Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[bobbydog]

nice little 'trend' appearing in FI - 

we do like a scandi high.

will we have a christmas cold enough to freeze the tentacles off a damp squid?....

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Gfs may be a little progressive in the extended, but make no mistake, the evolution is perfectly plausible towards height rises to our north.

For the second run, gfs op has retrogressed the North Pacific ridge. This effectively releases the anchor on the North American trough, allowing it to drive eastwards and southwards, this is how the deck falls - Pacifc ridge first, blocking to our north then follows,

And the strat output is consistent in retrogressing the Alaskan ridge towards the aleutains in week 2 - any chance of a cross polar ridge as we move forward ?? 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

And the strat output is consistent in retrogressing the Alaskan ridge towards the aleutains in week 2 - any chance of a cross polar ridge as we move forward ?? 

I dont want to put words into Stewarts mouth but it sounds like he is becoming increasingly interested in the last third of December to me

[karlos1983]

Control keeps with the theme of southerly corrections

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Control keeps with the theme of southerly corrections

Yes.. these slight southerly corrections will put more people in the snow zone..

[Methuselah]

Looks promising...BUT not as promising as previous runs have done and is also 48 hours' later:

Edited December 5, 2017 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Will the Beast from the East be licking its lips waiting to devour the UK at christmas??

The 18z thinks so..and I hope so

[karlos1983]

Be interesting to see if we get any ensembles dropping off the cliff in 20 mins time. Any clues showing on De bilt, or to early?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes.. these slight southerly corrections will put more people in the snow zone..

Definitely. We are talking very small distances, a 150-200 mile correction south would put millions more people in for a shout. Not even worth getting worked up about the detail until it actually unfolds before us. 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Be interesting to see if we get any ensembles dropping off the cliff in 20 mins time. Any clues showing on De bilt, or to early?

Just the one absolutely outrageous member on the ECM ens.

Although lots of cold ones right to day 15.

Edited December 5, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[beefy201]

I do love this thread I really do but if some of you guys looked back 3 weeks ago to what was expected today and lookout the window then look out the window in 3 weeks today and your comments today hmmmm

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just the one absolutely outrageous member on the ECM ens.

Saying that, De bilt does have a few very cold runners now showing

[bobbydog]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont want to put words into Stewarts mouth but it sounds like he is becoming increasingly interested in the last third of December to me

have you just heard him singing a Bing Crosby song? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately it doesn't look like the south are going to see much in the way of snow over the coming week or so- PM flow really is of genuine benefit for northern Britain..

That could change tho depending on the track of the Atlantic- still think it will get corrected south but time is ticking on now!

into the medium term and still we are struggling to see enough amplification for cut off highs ..

It’s the first sentence i’m Commenting on.....I think we will all join in along the way.  I think you are in for a belter!

 

BFTP

[pyrotech]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont want to put words into Stewarts mouth but it sounds like he is becoming increasingly interested in the last third of December to me

See my post two days ago, MJO possibly in to a fairly strong phase 7 around 13th of December leads to opportunities around 26th + or - 3 days

Moved out of the COD  and now tracking thru phase 5 (an area where we try to get more mobile weather)

This is why the blocking is a contrast with MJO phase and so we have this interesting set up.

Its this set up that will keep jet stream over west of UK and so keep us cold for another 10 days and then we should be close to the effects of phase 6/7 i suggest that phase 6 is certain but phase 7 just a 50/50 - phase 6 being pretty good for cold and blocking 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Saying that, De bilt does have a few very cold runners now showing

Yes, I was looking at dutch ens but different place but the one that was on the Dutch is interestingly enough on the London ens.

 

 

[fat chad]

5 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

I do love this thread I really do but if some of you guys looked back 3 weeks ago to what was expected today and lookout the window then look out the window in 3 weeks today and your comments today hmmmm

It's what makes this forum so great. If you can detach yourself from the dramatics and toy trowing when it usually doesn't go to plan, then you can enjoy an educated thread... 

[karlos1983]

Things are improving, mild blip getting less mild with each set of ens

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

53 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think he is taking issue with your comment re snow in the south 

Indeed, not issue as may sound a bit strong.....but lol yes issue 

 

BFTP

[karlos1983]

Absolutely nothing wrong with this set!!

Edited December 5, 2017 by karlos1983

[weirpig]

coming into Euro 4 zone now  and as you can see as early as Thursday evening showers starting to turn to snow  Scotland but also Ebgland and north wales

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

You have to say that is a CRACKING set of ens from EC!!!

Probably be a degree or two colder up north too- 

[Daniel*]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18Z FI is fabulous Blue and the first GFS operational i have seen bring this into play (scandy height rises).

The charts toward the end would bring in a very cold high with temps absolutely plummeting !!

 

I think this is the fourth time I’ve seen GFS explore this. We’re following a little piece of string but it’s something. 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

You have to say that is a CRACKING set of ens from EC!!!

Probably be a degree or two colder up north too- 

Cracking set!

You won’t get snow from an easterly though northwest just kidding 

ensembles done, that’s my bedtime lol

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Cracking set!

You won’t get snow from an easterly though northwest just kidding 

ensembles done, that’s my bedtime lol

Haha you might be suprised to hear my favourite wind direction is easterly- produces the goods here more often than not!!

Either way those Ens are brill-lets hope they look the same in the morning