Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The thing about a sw shift is it isn’t such a bad thing for the Scottish contingent as it keeps them in deeper cold longer with snowfall likely anyway 

looking beyond the first slider I would say the recent trend is for the second one to correct a long way north and its possible that a movement south in the overall pattern early on could bear more fruit later on aswell 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfs-0-102.png?6 gfs-0-108.png?6

If you're new to the slider craziness, well this is how it tends to go with sizeable shifts one way then the other which may continue for another 2 or even 3 days yet.
Sun-Mon is proving a forecasting nightmare, but you could say, 'nicer problems to have' :laugh:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

A further correction south on the 06z, this is mad, will miss us completely by 12z at this rate!:crazy::D

gfs-0-102.png

gfs-1-102.png

gfs-2-108.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

yes has a few have said a huge correction south west on this run.  going from this run The midlands is the Northerly edge.  Of course this run is as likely to veryfy as the last run.  Still plenty of time for  it to adjust either way.  My opinion is  it well track further North   either way interesting viewing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

If this is what it’s done this far out it’s more than likely going to miss the whole of the British Isles at this rate! I hope I’m wrong but we’ve been here before..

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfs-0-132.png gfs-0-126.png?6

Liking the removal of the ridge here as with a cold trough in such a position stretching from SE to NE of the UK, shortwaves cutting through are more friend than foe... :good:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

gfs-0-102.png?6 gfs-0-108.png?6

If you're new to the slider craziness, well this is how it tends to go with sizeable shifts one way then the other which may continue for another 2 or even 3 days yet.
Sun-Mon is proving a forecasting nightmare, but you could say, 'nicer problems to have' :laugh:

Then it gets to the day and it's still radar watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just to add that the reasons for the southward correction come quite early in the run over the Atlantic 

Is this newer data or just a gfs op run doing what Gfs op runs sometimes do

need to wait for the twelves to find out although some of the lesser models do have a five day 06z run !

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
14 hours ago, markw2680 said:

Why are people so fascinated about Sunday and after? What about the cold few days before hand? Just enjoy them and then see where we stand come Saturday, after all it’s only Tuesday so things will change probably quite a lot before the BIG day!! Relax a tad

I posted this a few days ago along with other people saying it will correct sw, there’s still going to be more changes as it is still only Wednesday so let’s enjoy Caroline and the cold after first ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I'm liking the 6z moving the snow boundary south . Means I'm gonna get some snow in Hertfordshire. Like people have said it will probably miss all together . 

IMG_0725.PNG

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
13 hours ago, abbie123 said:

I don't think this a done deal yet with rain sleet and snow Sunday in to Monday history tells me the  whole lot could be pushed south and west we'll see how in all pans out next  couple days .   Before then we a Wintery weekend to come .

THE CHANCE OF SNOW IS INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just to add that the reasons for the southward correction come quite early in the run over the Atlantic 

Is this newer data or just a gfs op run doing what Gfs op runs sometimes do

need to wait for the twelves to find out although some of the lesser models do have a five day 06z run !

 

Big shift south on the ICON 06z, not as far south as GFS but close. ICON tends to follow the ECM idea by the way. Here are the two PPN charts, 00z and 06z for comparison.

icon-0-120.png

icon-2-120.png

icon-2-126.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just to add that the reasons for the southward correction come quite early in the run over the Atlantic 

Is this newer data or just a gfs op run doing what Gfs op runs sometimes do

need to wait for the twelves to find out although some of the lesser models do have a five day 06z run !

 

Having just trawled through the individual EPS members, a not insignificant 15 out of 51 members have a track similar to that of the 6z GFS as of 0z - the median position though remains through Wales and The Midlands, with the 'median envelope' (if that is a thing) roughly between the M4 and the M62 - if you take it from the basis of the EPS, the Det and Control were too far north with the system this morning.

With that in mind, the 6z GFS still represents one of the minority tracks, but one not without support. The clever money is still currently a little further north of this though...for now

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Anyone spot the ICON for Monday morning?

iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png?06-11 

WOW!!!:shok::yahoo:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

THE CHANCE OF SNOW IS INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH 

Alright, no need to scream :laugh:

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?6 gfsnh-0-180.png

At this range the details are of little concern but it is of note how the Pacific ridge is not as sharp on this run (left chart) which increases the risk of the Canadian trough breaking loose. On the other hand, the seed for the deep trough is shallower and more stretched out which makes me wonder if that will evolve into such a 'pushy' system.

Given the 00z ECM this is just speculation with respect to this particular run (for the fun of it, if I'm honest!).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

We are now within the timeframe (T120) where the ops verify better than the ens mean on heights. 

But the eps running at 14km are a very good tool compared to a few years ago 

i am intrigued by the second feature which is now consistently modelled to approach on a more west to east basis rather than sliding or diving 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
1 minute ago, sausage said:

so were looking at such amazing wintry synoptics that look as though once again they will provide us with nothing much in the way of snow again. what do we have to do in this country to get allround snow!!

???? do you have a chart for that

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
5 minutes ago, sausage said:

so were looking at such amazing wintry synoptics that look as though once again they will provide us with nothing much in the way of snow again. what do we have to do in this country to get allround snow!!

Don't be a silly sausage.

It's still too soon to say where and how much snow there will be.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

06z GFS keeps the secondary low dropping SE on Sunday completely separate from the parent low wallowing around the Norwegian Sea further north, hence it has its 'freedom' to wander further south on this run. Look at the frames on the EC and UKMO det. run and Sunday's slider low merges with the low to the north (which loses its identity eventually) - perhaps this merger with the other low tending to pull it on a more northerly track than GFS.

The tracking of this low wouldn't normally be so fixating if there wasn't cold air entrenched before it arrives! My money's on a more northerly track like the 00z, but I would love to be proved wrong!

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...