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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was under the impression wnw was absolutely the best direction for us- i think at minimum we will get a couple of cm...

WNW is but this veers very quickly to near a N'ly, we might get a couple of cm, maybe more than an inch.

NW is still decent but we are more sheltered than you would think because of being that extra 12 miles East than M'cr and by the topography to the NW, its actually suprising but I do really well out of Easterlies when 8 miles west generally get jack

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WNW is but this veers very quickly to near a N'ly, we might get a couple of cm, maybe more than an inch.

meto has it west turning wnw all through thursday night- only changing NW friday.

Sunday could potentially be an incredibly snowy day acc to GFS- 

The hills will get plastered- just need EC on board - overnight runs are a big upgrade - GFS/UKMO/GEM are all good ..

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

meto has it west turning wnw all through thursday night- only changing NW friday.

Sunday could potentially be an incredibly snowy day acc to GFS- 

The hills will get plastered- just need EC on board - overnight runs are a big upgrade - GFS/UKMO/GEM are all good ..

What about Stoke for the Cheshire Gap streamer? I haven't lived here long enough to know what the chances are here from such a setup. Stoke does normally seem to get snow from a NW'ly or WNW'ly but the models show little to nothing here.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Downgrade for Sunday with everything shifted slightly south and west. However this does allow for the coldest air to sit further south. The precipitation is slightly less. Any further shifts west and south could eventually le ave most of us dry and cold. One to keep an eye on. Possibly a slightly colder run over all.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

What about Stoke for the Cheshire Gap streamer? I haven't lived here long enough to know what the chances are here from such a setup. Stoke does normally seem to get snow from a NW'ly or WNW'ly but the models show little to nothing here.

Im no expert but i think you will get snow thur night into friday, i'm sure meto will update later- maybe GFS is overdoing the precip..(hopefully not)

Edited by northwestsnow
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Popular Post
Posted
17 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Downgrade for Sunday with everything shifted slightly south and west. However this does allow for the coldest air to sit further south. The precipitation is slightly less. Any further shifts west and south could eventually le ave most of us dry and cold. One to keep an eye on. Possibly a slightly colder run over all.

One mans downgrade is another mans upgrade!

For me its an upgrade because more people have a chance of snowier weather on the 00z runs. :)

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
22 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Downgrade for Sunday with everything shifted slightly south and west. However this does allow for the coldest air to sit further south. The precipitation is slightly less. Any further shifts west and south could eventually le ave most of us dry and cold. One to keep an eye on. Possibly a slightly colder run over all.

TBH anyway now, regardless of where the event is and marginality, I'm starting to think it wont be as active a front and PPN may be fragmented, ive noticed the last 10 years a lot of these types have ended up like that.

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essexweather Enthusiast

essexweather

Posted
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Upgrades, downgrades when will it end :D

Certainly a shift in the right direction this morning from the GFS and UKMO, getting the colder air as far South and West is important. We worry about T+144 at a later date once (or if) the cold gets established.

Awaiting the ECM :D

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

BBC weather not really showing any large snow events, I know this doesn't mean there won't be any but you'd like to think they'd have mentioned a "possible" heavy snowfall in the coming 5 days!! How do sliders do in early winter compared to late with seas being warmer, will that have any effect I wonder!! 

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pdiddy Enthusiast

pdiddy

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted
11 minutes ago, sausage said:

down grade overnight runs sadly for yorkshire notthwards. even though the synoptics look great.


Any charts to back this up?

 

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted
5 minutes ago, sausage said:

down grade overnight runs sadly for yorkshire notthwards. even though the synoptics look great.

From someone in west lancashire who hasnt seen lying snow since dec '10 i would love nothing more (weather wise) than to see something over the next few days, but if it fails then just cold frosty weather would be fine with me, certainly better than the muck and mud of recent years! This morings 00z gfs is putting places like the welsh marches and shropshire in the perfect bullseye spot....think a treck up the long mynd might be called for!:)

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted
6 minutes ago, pdiddy said:


Any charts to back this up?

 

No,,his flat cap is curling at the edges  and his whippet has only eaten the tripe in the bowl.

Yerkshire Weather Services key tools

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

By Monday morning ECM 850s are back up to the -2c region, it would be a snow to rain event should that slider occur going off that. 

Edited by Ali1977
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
8 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS had a better start near Iceland with better heights there, slightly let down by a bit too flat upstream later but this won't get sorted out for a few days.

Very complicated and rather messy set up but the chance remains for that to deliver some snow.

 

Nick theres  your southward corrections on the gfs amd ukmo which now puts midlands and wales in the firing line!!

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

the uppers look terrible tho!!

 

Problem is with the EC this morning it skips the important part due to 24hrs steps. I imagine uppers will be a couple of degrees colder as that front moves in from the west at say 108hrs. That 120hr chart looks like cold rain/mountain snow for much of England after an intial frontal snow event for lower areas Midlands northwards. Experts feel free to correct me if my interpretation is wrong.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Problem is with the EC this morning it skips the important part due to 24hrs steps. I imagine uppers will be a couple of degrees colder as that front moves in from the west at say 108hrs. That 120hr chart looks like cold rain/mountain snow for much of England after an intial frontal snow event for lower areas Midlands northwards. Experts feel free to correct me if my interpretation is wrong.

You are pretty much spot on i think!and some people are looking at this in the wrong way!!go on meteociel and compare the 120 hour chart to todays 96 hour chart and its clear to see the cold air is slightly further west and the shortwave near iceland is futher west with it sliding even more!!all in all massive upgrades this morning and the sunday monday event could be more news worthy for more wales and midlands than further north!!

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

Uppers aren't everything with this event. Look how much they rise.on the GFS, yet it still gives snow for many. Having the surface cold in place is important.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Oh, change my comment ref no mention of heavier snow on the weather forecast , BBC weather just mentioned a possible significant snowfall on Sunday . ?

Edited by Ali1977
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