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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Gem further north . Uppers not great either . Still learning so happy to be corrected.

F811BA79-7E5E-48D5-AD17-63B64CBFF88E.png

DF740A8F-B704-47BE-8602-9E505DECDC8A.png

2DA8783A-8BF3-42FB-8C2F-9CC9086291AA.png

F4EEDA2F-1578-4AA8-A7D8-6AFC8FED70E4.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs is currently the odd man out on Sundays frontal placement 

icon, ukmo and gem are pretty well in the same place which is prettybwell in line with 00z output 

Yes Blue- GEM joins UKMET having the low further north..but i do think there will be changes to come..:)

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

12z Arpege suggests snow for the Pennines into Northern England and Scottish Borders;

arpegeeur-0-99.thumb.png.5b082138a918a5af2936f8407ca49eb2.png

Wet south of this.

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, AWD said:

12z Arpege suggests snow for the Pennines into Northern England and Scottish Borders;

arpegeeur-0-99.thumb.png.5b082138a918a5af2936f8407ca49eb2.png

Wet south of this.

Yes apart from GFS the 12z runs are very very wet for most south of manchester- from what i can make out..

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

gfs 192- looks bloody amazing!!

204 looks even better. :) Uppers frustratingly poor at that time but it's 200 hours away so no point stressing about that now.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

There is scope for slow moving convective snow showers/streamers too for next week.Be it off the Irish Sea or the North sea as the lows fill.The air will be colder than suggested by then on top of the slider low potential

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

If little height rises over Greenland will determine the path of the slider, there will be a long way to go till this is resolved!

Anyway the effects of higher SLP over Greenland are evident later on>

image.thumb.png.2356d093f163ef9ca7e256a75680d734.png

Cracking run but more support needed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

GFS going for a stonker.

Yes, if the GFS is anything to go by it's going to be absolutely bitter next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
10 minutes ago, warrenb said:

GFS going for a stonker.

The GFS most ably illustrating exactly why FI is called FI....

06Z gfsnh-0-252.png?6  12Z gfsnh-0-240.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
17 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gem further north . Uppers not great either . Still learning so happy to be corrected.

Deleted your charts to save on scrolling :) Just answering about the GEM and uppers. GEM tends to overdo the uppers, or so I've seen said by members more knowledgeable than me.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

So the event is just 4 days away, what have we got...

gfs-0-96.png?12   UW96-21.GIF?06-17   gem-0-96.png?12

Still variation between the outputs in terms of where that low will track, the GFS (left) is the further south whilst the GEM (right) is the furthest north. With the evolution being so delicate I suspect it maybe Saturday when we find out the track as it is the nature of the initial ridge shearing away which will determine the path the jetstream will take as it goes underneath weak heights to the north.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

The run up to Chrimbo looks very nice on the GFS 12z - Just for fun but still nice to look at it.

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