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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nescafe....

The models are smelling the coffee them:D

eps trickling out now,and at 96 hrs,neg tilted trough,looks good to me:)

EDH1-96.GIF?06-0EDU1-96.GIF?06-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
12 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Interestingly the NetWx-MR takes it way, wayyy South into the S Midlands, SE England and Central Southern England

Bank.thumb.png.e6ddc6bd9218b927740715a44e289aa9.png

I'll be banking that one, sorry for those up Norf

 

Anywhere from midland Ireland to South England  could get a dumping depending on the track.Can't wait for the pub run :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.

‘Slider lows’ usually bring a rise in temperatures,especially so from the North West.Polar lows are more trustworthy in bringing snow when embedded in a Northerly and usually only in January/February.This ‘slider low’ may contradict my comment,I hope so.The main point is the models are all in agreement of it’s genesis.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Do you know how west yorkshire fairs?

About 4 inches, maybe nearer to 6 in parts but an increasing number miss altogether now to the south although still more runs that at least give a decent covering than don't.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
5 minutes ago, snowice said:

Anywhere from midland Ireland to South England  could get a dumping depending on the track.Can't wait for the pub run :cold:

Spot on. Anyone calling this now is brave. You cannot rule out central southern england or the south east,or further north, maybe the far southwest is a bit to far, but there’s definitely more twists in this yet! 

It is still Entirely plausible it misses completely 

Knife-edge sums it up quite nicely 

If you live somewhere around Oxford, I’d be feeling ever so slightly comfortable, but still be twitchy. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The models are smelling the coffee them:D

eps trickling out now,and at 96 hrs,neg tilted trough,looks good to me:)

EDH1-96.GIF?06-0EDU1-96.GIF?06-0

Oh damn.. suddenly those South of the M4 are back in the game!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Hot off the press..actually cold off the press is more appropriate:santa-emoji: I give you tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean which I must say, looks full of cold wintry weather!:D

ECMAVGEU12_24_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_48_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_72_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_96_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, snowking said:

For anybody wanting to know ECMWF snow depths:

https://twitter.com/weather_king/status/938505344296382464

DQY9nqbWkAApxbR.jpg

So lovely of them to put a "0" bang on top of my house, how very thoughtful.

Stonking ECM mean!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
29 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Interestingly the NetWx-MR takes it way, wayyy South into the S Midlands, SE England and Central Southern England

Bank.thumb.png.e6ddc6bd9218b927740715a44e289aa9.png

I'll be banking that one, sorry for those up Norf

 

This is turning into quite the saga...lol

north v south v midlands v -insert posters back yard location- haha. (Though I'm good with the netwx model ;) ) 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
8 minutes ago, snowking said:

For anybody wanting to know ECMWF snow depths:

https://twitter.com/weather_king/status/938505344296382464

DQY9nqbWkAApxbR.jpg

Jesus!!!that is one heck of a pummeling across central england!!now another day something showing at 102 hours from now would be a definate but not this time!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Sancerre.
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd
18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Out of a 50 member suite, every single one gives you some sort of snow, the vast majority give you a moderate to heavy fall and some a severe fall.

Thanks Feb - I'll re-evaluate my reliance on yr.no when I haven't got the time to trawl MC.

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

About 4 inches, maybe nearer to 6 in parts but an increasing number miss altogether now to the south although still more runs that at least give a decent covering than don't.

is this 4 inches falling or 4 inches lying as they are completely different not every flake lies obviously please  people dont get carried away with computer generated maps of snow cover many people will disiponted when they turn out wrong :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

You can't keep all of the people happy all of the time...How to navigate snowy weather 101.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like the snow wars have started! :D

These sliders always end in  a fracture in relations between those in the high risk versus low risk area!

If the cold can hang on for a couple of weeks hopefully everyone will get to see some snow.

Peace!  :cold-emoji:

My hope is that entrenched cold will live long and prosper..it has a good chance I would say judging by the better cold runs we have seen today..:santa-emoji::D

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Eps 15 dayer is looking prety similar to what we have next week, if it turns out that way anyone living at a higher elevation midlands north could look like Buffalo!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire

to my untrained eye it seems as if us in the far west of wales (Milford Haven etc) will be missing out on these events?

 

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Right enough of this shameless ramping! :D

I’d advise people remain cautious and not start picking out hats for the snowman till the track of the slider and depth of cold gets within T48 hrs.

The same thing happened with the GFS super blizzard which met a tragic end.

I know it’s hard and it’s exciting because snow has been so rare in recent winters but   I have several counselors off on holiday at the moment and the NW helpline simply won’t cope if it goes pear shaped ! :cold-emoji:

And besides it can take hours to sweep up the toys :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Right enough of this shameless ramping! :D

I’d advise people remain cautious and not start picking out hats for the snowman till the track of the slider and depth of cold gets within T48 hrs.

The same thing happened with the GFS super blizzard which met a tragic end.

I know it’s hard and it’s exciting because snow has been so rare in recent winters but I have several counselors off on holiday at the moment and the NW helpline simply won’t cope if it goes pear shaped ! :cold-emoji:

Ha ha everybody needs to take it run by run,step by step,day by day let's just enjoy the ride.

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