggin Hill will do nicely

mate

18z should help with the correction.

if it’s south again that’s a small trend

if it’s north I give up till th 0z

Edited December 6, 2017 by snowbob

[winterof79]

OH NO on the 18z  at  6h the Greenland high bone has connected to the Scottish low bone which can only mean the sliding snow fest will track into the Bay of Biscay which will mean the jet fires up and the blo torch westerlys pick up and we all BBQ for xmas ..........Does it not?

Medic 

Edited December 6, 2017 by winterof79

[weirpig]

well  the event Friday has a few hot spots under snow for hours on end.  even if it were 1 flake an hour  people would still have a covering.   Now for the slider

[Allseasons-Si]

A great read from Tamara's post earlier and deserves more credit with the regards to the weather upcoming the Christmas period and beyond and i do hope this is right,are we going to see a memorable winter,well based on the background signals we are in a more favourable position,but we say this every year lol

after reading that and i suspect the majority on here was very exited,i was

 

 

[igloo]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No its lying, although looking at snowkings graphic, they could have been lying in another sense!!!  They do look well overdone those charts.

well i hope its on the conservative side of things and its even HIGHER more southern and flatter areas deserve something better after 3 years of dross after last weeks 5 inches lying for 5 days here a further 10 would cheer me up nicely it can lay here for weeks on end the best of luck

[Met4Cast]

Is it just me or is meteociel going incredibly slow?

[Nick F]

37 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM eps are an absolute stonker and an upgrade on the 0z upto around D10-12, after that there is still a euro trough but it gets pushed much further south and east and is weaker than it was a few runs ago but there is signs of a height rise between Greenland and Scandi which ties in with a growing signal in the GEFS extended of a 'Murr sausage'

Would be good to see the Euro trough extend further east if we were to get an easterly further down the line, as over the next few days there is a lot of WAA pumping up across Wern Russia and eastern Europe the source region for an easterly. It's all very good having an easterly, but you need the source to be cold. Strong southerly jet tracking into western Europe to the south of the UK next week may help extend the  Euro trough south and east though. Anyone notice nasty deepening low moving across France Monday on EC?

Anyway, that's too far off in the future, snow shower watching Friday and Saturday, slider low with snow threat watching on Sunday ... more than enough to concentrate on for now.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Nick F

[karlos1983]

Just now, Danny* said:

Is it just me or is meteociel going incredibly slow?

I thought it was my 4G 

netweather crashes meteociel!! Lol

[Day 10]

Just now, Danny* said:

Is it just me or is meteociel going incredibly slow?

Yeh same here nothing loading

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I normally find meteociel, earlier/quicker than netweather for GFS model runs

[weirpig]

yes very slow.  a touch North maybe  at 78  

[karlos1983]

I’ll be the first to admit, the 18z is further north than the 12z. Hmmm

early days though 

Edited December 6, 2017 by karlos1983