Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Ice Day]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Out buying a shovel it's great that we can discuss who might and might not get snow because it means that the possibility is there. For those that luckout and being down here I am probably one, I hope they will be pleased for the lucky ones. 

Spot on....I'm also in a less favoured area but it would be great for the North West members particularly to get a good dumping....we'll get our turn down here I'm sure.   Anyway, here comes the 18z and time for a pub run special

[feb1991blizzard]

The aforementioned UKMO charts is surface level pressure and precipitation (either rain or snow) at that given timeframe, not cumulated, as far as I am aware.

Edited December 4, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[chicken soup]

55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jesus is that snow?? LOL..in my dreams...and plenty of others i will wager!!

To good to be true this...surely

[khodds]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

As you are a SWesterner like me - this is the last time I know of a major slider that brought snow. Parts of Dorset got a foot from this:

Thanks for the replies. I don’t remember the above one.. guess it means we weren’t too badly hit in Somerset! Hope this up coming situation unfolds in everyone’s favour... eyes ? down for the pub run!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Thats a week away, Too long.

Absolutely!! Plenty of time for upgrades !! 

[captaincroc]

I ain't CreweCold but I am also from Crewe,  work in Crewe but luckily live at 180m on Alsagers Bank so this setup is perfect for me. The extra altitude will just help with cover and intensity of precipitation.  

 

I know for sure he will be excited but we have been burned sooo many times with being just on the wrong side or marginal,  even in 2010 at points.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Does anyone know if the purple shading over areas of the UK represents snow cover or is that just wishful thinking ? Either way that low is definitely going under and would give a pasting to southerners !

 

I think we will go with snow cover 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

Thanks for the replies. I don’t remember the above one.. guess it means we weren’t too badly hit in Somerset! Hope this up coming situation unfolds in everyone’s favour... eyes ? down for the pub run!

got a lot of snow in them days, but that Feb '96 rings no bells, so cannot have got much

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, comet said:

Regardless of what the stats say for our tiny little portion of the globe the ecm  has been less than impressive lately. Having said that all this talk about sliders and possible snow amounts is all academic at this range ( almost a week away) heck even three days out a bit of a lottery. One thing I am sure of is whatever the models are showing today will have changed by tomorrow. UKMO has moved towards GFS this evening and I am fairly sure the ECM will follow suite.

The GFS seems to be the model to follow at the moment the other two models were showing a quite tepid northerly while the GFS stuck to its guns and now the other two have followed suite, Regarding the extended outlook and FI it would be the icing on the cake but to far away to take much notice of at the moment. Certainly something to keep track of though.

You actually force me to check the archive charts for the past week. Not surprisingly ukmo has done best with the northerly as ecm and gfs had it before day 6 although gfs got the trigger low badly wrong for quite a few runs. As far as the diving trough thereafter, gfs and ecm have both been trailing it with ecm actually making a decent fist if it at day 10 (though it went arwy in its days 8/10 output for a coiled, runs thereafter). Gfs has made a poor call on the diving trough the past couple, days although we can't be sure that the 12z are right on this just yet. Ecm was right to call the accelerated  demise of the Atlantic ridging. 

No model is right but to say that gfs is the model to follow is just plain wrong ! 

[northwestsnow]

@Bluearmy...

UKMO day 7 is superb!!!

[Methuselah]

15C in Banchory anyone?

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You actually force me to check the archive charts for the past week. Not surprisingly ukmo has done best with the northerly as ecm and gfs had it before day 6 although gfs got the trigger low badly wrong for quite a few runs. As far as the diving trough thereafter, gfs and ecm have both been trailing it with ecm actually making a decent fist if it at day 10 (though it went arwy in its days 8/10 output for a coiled, runs thereafter). Gfs has made a poor call on the diving trough the past couple, days although we can't be sure that the 12z are right on this just yet. Ecm was right to call the accelerated  demise of the Atlantic ridging. 

No model is right but to say that gfs is the model to follow is just plain wrong ! 

The GFS is a cannon fodder model in my book.  The verification stats proves it.

Edited December 4, 2017 by mulzy

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

As you are a SWesterner like me - this is the last time I know of a major slider that brought snow. Parts of Dorset got a foot from this:

This one also produced imby. I think I was in the sweet spot though. Uppers were more marginal than those currently shown for next week.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

The GFS is a cannon fodder model in my book.  The verification stats proves it.

but I bet you're on here anticipating wanting a good 18Z?

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

The GFS is a cannon fodder model in my book.  The verification stats proves it.

I find GFS is good at picking up a signal very far out then it goes and drops it in typical fashion and then reverts back to it while all the other models jump on. Occasionally GFS finds it feet it did in 2010?

[Team Jo]

Guys can we try and keep off the one liners etc? As fast as I’m moving posta and pming people to explain why I’m moving posts another six pop up and the 18z hasn’t even started yet, and I know everyone is dead excited and everything but please help us out and post in the right place? Pleeeeeeeeeease ?

[mulzy]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but I bet you're on here anticipating wanting a good 18Z?

True that!

[Mokidugway]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

15C in Banchory anyone?

And it's getting better 

And 

Edited December 4, 2017 by Mokidugway

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The GFS is a cannon fodder model in my book.  The verification stats proves it.

Don't let them hear you said that lol

no model is right,but to look for trends is the best way past 4-5 days

[frosty ground]

North West England to London...

[sea swim]

Being in-between Mersey and Dee estuaries/North Wales, we must be the unluckiest here - New Brighton is at mouth of Cheshire Gap - but as always on the coast it will be cold rain, whereas 6 miles inland it’s always a different story with this set-up!

[northwestsnow]

18Z goes for the cheshire gap streamer ..BIG TIME!!

[frosty ground]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

18Z goes for the cheshire gap streamer ..BIG TIME!!

Thinking polar Low....

[snowice]

ECM and GFS very similar deep storm for Scotland.

[Mark wheeler]

Gfs getting kinky all again .

Edited December 4, 2017 by Mark wheeler