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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

The difference between the 18z yesterday and the 12z of today. 

IMG_2590.PNG

IMG_2583.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

at +96 the centre of the low is in exactly the same position as the 06z 

gfs-0-102.thumb.png.21fdb049ee2e27dfaff3caad3df994b3.pnggfs-0-96.thumb.png.907e4aa3882032f4434838e26de70974.png

With less mild 850's in the mix

gfs-1-102.thumb.png.291e028194f6ff6edfde6589c671ee53.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.03b30c18d61a2ca0d274b708c64bd808.png

UKMO is different at +96 however. Nothing yet resolved 

UN96-21.thumb.gif.333c0561d58e37e5d3b6e275cfef91c2.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Clear difference between yesterday 12z UKMO and today’s. 

GFS very similar to 6z.

1B6C4FC2-F7AA-4284-A80E-DF1331AAA25B.gif

0BEC8DF6-5BA4-4748-A1BB-2F624F57411A.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

UKMO at 96h. Quite different and less defined than GFS.

UN96-21_kfe8.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

UKMO takes heights much higher in the Atlantic by GFS and has different alignment over the UK, probably lead to major differences in later frames.

UN120-21_lzs4.GIF

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Hmmmm I mentioned in previous posts how the arctic high may start to influence Greenland and its shown in recent runs....

                          06z                                                      12z

image.thumb.png.a2e7e3901491eee61ec604f22213abf8.pngimage.thumb.png.94723a5d843b5efb882ed66b5fe94099.png 

It's a very subtle change but its why that slider is moving a little further south. It may keep milder air a little further away or keep the UK slightly colder.

If it becomes a bigger player then I may have a few more scenarios to draw :D.

Either way snow is better then no snow and I'd be happy to accept the early results of this forecast. :)
 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

At t120 gfs, forgetting the slider for a mo. Look at the heights building to the north and sharper height rises to the north east. Some thing to keep an eye because if this were to become a trend future runs will be very good.

IMG_0167.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

The GFS 06z was starting to have a Westerly component by T+132. That is not the case on the 12z - remaining very much from a Northerly quadrant. 

Edit: Compare the 06z to the 12z for midnight  on this coming Tuesday. 

IMG_8484.PNG

IMG_8485.PNG

Edited by Paul_1978
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

UKMO 96h 850's

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

suggests the low tracks quite a bit further north than gfs..:wallbash:

Dont think this low will be resolved until tomorrow, perhaps friday..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

GFS 12z a pretty weak effort snow-wise compared to previous runs. More of a smattering rather than anything disruptive apart from maybe Central Wales.102-780UK_zqi3.GIF

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Just now, Mokidugway said:

Some wild weather pre cold onslaught,hope our Scottish cousins have battened down the hatches 

I agree, yes there is snow in the forecast, but Scotland is going take a real battering before that.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, radiohead said:

You can see on the regional UK view that it's further north than the GFS 

Yes it is, which potentially means more people in the mild sector!!

Hope GFS is correct for those in the midlands and further south :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Second slider Wednesday much further south on this run too

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 12Z continues to look really good- signs of amplification in the Atlantic at 162

gfsnh-0-162.png?12

Definitely a much more promising pattern. We just need to tap into some colder air.

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Anyhow here we are with this afternoon's run and it's as you were with the most likely areas to get snow from this slider, notice how the areas likely to be effected are a thin wedge

 

gfs-2-102.png?12

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

UKMO 144z Has another possible snow maker incoming

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

UKMO 144z Has another possible snow maker incoming

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Yes the 144 chart looks good - no idea about the 96 hr - 120 hr progression tho, bit concerned about the uppers at 96..

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